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Thread: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    So I'm sitting here watching the Reds, and A-Gon just hit another one out. Obviously, I'd love to see this continue, but a quick scan of his statistical history suggests that he is a streaky hitter who sits at around .300 OBP at the end of the day. He has shown a bit of pop in the past, and my guess is that GABP is a good fit for him and might accentuate his power a little. So here are a few questions for all of you:

    Do we have any reason to believe this could be Alex's career year?
    If so, what has changed to make him better?
    If not, do you expect him to regress back to his career norms?

    There's no question his D is already making him a valuable player. I'm just curious whether people think his O could be for real. I'm skeptical, but hope springs eternal.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    GABP will inflate his numbers some.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    So I'm sitting here watching the Reds, and A-Gon just hit another one out. Obviously, I'd love to see this continue, but a quick scan of his statistical history suggests that he is a streaky hitter who sits at around .300 OBP at the end of the day. He has shown a bit of pop in the past, and my guess is that GABP is a good fit for him and might accentuate his power a little. So here are a few questions for all of you:

    Do we have any reason to believe this could be Alex's career year?
    If so, what has changed to make him better?
    If not, do you expect him to regress back to his career norms?

    There's no question his D is already making him a valuable player. I'm just curious whether people think his O could be for real. I'm skeptical, but hope springs eternal.
    You are right, his history suggests that he will be a streaky player so you can't count on this hot streak lasting an entire season. I think the GABP effect helps out, plus he has some pop so it's not supring that he's been a sink or swim kinda guy.

    That said, I hope those who don't care for the Gonzo singing can enjoy this nice suprise instead of quickly dimissing it as "just a hot flash".
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  5. #4
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    and he has hit 20-something hrs in the past, not sure he can again, but its possible as is higher OBP.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    Since he's signed to a three year deal and if GABP will help with his power numbers, why should only this year be the proverbial "career year"? I wonder, too, about a comment Narron made when talking about batting Gonzo higher in the order. Narron pondered how much Gonzalez batted 8th in his career and how that can affect you numbers, particularly in the NL.

    I think someone else noted this, but we don't need a tremendous amount of offensive production from Gonzalez if he's performing at peak defensively. That would be gravy.

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    i expect him to hit .250 .330 25 HRS in GABP

    with gold glove defense thats plenty adequate

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh View Post
    i expect him to hit .250 .330 25 HRS in GABP

    with gold glove defense thats plenty adequate
    He'd SLG about .417 by by calculations. Thatd be decent for a SS.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

  9. #8
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    He'll need to hit for a higher average than .250 to pull off a .330 OBP, though. Somewhere around .260-.270 might get him in the neighborhood, but he just doesn't walk much.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I think someone else noted this, but we don't need a tremendous amount of offensive production from Gonzalez if he's performing at peak defensively. That would be gravy.
    I noted it, but I'm not sure I agree. As a D-only player, I think he's overpriced. If he could add a modicum of offense to go along with it, I'd feel a lot better about that $14 million / 3 year contract.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    BTW, he just made it interesting in the 9th against Houston with his 7th HR, 2nd of the game! At this rate, he'll definitely be worth the price tag!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    GABP will inflate his numbers some.
    Even if GABP inflates his numbers, he is still eventually going to fall back to earth pretty hard. The guy's career OPS in .691 but he is OPSing at .930 for the season. I am enjoying his hot streak, but he's going to regress at some point.

  13. #12
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    I'm amazed. If he can continue to slug he'll be very valuable. I was on the fence to against this move, but it looks pretty good I admit.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    For what it's worth, an average of the 5 big projection systems suggets AGlove will do this in '07: .282/.339/.463.......
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    If this team keeps playing the way they are playing, then whatever Gonzalez does doesn't really matter. Give me Ws any day.

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    Re: Alex Gonzalez - Regression to Mean?

    buy low - sell high.
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