What's the deal with Joey Votto?

[Stingray]

doug, I don't think M2 disagree's. But he is going through some adjustment. Granted, the guy seems to get off to bad Aprils every year, but that may be just adjustment times. If he just is a slow starter, better get a manager that understands the hitter. Narron probably would have bench Votto this year for example(and screwed around with a great May so far).
Votto is most likely not going to be a plus 1st baseman in 2008. But as a 25 year old in 2009 he may very well be something else. If that is what Krivsky thinks, he better be paving the way for him sometime over the next year.

But Krivsky's evaluation skills are in question. I worry that he will trade Votto for peanuts and then the guy turns into a superstar

I was just about to post the same thing as your comments that I put in bold type.

[M2]

M2, no offense, but you are WAY off on this one.

Joey Votto is actually hitting the ball harder than he did last year, which can be seen by the fact he is hitting 4% more Line Drives than last year. The difference is his BABIP is about 70 points lower than it was last year (but the gap is closing as the season moves on because well, thats what happens when you hit the crap out of the ball but make more outs on line drives than you make hits on line drives for the first 5 weeks of the season). He also just got contacts earlier this week and 'is seeing the ball much better'. Votto is on the verge of blowing up right now and is destroying the ball in May so far to the tune of a .383/.482/.553 line with a 1/1 bb/k ratio.

A) 4% over this small a sample size is meaningless. He could be at -4% inside a day.

B) Not all line drives were created equal.

C) Votto had a .228 ISOpw last season. This year it's .164. That is the very definition of hitting the ball with less authority than last season.

D) Nowhere did I state he won't do better as the season progresses. In fact, I'd expect him to do better as he gets used to the level. He's got talent. He'll adjust. It's part of the learning curve. Unlike 2005, he's not hacking. That'll pay dividends.

E) He was heating up before the contacts. I expect those things will make about as much of a difference with him as Lasik surgery made for Brandon Larson.

[dougdirt]

A) 4% over this small a sample size is meaningless. He could be at -4% inside a day.

B) Not all line drives were created equal.

C) Votto had a .228 ISOpw last season. This year it's .164. That is the very definition of hitting the ball with less authority than last season.

D) Nowhere did I state he won't do better as the season progresses. In fact, I'd expect him to do better as he gets used to the level. He's got talent. He'll adjust. It's part of the learning curve. Unlike 2005, he's not hacking. That'll pay dividends.

E) He was heating up before the contacts. I expect those things will make about as much of a difference with him as Lasik surgery made for Brandon Larson.

A) Not with 100 at bats in a season. You wont see a swing in the numbers like that.

B) true, but over the course the numbers hold fairly true.

c) You don't think that 6 or 7 hits wouldn't boost his isoP?

[M2]

c) You don't think that 6 or 7 hits wouldn't boost his isoP?

He's 16 TBs behind where he'd need to be to match his 2006 SLG. It's not just hit luck. He's not driving the ball over fielder's heads and out of the park as frequently as he was last season.

That could change. I hope it changes, but this isn't a case of a few more singles falling in and he's doing fine. His power numbers are down.