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Thread: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    cincrazy's "blind optimism" thread got me thinking about the 2007 Reds.

    I guess in a sense, my thoughts range right now from this team is overperforming in some aspects, performing just as I had expected, and underperforming in other areas.

    Overperforming

    Kyle Lohse.

    His W/L record doesn't indicate how well he's pitched for us to date, but he's giving us quality starts and keeping us in ballgames.

    Alex Gonzalez.

    We knew what we were getting in his glove, but his bat has well exceeded my expectations, as well as I'm sure that of others.

    Josh Hamilton.

    The kid had never sniffed a PA above High A, and we all know his story. ESPN can't stop talking about him, and I think it's good for Josh that he has some sort of female significant other, or else Steve Phillips would definitely want to date him.

    David Weathers.

    He's been far better than I've expected, but maybe my standards for him were ridiculously low coming into this season.

    Ken Griffey Jr.

    Everyday he seems to be more comfortable in RF, and he's looking better at the plate. Again, my expectations weren't high for him this year, so this could be my low standards again.

    Status Quo

    Adam Dunn.

    He's giving us what we've come to expect from him. He's gonna strikeout a lot, he's gonna walk a lot, he'll probably hit for low average, I'm sure he might put up sub par numbers with RISP, but he's producing runs at his career norm.

    Bronson Arroyo.

    So far, he's repeating his 2006 success, and I anticipate he'll continue this trend for the remainder of 2007. My only hope is that he doesn't pitch much more than 225 IP, for I fear he'll become damaged goods due to overuse.

    Scott Hatteberg/Jeff Conine.

    This platoon has been serviceable, since our best option at 1B continues to man LF. Neither is hurting us offensively or defensively, and is most likely just the stop gap for Joey Votto, when he makes the permanent move to the big club in 2008.

    Underperforming

    Brandon Phillips.

    You're not an OBP guy, I get that, but you're not a SLG guy either. Get that OPS closer to .800 and with your defense, then you return to being a *gasp* premier option at 2B. Granted, if Narron batted you between 5-8 where you belong, this might be a different story, but you have zero business batting between 1-4. I know, I know, this isn't your fault, but you need to accept your role and try to get on base. Please?

    Aaron Harang.

    Maybe Narron used you too much last year? Maybe you have a case of the Homer Bailey disease, and you've fallen deeply in love with your fastball? Regardless, you're not fooling NL hitters right now, and you're underperforming as our #2. You're gonna bounce back, I have faith in you, but right now, you're not putting up the numbers we expect out of you.

    Ryan Freel.

    I love that you sacrifice your body. I love the effort. But... let's be a little smarter out there? Let's be smarter on the base paths, and let's not try and make the impossible play everytime out in the field. You need to get on base and not make outs. You're a super sub, and you need to accept that. You're important to this team, that's why we gave you the extension, so embrace your role and maximize your production. I know you'll bounce back too, you're just not an everyday player.

    The Bullpen.

    We know their story too. Nothing to see here, move along...

    David Ross.

    I knew you were going to regress to a career norm, but you didn't have to regress this much... I think you're good defensively (except when handling a play at the plate), and you seem to call a good game, but wow are you a black hole offensively this year. I hope you turn the corner and improve, but I just don't see it happening.



    -----

    I'm sure I missed some guys, but these were just some thoughts off the top of my head.

    Feel free to chime in as to who or whom you think is overperforming, doing what we expect, or stinking up the joint far more than we expected.

    Thanks RZ

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Missed EE on the underperforming list

    there just isn't a lot of talent on this club.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Underperforming: Edwin Encarnacion
    I was expecting a big season from EdE. I know there is usually a sophmore slump but he played winter ball and did very well from the reports I read and got off to a good start in spring training.

    Underperforming: Todd Coffey
    Maybe skipping in from the bullpen will change his luck.

    Overperforming: Eric Milton
    I know I may get ridiculed for saying this but my expectations were for him to be about 0-4 with an ERA of 7 or 8 at this point. He's kept the Reds in ballgames. If he was some rookie that we called up for the fifth spot in the rotation we would probably be ok with the performance. Since he is Milton and getting paid way to much, we are more critical. In the end he is doing better than I expected and if he can keep it up we may be able to trade him towards the trade deadline. (Just a hope/dream)

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Missed EE on the underperforming list

    there just isn't a lot of talent on this club.
    I left EE off for the simple reason that I don't see him staying on the Reds the entire 2007 season. He seems to have fallen out of the good graces of Jerry Narron, and I have to think that if Krivsky can trade him, he will. I hope this isn't the case, as I think EE will turn it around, and should be a staple for the Reds for numerous years.

    However, this team as a whole just plain isn't good. I had them pegged for 90 losses, and as they currently sit with a .438 W%, I'm only 1 game off, as that projects to 91 losses.

    This team as a whole is equal to exactly what I feared.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    This team as a whole is equal to exactly what I feared.
    I surmised before the season the that recipe for success included repeat career years from a number of players. In addition, the bullpen was clearly not addressed and we have seen the results of that failure.

    Just think how bad the Reds would be if good fortune hadn't smiled on them with Hamilton. The real season is likely to be over by the end of the west coast swing.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Aaron Harang.

    Maybe Narron used you too much last year? Maybe you have a case of the Homer Bailey disease, and you've fallen deeply in love with your fastball? Regardless, you're not fooling NL hitters right now, and you're underperforming as our #2. You're gonna bounce back, I have faith in you, but right now, you're not putting up the numbers we expect out of you.
    His K rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his HR rate is down.

    He's done everything he can control to pitch well.

    His BABIP (.370) is way up, but that's a matter of bad luck.

    His DIPS ERA is 2.76, best in the NL.

    Harang has pitched exceedingly well.

    He'll start getting better results if he continues to do this well.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    His K rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his HR rate is down.

    He's done everything he can control to pitch well.

    His BABIP (.370) is way up, but that's a matter of bad luck.

    His DIPS ERA is 2.76, best in the NL.

    Harang has pitched exceedingly well.

    He'll start getting better results if he continues to do this well.
    most people just don't seem to want to factor in "luck" when looking at performance even though there are some stats that do a good job of removing "luck" from standard statistics.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    most people just don't seem to want to factor in "luck" when looking at performance even though there are some stats that do a good job of removing "luck" from standard statistics.
    SInce everyone loves to use these stats to prove that Cormier and Majewski were lucky last year before the trades (they were), they shouldn't be ignored when they actually favour us.

    Harang is the least of our probelms. Anyone who has seen him pitch this year can see the talent. And the fact that usually a bunch of crappy hits does him in (not that 1 loss indicates that he hasn't still been able to deal with a healthy dose of bad luck).

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    It wouldn't be by much, but I'd put Belisle in the slightly overperforming category. While not mind-blowing, for the time-being, he has given us a 4 starter to throw out there that hasn't embarassed us on the starting pitching front. We all knew Milton was a 5; it's just nice to have someone that actually makes that happen in the rotation. At the beginning of the year, it was really looking like Milton would have been our 4.
    No one expects the butterfly

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I left EE off for the simple reason that I don't see him staying on the Reds the entire 2007 season. He seems to have fallen out of the good graces of Jerry Narron, and I have to think that if Krivsky can trade him, he will. I hope this isn't the case, as I think EE will turn it around, and should be a staple for the Reds for numerous years.

    .
    How has he "fallen out of the good graces of Jerry Narron"? He's second in number of games played, it's not like he's not getting his chances. Some people think Narron moved him down in the order because he hates him, I think he did it to help take pressure off of him.

    So he sat him last night against Oswalt. He's been horrible against Oswalt and Freel had been hitting well in the last two games. IMHO I think it's completely the opposite of Jerry not liking him, I think Jerry is just trying to do what he thinks is best to help Edwin, because he wants him to succeed. You may not agree with the way he's doing it, I may not agree with some of the things he's doing, but I don't believe it's because he has any ill will toward EE.

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    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    His K rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his HR rate is down.

    He's done everything he can control to pitch well.

    His BABIP (.370) is way up, but that's a matter of bad luck.

    His DIPS ERA is 2.76, best in the NL.

    Harang has pitched exceedingly well.

    He'll start getting better results if he continues to do this well.
    Although he does have 4 W, which is the most "lucky" stat of them all. For that reason, I don't think Aaron considers himself too unlucky these days. His other numbers will turn around, and he'll still have those 4 W to build on. Could be another 16-18 W season by that measure.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Member GullyFoyle's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post

    Josh Hamilton.

    ESPN can't stop talking about him.....
    Not to get to far off-topic, but I can never find ESPN mentioning Josh. I TIVO BB Tonight, watch a fair amount of SportsCenter and have heard his name in passing only during the Reds recaps. Have I just been unlucky?

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by GullyFoyle View Post
    Not to get to far off-topic, but I can never find ESPN mentioning Josh. I TIVO BB Tonight, watch a fair amount of SportsCenter and have heard his name in passing only during the Reds recaps. Have I just been unlucky?
    Lately they've mentioned him a lot in BBTN, Cold Pizza (Which is now ESPN FirstTake), but not as much on SportsCenter.

    He was mentioned on BBTN's best team for under $28 Mil.

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    The team as a whole is about what I expected, starters a little better, bullpen a little worse, offense about the same.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Better than, equal to, or worse than you thought?

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    How has he "fallen out of the good graces of Jerry Narron"? He's second in number of games played, it's not like he's not getting his chances. Some people think Narron moved him down in the order because he hates him, I think he did it to help take pressure off of him.

    So he sat him last night against Oswalt. He's been horrible against Oswalt and Freel had been hitting well in the last two games. IMHO I think it's completely the opposite of Jerry not liking him, I think Jerry is just trying to do what he thinks is best to help Edwin, because he wants him to succeed. You may not agree with the way he's doing it, I may not agree with some of the things he's doing, but I don't believe it's because he has any ill will toward EE.
    Ahhhh, let's not let common sense get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.


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