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Thread: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

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    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Bullpen usage

    This is a good point from reader David Short, what do you guys think?


    Starter goes 7 1/3 inning.
    Reliever A comes in and gives up a walk to the only batter he faces.
    Reliever B comes in. Gets an out and gives up a three run bomb. Gets
    the next batter.
    Reliever C finishes the game without a pinch hitter for B.

    7 1/3 inning from the starter and 3 relievers to finish the last five
    outs. By my count 2 other guys warmed up. It may have been more.

    Reliever A has been used in 4 of the last 5 days.
    Reliever B has been used the last 4 days in a row.

    Not ONE of those switches was caused by a reliever getting tired or
    being ineffective or by a pinch hitter coming in. (That's not saying
    the relievers were effective, but that the switches were not caused by that.)

    Check out the games appeared vs innings pitched for the reds
    pen. This is before last nights game. Almost every single guy in the
    pen is being used as a loogy, lefty one out guy. Nobody is averaging
    an inning or more per appearance.

    David Weathers 13 games 12 2/3 innings
    Todd Coffey 18 games 15 2/3 innings
    Kirk Saarloos 17 games 15 2/3 innings
    Victor Santos 14 games 13 1/3 innings
    Coutlangus 13 9 1/3
    Cormier 6 3
    Salmon 2 2 2/3
    Burton 1 1/3

    The only guy averaging an inning per appearance is Brad Salmon who
    only has two appearances. These guys are pitching ALL the time. Even
    when they don't appear in the game, they warm up. It's no wonder they
    started the season strong and then started getting pounded. It's a
    usage problem.

    Compare and contrast with Tony LaRussa over in St. Louis. La Russa is
    famous for micromanaging matchups and swapping relievers in and out.
    Five guys in the St. Louis pen are averaging more than an inning an
    outing, Thompson, Franklin, Hancock Jimninez and Dove. It's more
    sustainable for the guys doing the throwing. They know when they'll
    be in the game and their arms have time to heal when they aren't
    being called on to throw every night.

    93 innings from the Cardinal bullpen. 82 from the reds. 96 innings
    out of the brewers relievers...3 of them with more innings than
    appearances. mets have the best pen in the game right now..94
    innings....four of their pitchers including the closer are regularly
    going an inning or more every time out.

    3 of the top 10 pitching appearance leaders are on the reds. With the
    starting pitchers throwing as well as they have, it's inconcievable
    that the reds have that many guys on the leaderboard for appearances.
    It's not uncommon for the reds to get 7 innings from the starter, use
    3 pitcher and have 6 guys warm up. You can't win like that. Guy's
    arms will fall off.

    It's maddening that the cincy press hasn't picked up on this. They
    are following the party line that there is no talent in the bullpen
    because there is no recognized stud closer. It wouldn't matter. you
    could have Charlton, Dibble and Myers down there and WITH THIS USAGE
    PATTERN, the bullpen would suck. All three of those guys averaged
    well more than an inning per appearance in 90. Same with Williamson,
    Graves and Sullivan in 99.

    Till the usage pattern gets fixed, the reds will not be able to
    establish any kind of bullpen success. Without a good bullpen, the
    team can't succeed deep into the post season. Frankly, it's the
    biggest organizational problem they have right now. You can swap the
    names all you want. It won't matter.

    It would be nice to have the guys carve out roles for themselves, but
    look what happens when they do pitch well. Chris Hammond last year
    was the one that made me sit up and take notice.

    Look at his game log for 06.

    He had a couple of bad outings early and pretty much got buried in
    the pen. Then he started pitching better till he got to be Jerry's
    "hot hand" through May and all of a sudden he was being called on
    every night in June and...guess what, he fell apart unable to handle
    the workload. By the 80th game of the season, he had appeared or
    warmed up in more than half of them and he was ineffective and
    released and "sucked."

    If you carve out a role in this system you get overexposed, your arm
    gets destroyed and suddenly...you're a no-talent ineffective bum.

    Todd Coffey is the second verse same as the first. The guy CAN
    pitch. He just can't pitch every night and be expected to be
    effective. Longer outings less often. They won't get better till it happens.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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  3. #2
    Member Crosley68's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    I have been biting my lip up until now.............but I agree with this. I have no confidence in Narron's ability to manage a bullpen.
    Let's play two!!!

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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Or, as I posted two days ago:


    Team pitching stats and using the pen

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Reds overall have a 4.03 ERA, getting worse, ninth in NL, not terrible.

    The Reds starters pitch 6.3 innings on average per game. Tied for best in league. Reds starters have 3.82 ERA, ninth in league, not terrible.

    The bullpen, therefore, does not have tons of innings pitched. The starters pitch a lot of innings, therefore the pen pitches fewer.

    However, it seems to me that for relatively few innings, the Reds relievers have a ton of relief appearances. I don't have the overall numbers. But

    The major league individual high in relief appearances is 18. Consider the following numbers for the Reds:

    Coffey 18
    Saarloos 16
    Stanton 15
    Santos 14
    Cout 13
    Weathers 12

    For a team with a lot of starter innings, these numbers seem quite high to me. Again, I don't know the overall relief appearance stats, but just flipping through other teams' numbers, these individual appearance stats seem quite high.

    Just looking at the Reds pen, I don't think the individuals are as bad as they've pitched. The bullpen has the worst relief ERA in the league and, looking at the personnel, I have to wonder if overuse is contributing to the problem.

    Also, using WHIP, a key stat for relievers, only two relievers' are badly out of line. Santos has a 1.73 WHIP, which is quite poor. Coffey's is 1.60, which is also poor, and has a big impact considering that he is used so much. (In Coffey's case, I wonder what his WHIP would be if used less often.)

    Another stat -- the Reds pitching staff has a .99 GB/FB ratio. The most fly ball oriented pitching staff in the league. Since they play at GABP, this isn't too good.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by Kc61 : 05-06-2007 at 02:51 PM.

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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    There's a discussion of the same topic on Reds Live

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57668
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.
    And that's the question--can a leopard change his spots?

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Marty last night:

    "What's sad is, this bullpen may eventually get this manager fired."

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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    That's great analysis.

    Just because a guy doesn't actually come in the game or pitch very long, doesn't mean he's not getting worn out by warming up every night, and coming in to pitch.

    Narron looks at IP. He needs to pay attention to appearances, and how many times a guy warms up.
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.
    I too think this is grasping at straws (changing the usage pattern), but I'm willing to give it a shot.

    I might give the theory more credence if Jerry were to keep this pattern through the end of June and Coffey then started to blow up. Then I could say to myself, yeah, he's probably been reduced to a ragarm by this overusage.

    However, I'm just not sure I can buy 15-16 innings of work plus the warm up tosses as being the cause of a tired or overworked arm.

    I'm all for throwing crap at the wall (McBeth, Salmon, Medlock) and seeing what sticks; this season's in the crapper anyway. It's like getting June out of the way early this season!

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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    However, I'm just not sure I can buy 15-16 innings of work plus the warm up tosses as being the cause of a tired or overworked arm!
    Yup. At this point in the year, everyone should be fresh enough to shoulder heavy workloads. Long term, it isn't good for anyone -- but this early in the season, arm fatigue shouldn't be hurting anyone's performances.

    I'm more interested in why Todd Coffey has become completely ineffective this year as opposed to Narron this or Narron that.
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    I just thought I'd toss the following out there for anybody interested. People are free to draw up their own conclusions what this means and whether or not it relates to any of the information that dfs has posted here and on Trent's blog ...

    2006 NL average IP per relief appearance = 1.05 innings

    2006 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.99 innings
    2007 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.82 innings
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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I just thought I'd toss the following out there for anybody interested. People are free to draw up their own conclusions what this means and whether or not it relates to any of the information that dfs has posted here and on Trent's blog ...

    2006 NL average IP per relief appearance = 1.05 innings

    2006 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.99 innings
    2007 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.82 innings
    I think it's a combination of the Reds crappy relief pitching and Narron's tendency to overmanage.
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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    I think it's a combination of the Reds crappy relief pitching and Narron's tendency to overmanage.
    Innings pitched may be a bit deceptive though based upon the efficiency/success of a bullpen to retire batters and pick up outs. If a reliever cannot get outs, they'll be replaced before piling up any substantial innings pitched.

    So with that, I'll take it a step further ...

    2006 NL average batters faced per relief appearance = 4.57

    2006 Reds average batters faced per relief appearance = 4.39
    2007 Reds average batters faced per relief appearance = 3.61
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    Thought I'd post the Orioles and Braves:

    Game...IP.....ERA

    Baltimore

    18....12.2.....2.13
    17....13.1.....4.73
    16....14.1.....5.02
    15....15.1.....4.11
    15....14.1.....3.77
    6.......5.0.....1.08
    3.......3.1.....5.40
    2.......4.0....15.75
    1.......2.0.....9.00

    Atlanta

    16....15.1....3.52
    16....13.2....5.27
    14....13.1....1.35
    13....11.1....3.97
    11.....9.0.....3.00
    11....15.0....4.20
    9......14.1....2.51
    7.......3.2.....4.91
    5.......3.0.....6.00
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis...

    I guess Stanton was aware of Jerry's habits, since he got his option to vest based on appearances, vs innings pitched

    Pretty cool that one of our own made the blog.. Don't let it go to your head, Dave
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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