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Thread: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    According to a computer simulation at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...ps_oddspec.php

    ouch!
    .

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  3. #2
    Mod Law zombie-a-go-go's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    That's why they play the games.

    Well, why most of them play the games. Shackleford plays to get chicks, apparently.
    "It's easier to give up. I'm not a very vocal player. I lead by example. I take the attitude that I've got to go out and do it. Because of who I am, I've got to give everything I've got to come back."
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    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%
    seems kind of high

  5. #4
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Here's the question Wayne Krivsky needs to be asking himself - "Do I have a 77-51 ballclub?"

    If he doesn't think his team can play at least .600 ball from here on out, then it's time to start worrying about 2008. That's a hard admission to make in May. IMO, you've got to wait until June to see if the club can surprise you.

    Perhaps mothballing Milton and getting some more production from 3B will lead to a winning brand of baseball. But things need to change quickly.

    The Mets and Braves are making it clear the NL Wild Card will not be easy pickings in 2008. The Brewers look to be for real. The Cubs are playing well. You've got to figure the Cardinals and/or the Astros will get their houses in order too. This is not last year when you could sneak into October.

    It puts a lot of pressure on a club like the Reds. They've got to play unqualified good baseball in order to make a go of contention this year. So far they haven't been able to do that and time is running short on getting it started.

    We're probably looking a situation where either the Reds climb back up to .500 over the next month or Adam Dunn is gone by July 31st.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  6. #5
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Here's the question Wayne Krivsky needs to be asking himself - "Do I have a 77-51 ballclub?"

    If he doesn't think his team can play at least .600 ball from here on out, then it's time to start worrying about 2008. That's a hard admission to make in May. IMO, you've got to wait until June to see if the club can surprise you.

    Perhaps mothballing Milton and getting some more production from 3B will lead to a winning brand of baseball. But things need to change quickly.

    The Mets and Braves are making it clear the NL Wild Card will not be easy pickings in 2008. The Brewers look to be for real. The Cubs are playing well. You've got to figure the Cardinals and/or the Astros will get their houses in order too. This is not last year when you could sneak into October.

    It puts a lot of pressure on a club like the Reds. They've got to play unqualified good baseball in order to make a go of contention this year. So far they haven't been able to do that and time is running short on getting it started.

    We're probably looking a situation where either the Reds climb back up to .500 over the next month or Adam Dunn is gone by July 31st.
    Good post, gosh when you put it like that it sure does look bleak. 77-51? There's no way. After Wayne determines if he believes the team can make that type of run, he has to envision the next couple of years if he hasn't already. There's no reason to have a firesale for the sake of having a firesale is you are having a bad season. If he believes that Dunn is a key component to this team in the next few years and can be signed for a reasonable price there's no reason to trade him. I just hope that important players aren't given away simply because there is a demand for them and you won't make the playoffs this year. If Wayne thinks he can build a team to compete in 2008, I would think Dunn would have to be included.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Here's the question Wayne Krivsky needs to be asking himself - "Do I have a 77-51 ballclub?"

    If he doesn't think his team can play at least .600 ball from here on out, then it's time to start worrying about 2008. That's a hard admission to make in May. IMO, you've got to wait until June to see if the club can surprise you.

    Perhaps mothballing Milton and getting some more production from 3B will lead to a winning brand of baseball. But things need to change quickly.

    The Mets and Braves are making it clear the NL Wild Card will not be easy pickings in 2008. The Brewers look to be for real. The Cubs are playing well. You've got to figure the Cardinals and/or the Astros will get their houses in order too. This is not last year when you could sneak into October.

    It puts a lot of pressure on a club like the Reds. They've got to play unqualified good baseball in order to make a go of contention this year. So far they haven't been able to do that and time is running short on getting it started.

    We're probably looking a situation where either the Reds climb back up to .500 over the next month or Adam Dunn is gone by July 31st.
    Well, the Reds *ARE* 9-4 in games decided by 4+ runs, which is a great sign (.692 winning percentage). A 77-51 run isn't totally out of the question, quite frankly.

    What has been killing them are the tossups. The club is 6-16 (!!) in games decided by 3 runs or less. A lot of that is due to the bullpen, but a lot of that is probably randomness. I don't expect the Reds to continue winning close games at a 27% clip for the rest of the season. More likely, a big regression to the mean will occur.

    Just as a point of reference, Milwaukee is 16-5 in games decided by 3 runs or less, 8-5 in 4+ runs. The Brewers are due for a big-time regression to the mean, but in the other direction.

  8. #7
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    It isn't over till it's over
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    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    4.5%, huh?

    That was the same odds Vegas posted on me gettin any in the year 2007. I still haven't won that bet.
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  10. #9
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Seriously, the 99 Reds started off close to the same way, got hot right about now and rode it to 96 wins when a lot of us didn't expect they had that run in them.

    Anything is possible - 77-51, I guess we'll see.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
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    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
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  11. #10
    Mod Law zombie-a-go-go's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    Anything is possible - 77-51, I guess we'll see.
    76-51, now.

    Anyone smell that magic?
    "It's easier to give up. I'm not a very vocal player. I lead by example. I take the attitude that I've got to go out and do it. Because of who I am, I've got to give everything I've got to come back."
    -Ken Griffey Jr.

  12. #11
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    seems kind of high
    That's exactly what I was thinking. I think the computer simulation is flawed.
    I would guess that it's less than 1%.

    Has any team ever won the division after being 10 games back on May 9?

    I really doubt the wildcard is coming from the Central either, even though the NL Central teams have a huge advantage by playing each other more frequently, thanks to the unbalanced schedule.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #12
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    Seriously, the 99 Reds started off close to the same way, got hot right about now and rode it to 96 wins when a lot of us didn't expect they had that run in them.

    Anything is possible - 77-51, I guess we'll see.
    Man, I would love to have that 99 bullpen for this team. I would also swap every position player, except for Dunn and maybe Phillips. The rotation is probably a push, although this year's club has a chance to be better. Too close to call right now.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #13
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%



    So you're saying there is a chance!

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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    equal to the chance that Terry Lee makes the Reds hall of fame

  16. #15
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: odds of Reds reaching postseason are 4.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    That's exactly what I was thinking. I think the computer simulation is flawed.
    I would guess that it's less than 1%.

    Has any team ever won the division after being 10 games back on May 9?

    I really doubt the wildcard is coming from the Central either, even though the NL Central teams have a huge advantage by playing each other more frequently, thanks to the unbalanced schedule.
    A computer simulation can't be flawed...it is a simulation. It's as good as the data you put into it. In this case, its based on what these guys call thrid order wins which actually gives the REDS a good shot (they are 19.2 -15.8 using this metric or about 0.549 win percent). I guess its probably more likely that the team plays worse from here on...but has a better record to show for it (if that makes sense).

    YES, plenty of teams have won the division or gone to the playoffs after being behind that much.

    The yankees were back I believe 13 games in August of 1978...and won the division. The Astros were at 15-30 in late May 2005 and won the wild card.
    There are many cases.

    I agree that the wildcard is probably not coming from the Central, but that's because the teams are relatively even. Its more likely to get two teams with a good record in the NL East, where everyone can beat up on the Nationals.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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