Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Sarasota, Fl
    Posts
    229

    Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    The recent optioning of EE started me thinking once again about the Reds future. I’ve been a Reds fan all my life. During that time, I’ve gone through many long bleak periods (1940 till the mid 60’s for example), but, until the reserve clause was outlawed (thanks Curt Flood), there was always hope for the future. Now the Reds are involved in another long bleak period. Up until this year I haven’t seen much hope for the Reds near term future.

    The Reds can not hope to win by signing top free agents(they’re going to go to the wealthy teams). For the last 10 to 15 years the approach has been to patch together teams with declining, mid priced, veterans coupled with the few players we’ve developed within our minor league system. The success of that approach has been startlingly underwhelming.

    This year our minor league system is the strongest I’ve seen in my 68+ years as a Reds fan. That, coupled with a young core at the ML level, give the Reds a window starting no later than 09 to field a strong contender. It’s sort of interesting that a good share of the credit(the minors) belongs to the much maligned Dan O’Brien. I made the following comments in a recent thread which outline my thoughts on building and sustaining a Reds winner:


    1. Heavy emphasis on player development – Worldwide(US, Latin America, Asia) Scouting, Trading for youth, Draft, etc
    2. Keep your players in the minors until they’re fully ready(minimize the development required in the majors)
    3. Identify and sign to contract extensions(that last thru the first 2 or 3 years of free agency) key players early in their Arb years
    4. When a player has reached the peak of his cost/performance value trade him at the deadline for multiple AA prospects(I’d want 3 very good young AA prospects for Dunn)



    My concern is that WK doesn’t blow the current opportunity trying for another quick fix. BC should insure the Reds capitalize on this opportunity by:



    1. Recognize that all chance for this year is gone. There is NO quick fix that will allow this team to get back in the race. Don’t give up any high ceiling prospects unless you’re getting a similar return (no aging veterans).
    2. Identify, keep, and nuture the young ML core(Arroyo, Harang, Belise?, Coffey, EE, Phillips, Hamilton)
    3. Determine Dunn’s intent. If he’ll sign a three year extension at a reasonable cost(around $10M/yr), do so. If not look for the most favorable time to trade him before his option runs out next year, I’d want at least a BA top10 AA player plus a couple of high ceiling high A players.
    4. Same as #3 for Loshe, keep at a much lower salary than Dunn or trade for a BA top 50 AA player plus a good high A prospect.
    5. Use the rest of 07 to determine the value of the ML & minor league players whose age, performance, and experience suggest a thorough trail at the ML level(Coutlangus, Salmon, McBeth, Bray, Majewski, Medlock, Livingston, Saarlos?, Keppinger, etc ).
    6. Resist the temptation to bring up the true gems(Bailey, Bruce, Votto?) or young guys who could use more time in the minors(for example Dumatrait who’s coming back from injury) too early.
    7. Identify areas of future weakness(SS, C, Closer) within the system and look for ways to fill them(draft, trade, etc)
    8. Finally get a management team oriented to developing and playing younger players(I don’t think that team is WK & JN). Although a mix of good veterans(Gonzo?) is still desirable.


    I don’t consider myself an expert talent evaluator so the players I’ve show in parenthesis above are for illustrative purposes only.
    Last edited by Stingray; 05-15-2007 at 03:52 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    1,640

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    Resist the temptation to bring up the true gems(Bailey, Bruce, Votto?) or young guys who could use more time in the minors(for example Dumatrait who’s coming back from injury) too early.
    I agree with 99% of what you've written. This being the exception. I agree with what you wrote, but not the example of Dumatrait.

    Dumatrait's injury was in 2004. That's 3 years ago. IIRC correctly he is now in his LAST option year. While there's no rush to promote him (I don't think much of him as a prospect) there no reason to pamper him or keep him down on the farm in order to develop. He's 26 and he is what he is.

    At AA last year Dumatrait seemed to be able to reach back and dial up some extra velocity and movement ...oh 10% of the time or so. It was unhittable when he did it, but he couldn't do it consistently. You hate to slot guys into relief after spending all their time as starters, but I have to wonder if he might be better suited in that role.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,682

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    I agree with most of this, although I think you are being a little harsh on Krivsky. He really is following that blue print. He is not rushing kids to the majors. He is obviously enhancing scouting and development. He has signed key guys (Harang, Arroyo, the shortstop, to four year deals.)

    I think he realized that signing guys like Stanton to two year deals is a stop gap move. (So far, he miscalculated Stanton's effectiveness, but I understand his idea.)

    The key point you make is number 4. Krivsky did an excellent job with guys like RA and Schoenweiss picking up extra draft choices. But to get lots of good youngsters in he will have to decide when to trade veterans for youth. I don't know if Dunn should go -- he is having a good year -- but WK will have to trade guys at key moments to maximize their market value.

    I think the Reds current slide is almost 100 percent the result of bad pitching. The bullpen mostly, but also recently the starters. Only Arroyo and Weathers have been consistently good this year, maybe Cout as a loogy. Harang will be ok, but still has been shaky this year. If WK needs to learn one thing -- and maybe he will -- good pitching requires a lot of money or fantastic scouting. There is no middle of the road for pitching.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-15-2007 at 04:21 PM.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,866

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    I like your thinking, although I think this team may be closer than you think. In other words, think '08 rather than '09. Sure, all the younger guys will be another year older and more seasoned in '09, and maybe Bruce won't be ready until '09, but when youre talking about a core rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Belisle and Bailey, with an offensive core of EdE, Phillips, Hamilton, and Votto (all of which will be in the bigs for all of '08) you are absolutely a contender- IF they can somehow stabilize the pen, which will hopefully be boosted with the effectiveness of Bray, Coffey and McBeth. Include Dunn in the offensive core if he ends up staying. Lohse I trade this season almost no matter what. Griff I trade this year if he can bring good value in return, if not I keep him for next (his final) year.

    I agree with most of your moves, with some small exceptions. I'd value Bray higher than Coffey as an organizational cornerstone, as well as some other small disparaties, but overall I like your thinking.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-15-2007 at 04:21 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #5
    Firin Away Jr's Boy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    1,750

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    That's some great idea's for the future,question is where is the revenue going to come from if the fans keep showing up,only to see junk on the field.

  7. #6
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Crescent Springs KY
    Posts
    3,599

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by Stingray View Post
    The recent optioning of EE started me thinking once again about the Reds future. Iíve been a Reds fan all my life. During that time, Iíve gone through many long bleak periods (1940 till the mid 60ís for example), but, until the reserve clause was outlawed (thanks Curt Flood), there was always hope for the future. Now the Reds are involved in another long bleak period. Up until this year I havenít seen much hope for the Reds near term future.

    The Reds can not hope to win by signing top free agents(theyíre going to go to the wealthy teams). For the last 10 to 15 years the approach has been to patch together teams with declining, mid priced, veterans coupled with the few players weíve developed within our minor league system. The success of that approach has been startlingly underwhelming.

    This year our minor league system is the strongest Iíve seen in my 68+ years as a Reds fan. That, coupled with a young core at the ML level, give the Reds a window starting no later than 09 to field a strong contender. Itís sort of interesting that a good share of the credit(the minors) belongs to the much maligned Dan OíBrien. I made the following comments in a recent thread which outline my thoughts on building and sustaining a Reds winner:


    1. Heavy emphasis on player development Ė Worldwide(US, Latin America, Asia) Scouting, Trading for youth, Draft, etc
    2. Keep your players in the minors until theyíre fully ready(minimize the development required in the majors)
    3. Identify and sign to contract extensions(that last thru the first 2 or 3 years of free agency) key players early in their Arb years
    4. When a player has reached the peak of his cost/performance value trade him at the deadline for multiple AA prospects(Iíd want 3 very good young AA prospects for Dunn)



    My concern is that WK doesnít blow the current opportunity trying for another quick fix. BC should insure the Reds capitalize on this opportunity by:



    1. Recognize that all chance for this year is gone. There is NO quick fix that will allow this team to get back in the race. Donít give up any high ceiling prospects unless youíre getting a similar return (no aging veterans).
    2. Identify, keep, and nuture the young ML core(Arroyo, Harang, Belise?, Coffey, EE, Phillips, Hamilton)
    3. Determine Dunnís intent. If heíll sign a three year extension at a reasonable cost(around $10M/yr), do so. If not look for the most favorable time to trade him before his option runs out next year, Iíd want at least a BA top10 AA player plus a couple of high ceiling high A players.
    4. Same as #3 for Loshe, keep at a much lower salary than Dunn or trade for a BA top 50 AA player plus a good high A prospect.
    5. Use the rest of 07 to determine the value of the ML & minor league players whose age, performance, and experience suggest a thorough trail at the ML level(Coutlangus, Salmon, McBeth, Bray, Majewski, Medlock, Livingston, Saarlos?, Keppinger, etc ).
    6. Resist the temptation to bring up the true gems(Bailey, Bruce, Votto?) or young guys who could use more time in the minors(for example Dumatrait whoís coming back from injury) too early.
    7. Identify areas of future weakness(SS, C, Closer) within the system and look for ways to fill them(draft, trade, etc)
    8. Finally get a management team oriented to developing and playing younger players(I donít think that team is WK & JN). Although a mix of good veterans(Gonzo?) is still desirable.


    I donít consider myself an expert talent evaluator so the players Iíve show in parenthesis above are for illustrative purposes only.
    .

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Sarasota, Fl
    Posts
    229

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    In response to the above posts:

    Dfs – I basically agree with you on Dumatrait, although I’m more hopeful on his future than you. He’s not very big but he’d had very good #’s at AAA. If he continues to perform, he should be a call up after rosters expand.

    Kc61 – I have mixed emotions on WK. The things you mention in your 1st paragraph are strong positives(also the Phillips, Burton, and Hamilton signings) but his high cost spending/contract extensions of Cormier, Stanton, Weathers, Castro as well as THE TRADE and the EE option are all negative.

    Benihana – The title of my thread is a little misleading. Although I’m writing off this year, I think the Reds have a chance if everything breaks right next year. If Bailey and Votto have immediate impact and if guys like Salmon, McBeth, Dumatrait, and Kepplinger can provide an upgrade over the expensive chaff we have now 08 could be a good year. That’s why I used the phrase “window starting no later than 09” in my post. I also agree Bray could be a factor but I included him in paragraph 5 rather than as part of the core since he’s not currently pitching for the Reds.

    Jr’s Boy – I don’t think the approach I’ve outlined would result in a worse 07 record than we’re currently facing hence no reduced revenue. We might even do better. There are plenty of fans who’d rather pay to watch Bray, Salmon, McBeth, or Kepplinger make a mistake they might learn from leading to future contributions than watch Stanton or Castro fail with no offsetting future as compensation.
    Last edited by Stingray; 05-15-2007 at 08:58 PM.

  9. #8
    Firin Away Jr's Boy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    1,750

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    There are plenty of fans who’d rather pay to watch Bray, Salmon, McBeth, or Kepplinger make a mistake they might learn from leading to future contributions than watch Stanton or Castro fail with no offsetting future as compensation.


    Sorry friend but I don't spend my hard earned money going to a big league game to watch player development.

  10. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,918

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    I'm actually not ready to concede '07 yet...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Sarasota, Fl
    Posts
    229

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by Jr's Boy View Post
    There are plenty of fans whoíd rather pay to watch Bray, Salmon, McBeth, or Kepplinger make a mistake they might learn from leading to future contributions than watch Stanton or Castro fail with no offsetting future as compensation.


    Sorry friend but I don't spend my hard earned money going to a big league game to watch player development.
    You'd rather watch Stanton or Castro fail?

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Sarasota, Fl
    Posts
    229

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm actually not ready to concede '07 yet...

    I admire that and hope you're rewarded for your faith.

  13. #12
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,178

    Re: Have A Plan - Go For 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by Jr's Boy View Post
    There are plenty of fans whoíd rather pay to watch Bray, Salmon, McBeth, or Kepplinger make a mistake they might learn from leading to future contributions than watch Stanton or Castro fail with no offsetting future as compensation.


    Sorry friend but I don't spend my hard earned money going to a big league game to watch player development.
    True but would you rather have your team be more like the reds or the marlins. I think the edict the Castillini has reigned down has somewhat hurt the reds. They went out this offseason and spent to a point where they though they would be competitive. If they would have shelled out a little more money (10-20mil) they probably would have been more competitive. A move to sign Gagne instead of Stanton would have done wonders for this team. But I digress.

    I think the reds have to realize what they have right now. I would almost like for them to get an outside scout/consultant to give them a unbiased opinion of the state of the reds. Each year it seems as the reds bring in stop gaps instead of looking to their minors to produce. The reds currently have Stanton under a 2 year contract while a guy like Countlangus is outpitching him and is both younger and cheaper. Santos (who I was in favor of) is basically a retread who is having a good year when a guy like Salmon who could produce quite a bit in the future is sent down to AAA.

    Drafting and player development have to be key. They also cant hesitate to pull the triger on a move that will make the team better but will make the fans unhappy. The reds not only have to realize what a player's value to the team is but also the player's value to other franchises. When another team's value for a certain player is higher than the reds its time to move a player. They also have to avoid bad contracts. These have plagued the reds for years. Names like Casey, Graves, and LaRue were once fan favorites but were given contracts that seriously hindered the reds chances.

    They need to lock up their starts early. I was impressed when both Harang and Arroyo were signed to early extentions to lock them up for the foreseeable future. They need to shy away from signing players to big contracts in their early to mid 30's. The players just lose quite a bit of skill later in their career.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25