Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 8 of 8

Thread: Which Approach Works Best ?

  1. #1
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Which Approach Works Best ?

    From the book, "The Book on the Book". Bill Felber. Pgs 139-154.

    They wanted to study how GM's spent the payroll and the effects on winning baseball games.



    Code:
    All teams 1999-2004. 
    Asset Allocation				Avg Games 		Number of 	Number of 
    Focus 			Avg Winning Percentage 	From expct wins 	teams 		Playoff teams
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________
    
    Rotation-Pitching Combo 	.540		+ 7.2			18		7
    (Combined payroll of 5 starters exceeds 34.5%, combined payroll of all pitchers 
    exceeds 49% of payroll) 
    
    
    Balanced Teams 			.509		+.6			48		17
    (Payroll for each of the groups outlined above fits within one standard deviation
    of the average) 
    
    
    Pitching (not rotation) 	.508 		-.4			9		2
    (Combined payroll of all pichers exceeds 49% of payroll, but combined payroll
    of rotation starters does not exceed 34.5%) 
    
    
    Rotation only 			.501		-.8			11		5
    (Combined payroll of expected 5 starters exceeds 34.5% of payroll, but combined 
    payroll of all pitchers does not exceed 49%)  
    
    
    Borrowers 			.496		-1.2			44		9
    (Teams that are no about the ceilings listed above, but fall below 1 standard deviation
    from the average in one or more areas so they are not ballanced) 
    
    
    Middle defense 			.489		-2.4			23		5
    (Combined payroll of middle defenders exceeds 28.5% of team payroll)
    
    
    Heart of order 			.460		-2.8			26		2
    (Combined payroll of 3-4-5 hitters exceeds 39% of team payroll) 
    
    
    Single Star teams		.457 		-4.5 			19		1
    (Highest paid player exceeds 23% of team payroll)

    I'd say the reds have spent a lot of money building either a Single Star, Heart of Order or currently a Middle Defense style teams (although I drifted away from baseball for a while so I can't remember much about the 1999-2003 teams).

    Interestingly, those are the three least effective uses of money (at least historically).

    Seems to me this is saying that you either spend all your money on pitching (either starters, bullpen or both) or you ballance it out. Focus soley on offense or defense at your own risk.

    Thoughts? Comments? Agree? Dissagree?
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 05-15-2007 at 06:06 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member PickOff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    1,338

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    Can the single star be a pitcher?
    Thank goodness for baseball.

  4. #3
    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    east of WOY
    Posts
    5,043

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    It seems to support what we've known all along, that if you can only afford to spend in one area, pitching seems to be a good area to focus on.

  5. #4
    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    east of WOY
    Posts
    5,043

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    Quote Originally Posted by PickOff View Post
    Can the single star be a pitcher?
    It could, but what if everyone around him still stinks? Then you're left with the bad teams Soto was on.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Sarasota, Fl
    Posts
    229

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    To be meaningful you'd have to know how the payroll of the teams involved compared to the average team payroll in a given year. My guess is that payroll size probably has the stongest coorelation with wins.

  7. #6
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stingray View Post
    To be meaningful you'd have to know how the payroll of the teams involved compared to the average team payroll in a given year. My guess is that payroll size probably has the stongest coorelation with wins.
    For example, in the time period given, 18 teams fit the "rotation plus pitching" defintion with the allocation of their payroll. 7 made the playoffs. Teams in bold font are the ones that made the playoffs. This list is by year, so you'll see repeats.

    Arizona Dbacks
    Florda Marlins
    Oakland As
    Toronto
    Arizone
    Marlins
    Oakland
    Arizona Dbacks
    Colorado Rockies
    Minnesota Twins
    Arizona Dbacks
    Minnesota Twins
    St Louis Cardinnals

    Dbacks
    LA Dodgers
    Minnesota Twins
    Atlanta Braves
    Texas Rangers
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    796

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    currently a Middle Defense style teams
    Huh??

    Remember, this is a Middle Defense that features Hamilton ($380k), Phillips ($407k), Ross ($1.6M), and Gonzalez ($3.5M). Those salaries comprise a small subset of the $69M payroll. I'm not sure what methodology and data you (or the book) are using, but I used the salaries from ESPN.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=cin

    My conclusion is that the 2007 Reds are pretty close to being a starter-pitching combo (34% and 46% respectively), but they are probably "Borrowers", which is what most teams probably are. They would tend to lean more toward the pitching side of the equation. . . Although I can't definitively say, because I haven't read the book.

    2007 Reds Salary Breakdown (by D-Man's count):
    Heart of Order: 28%
    Starting Pitching: 34%
    Relievers: 13%
    Middle Infielders: 10%

  9. #8
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Which Approach Works Best ?

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Man View Post
    Huh??

    Remember, this is a Middle Defense that features Hamilton ($380k), Phillips ($407k), Ross ($1.6M), and Gonzalez ($3.5M). Those salaries comprise a small subset of the $69M payroll. I'm not sure what methodology and data you (or the book) are using, but I used the salaries from ESPN.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=cin

    My conclusion is that the 2007 Reds are pretty close to being a starter-pitching combo (34% and 46% respectively), but they are probably "Borrowers", which is what most teams probably are. They would tend to lean more toward the pitching side of the equation. . . Although I can't definitively say, because I haven't read the book.

    2007 Reds Salary Breakdown (by D-Man's count):
    Heart of Order: 28%
    Starting Pitching: 34%
    Relievers: 13%
    Middle Infielders: 10%
    You are exactly right . In haste I threw out the 'middle infielders bit thinking about Waynes push to improve D in that area, not the allocation of payroll.

    Thanks for looking up the payroll numbers. That was my next task for tonight to continue to flesh this topic out.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25