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Thread: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

  1. #31
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    I keep reading where AD is far undervalued in this city. And then I turn around and read that no other team is going to give up equal value in return.
    Don't these other clubs realize what a value player AD is? Why wouldn't they give up equal value to get such a cornerstone? Kinda makes me wonder which one is it?
    I think that says it all.

    The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.
    Who's on first?

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  3. #32
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    I think that says it all.

    The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.
    And you too right?

    I mean I think that you're pretty clueless too.

  4. #33
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    I think that says it all.

    The fans on this board who think Dunn has alot of value are the ones who are clueless.
    Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

    Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
    2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
    2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
    2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
    2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
    2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
    Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2

  5. #34
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

    Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
    2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
    2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
    2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
    2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
    2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
    Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2
    A quick point of opinionated contention.... IMHO, BP has real issues with the defensive side of things.... anything beyond their valuation of bats is pretty suspect (WARP, MORP etc) because they are impacted by the way they rate defense.

    I think the truth about Dunn's worth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two polarized camps... He's probably worth more to the Reds than to a lot of other teams because the Reds only have to pay his salary (while other teams would also have to give up talent to the reds for that privilege). But I think there are teams that might do something unexpected if they feel Dunn is the piece that can put them over the top. Basically, IMHO, if he's hitting BP's VORP projections, his trade value peaks as July approaches and then falls again as the off season comes (when the most options for teams are available). Obviously his worth depends upon how contending teams are set for DH and LF. That means the number of teams that might seriously deal for him will be a small minority even at his peak value. At league minimum, nearly every team would consider him. At $13M (ala '08), he's not nearly as attractive. That is not a slam on Dunn in anyway. It's the business side of baseball.

    He's a player with an asterisk (unique skillset). His defense and contract situation mitigate his trade value. He's to the point in his career where the money he'll make means he's more of a risk since his value is essentially all derived from his bat and his rate will be at the market value. He's probably best suited to DH but that's a position with the greatest talent pool to select from. The talent pool for left field is smaller but is still very large as well. Basically, teams weigh what they'll have to pay him + what they'd have to give up to acquire him in talent and they can see ways in which they can achieve a reasonably similar affect on their RA/RA equation for cheaper and less risk. The Reds equation is much simpler-they only have to weigh the risk of paying Dunn versus the risk of paying someone new they bring in to replace Dunn. I think the Reds pick up Dunn's '08 option.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):

    Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
    2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
    2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
    2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
    2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
    2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
    Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2
    Thats fine and dandy but we will see what Dunn gets in real life and real dollars. I have a feeling it wont be anything close to what Baseball Prospecuts says.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  7. #36
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    I actually think Dunn's defense has been slightly improved. He doesn't look graceful but he does get the job done. Right now I do not see the reds trading Dunn. They really have no one immediatly there to replace him. Also if Dunn goes this offense is going to take a huge hit. You can argue all you want about strikeouts but fact of the matter is you will be trading away probably your most productive player in terms of rbi's and runs scored. Hamilton has shown signes of being a run producer but still needs time. Jr is having a good season but wont be around cincinnati for too much longer. Phillips and EE are too streaky to rely on them solely for run production. People say you win with pitching and defense but you also need to score runs. You wont win many games when you score 1-2 runs even if you have the best pitching staff and best defense in baseball. Trading Dunn with no one waiting in the wings to replace him doesn't make much sense to me.

    If I were the reds management I would look at extending him. I would probably buy out his option next year and try and sign him for two more years around $13-$14 million and throw a option for the 3rd year. This would not only lock him up for a couple of years but it also would increase his trade value. But according to some on this board, I think dunn have value so render this statement clueless.

  8. #37
    Schnickelfritz BurgervilleBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    Good work to Welsh for getting this 7 error mistake everywhere, won't be long before the radio guys are talking about "7 error" Dunn
    Not unlike Saturday night when Thom cited one of the Tribe players having 18 doubles this season. Of course, Dad corrected him on-air. It's actually 8 doubles.
    That Joey Votto is some kind of Man Candy!

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  9. #38
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    Thats fine and dandy but we will see what Dunn gets in real life and real dollars. I have a feeling it wont be anything close to what Baseball Prospecuts says.
    So you don't think Dunn could come close to a 5 year $66 million dollar deal? I think he could.

  10. #39
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    I have seen all I need to of Dunn. He has to go! I have supported Dunn up until now.
    80% of the earth is covered by water. The other 20% is covered by Eric Davis.

  11. #40
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    I see all this stats and Dunn's projected salary...for me its pretty simple...compare him to other players.

    I would expect a contract figure between the amount Carlos Lee and A. Soriano got, trending towards Lee's figure if I had to pick one...

  12. #41
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I see all this stats and Dunn's projected salary...for me its pretty simple...compare him to other players.

    I would expect a contract figure between the amount Carlos Lee and A. Soriano got, trending towards Lee's figure if I had to pick one...
    If Dunn gets that kind of money I hope and pray that its from another team because that contract would doom the Reds to mediocrity for the length of the deal.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  13. #42
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    While Dunn obviously has some value, I want him gone badly. I have trouble watching someone who keeps making the exact same mistake over and over.
    80% of the earth is covered by water. The other 20% is covered by Eric Davis.

  14. #43
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by 44Magnum View Post
    While Dunn obviously has some value, I want him gone badly. I have trouble watching someone who keeps making the exact same mistake over and over.
    That's the story of the Reds season thus far. Dunn, and everyone else, making the same mistakes, over, and over, and over. If you are a vet, there's no accountability.

  15. #44
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    I used to hear the same thing about Craig Biggio. If a pitcher started a slider low and away that broke out of the strike zone Biggio would swing at it most of the time. Why didn't he learn to lay off that pitch people would ask? It is true that he would swing and miss that pitch a lot. The flip side was if that slider hung the least little bit he would rope it into the corner for a double or deposit it into the Crawford Boxes. If you think about it maybe there is a method to the madness.

  16. #45
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn Is More Likely The Fall Guy

    Quote Originally Posted by 44Magnum View Post
    I have seen all I need to of Dunn. He has to go! I have supported Dunn up until now.
    Yeah, his .905 OPS (second only to Griffey) is killing this team...


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