Is there going to be an influx of talent between now and July 4th?
I like this Edskin, I like it alot!
He must have one of these -
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Originally Posted by Cyclone792
The Reds next 17 games really isn't that difficult of a schedule at all, and if they're going to make any move to climb back up in the standings it may very well have to come in the next 17 games.
4 vs. Washington (16-28)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (19-24)
3 @ Houston (21-22)
3 @ St. Louis (16-25)
3 @ Colorado (18-26)
If they can put up a 12-5 record over the next 17 games, they can give themselves a chance.
Of course, I just have a feeling that the interleague schedule may pose some big problems that could quickly seal the season (if it isn't already sealed), especially with three more games against the Indians, three games against the Angels, and three games against the A's.
Your right! If we can go 12-5 over these games it helps us tremendously, especially with 10 of those games within our division, but 8-9 basically will kill any chances of reality. We must start turning it around now.
Phew... I figured out how to post here again. I was worried for a second.
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Edskin, if you are right about this then I will give 5,000 imaginary rep points.
Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!
Wanna know why I am so confident?
Well, he made me promise not to tell, but I do have a secret weapon.
His name is Vinny.
My wife got up early to work out this morning, and he paid me a visit. I rolled over, saw this image, and heard a voice utter, "43 and 41 by the 4th." That's all I heard. But that's all I needed.
I will keep you updated if he says anything else....
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I think Edskin is right about this. Two biggest problems have been the bullpen and the offense (especially against lefties).
Well, the beauty of the theory of paying a slew of guys 2 million is that it allows you to cull the herd. Get rid of the non-performers and keep the performers. And you're seeing the results recently. And we now have guys like McBeth ready, and Majewski and Bray on the way back.
And the offense against lefties will be much better because Griffey is coming around, Encarnacion will be back, even Ross is much better in May then April.
So, I see a rebound coming too
The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.
Baseball Prospectus has an interesting standings tool to help out with this.
They have what they term "first-order" wins, "second-order" wins, and "third-order" wins. First-order wins is simply pythag won/loss record, which you've probably seen referenced a few times on RZ. Second-order wins makes an adjustment and uses equivalent runs scored/allowed.
Third-order wins is the last adjustment that can help answer your question. They take the above second-order wins and make one final adjustment for strength of schedule. Hopefully you're still following along and not yet confused.
Anyhow, here are those same next five opponents based on "third-order" won/loss record ...
4 vs. Washington (17-27)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (16-27)
3 @ Houston (19-24)
3 @ St. Louis (16-25)
3 @ Colorado (18-26)
FWIW, the Reds record based on "third-order" wins should be around 22-22 instead of 17-27. The Reds, no thanks in small part to that wonderful bullpen, have had some awful luck already this season.
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