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Thread: Bruce headed for AA

  1. #31
    Member New Fever's Avatar
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    They probably are using the same approach they used with Bailey last season. Let him play in the FSL about half of the year and AA about half of the year, and if he dominates when promoted, he will start next year in AAA. He will only be 21 next year and I would call that the fast track.

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  3. #32
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    They probably are using the same approach they used with Bailey last season. Let him play in the FSL about half of the year and AA about half of the year, and if he dominates when promoted, he will start next year in AAA. He will only be 21 next year and I would call that the fast track.
    Fast track would have been him starting the season in AA and possibly ending up in AAA by the end of the year. I just think that this kid needs to be pushed hard because of his overwhelming talent. The better pitching he faces the better in the end he will become.

  4. #33
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    So you are saying that you would have him up in the big leagues to begin next year? If not then we have him at the same level next year, AAA.

  5. #34
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    ummmm. Bruce has a wonderful swing.

    It's possible that he could play center. I would hate say that he couldn't, but the reds have a ton of guys who don't project to hit anything like bruce, but need to stay in center in order to have any shot at a career (Szymanski, Stubbs, Dickerson) None of those guys are going to get to the majors unless they are centerfielders. Bruce is certainly going to hit well enough to handle a corner.

    Austin Kearns projected about as well as Bruce does. He was a year older, but he hit with more power and got on base a lot more. I'm as excited about Bruce as anybody, just remember there are no sure things.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  6. #35
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Shouldn't this thead's title be altered until he is actually promoted?

  7. #36
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Austin Kearns projected about as well as Bruce does. He was a year older, but he hit with more power and got on base a lot more. I'm as excited about Bruce as anybody, just remember there are no sure things.
    Not saying Bruce is a sure thing, but if he finishes the year with numbers even close to this, a 20 year old Bruce is a noticeably better prospect than a 20 year old Kearns. Here's Kearns numbers as a 20 year old in Low A Dayton compared to Bruce's current numbers as a 20 year old in the MUCH tougher high A....

    Kearns: 590 PA 484AB .306/.415/.558 .252isoP .446XBP 1.44(XBH-HR)/HR 15.2BB% 15.7K%

    Bruce: 202PA 180AB .344/.401/.633 .289isoP .468XBP 2.22(XBH-HR)/HR 9.4BB% 22.3K%

    I wouldn't say Kearns got on base a lot more. Granted, he's a more patient hitter, but Bruce is a level higher and not far off Kearns' OBP. And as far as power goes, Bruce is well past Kearns in that category. He's playing in one of the toughest hitter's league's around and isoP'ing "verb?" close to .300. I'll take Bruce.

  8. #37
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Shouldn't this thead's title be altered until he is actually promoted?
    Everyone was wondering if he was going to get promoted, well the answer was yes unless you wanna hear it from Castellini

  9. #38
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Everyone was wondering if he was going to get promoted, well the answer was yes unless you wanna hear it from Castellini

    Well the title implies that he has been moved up which would be news. Everyone knows he will move up at some point but it could just as well be said he is headed to AAA or to the Reds. My point is just that the way it is phrase causes confusion or at least did for me.

  10. #39
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He pretty much was running wild on the MWL until he got hurt that last month of the season. He was hitting .313/.380/.565 ish as a 19 year old which was pretty much incredible.

    Not sure what those numbers are referring to unless you're counting only a portion of the season. His end of season numbers were these in the MWL: .291/.355/.516. That's not "running wild" through a league. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .270/.331/.500. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .257/.358/.457.

    Those are OPS' of .815/.831/.871. Those are good, but not even close to great. He could also spend some more time learning defense at that level where players are hitting it harder and farther. He can learn to run bases better. Learn to steal against a better quality pitcher. There are a ton of things he can spend another month working on at the High-A level.

    Your numbers had him at a .945 OPS vs what he finished at, which was .871. There's a huge difference there. (He finished 5th in OPS in the MWL in 2006)

    He didn't have enough at-bats to qualify for the 2005 Gulf Coast League stats, but his .831 OPS would have placed him 8th.

    He had a very good April this year at Sarasota, but he's having a phenomenal May (and last week of April). And, as great as he's doing (2nd in the League in OPS), where he's doing his worst, batting-wise, is with RISP, where his OPS is .727.

    also:

    09/22/2006 Baseball America Low Class A All-Star
    09/22/2006 Baseball America Minor League All-Star
    08/24/2006 MID Post-Season All-Star
    06/20/2006 MID Mid-Season All-Star
    06/20/2006 MID All-Star Game Top Star
    06/11/2006 MID Player of the Week
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 05-24-2007 at 08:15 PM.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  11. #40
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Not sure what those numbers are referring to unless you're counting only a portion of the season. His end of season numbers were these in the MWL: .291/.355/.516. That's not "running wild" through a league. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .270/.331/.500. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .257/.358/.457.

    Those are OPS' of .815/.831/.871. Those are good, but not even close to great. He could also spend some more time learning defense at that level where players are hitting it harder and farther. He can learn to run bases better. Learn to steal against a better quality pitcher. There are a ton of things he can spend another month working on at the High-A level.

    Your numbers had him at a .945 OPS vs what he finished at, which was .871. There's a huge difference there. (He finished 5th in OPS in the MWL in 2006)
    Those numbers that Doug posted were Bruce's numbers before the last month of the season, in which he played through a shoulder injury. I think he hit under .200 over the last month last season.

  12. #41
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    I agree that Bruce is a better prospect but don't forget Kearns was co-player of the year with some guy named Pujols. Kearns was an elite prospect.

  13. #42
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Not sure what those numbers are referring to unless you're counting only a portion of the season. His end of season numbers were these in the MWL: .291/.355/.516. That's not "running wild" through a league. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .270/.331/.500. Nor are these numbers from the league before that: .257/.358/.457.
    You need to note that the last two sets of numbers you are referring to came in 2005 with the 'take the first pitch' rule. When you are 18 years old and have a rule like that, yeah, toss those numbers out the window. The MWL numbers I posted are in fact his numbers prior to his shoulder injury that led to him hitting under .200 the final month of the season and damaging the great season he had going on.

    Those are OPS' of .815/.831/.871. Those are good, but not even close to great. He could also spend some more time learning defense at that level where players are hitting it harder and farther. He can learn to run bases better. Learn to steal against a better quality pitcher. There are a ton of things he can spend another month working on at the High-A level.
    Forgetting the first two numbers, yes an .871 OPS as a 19 year old in the MWL is fairly great. Not many stars put up a line close to that at the same age in the same league. From 2002-2005 the average statline of a 19 year old in the MWL was a .725 OPS, the fact that Bruce, even with his struggles through an entire month was about .150 points ahead of that says how impressive that season was for him. If you were to take away the first baseman from that statline the combined OPS drops to .705, and Jay looks even better.

    Your numbers had him at a .945 OPS vs what he finished at, which was .871. There's a huge difference there. (He finished 5th in OPS in the MWL in 2006)
    Finishing 5th in the league in OPS as a 19 year old when you fell off the face of the earth the last month of the season only constitutes a 'good' season and not a great one? I dont see your logic on this one.


    He had a very good April this year at Sarasota, but he's having a phenomenal May (and last week of April). And, as great as he's doing (2nd in the League in OPS), where he's doing his worst, batting-wise, is with RISP, where his OPS is .727.
    With runners on he has an OPS of 1.096 with a .400/.452/.644 line in 90 at bats.
    If he hits a HR in his next at bat with RISP his OPS would go up 75 points. When 1 at bats can do that to your statline, there is certainly too small of a sample to take that number seriously.

  14. #43
    Member SandyD's Avatar
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think they want Sarasota to clinch a first half title. They won't say so, but I think the Reds like to brag about the winning of minor league teams. They probably will clinch around June 10 or so, may bet is Bruce moves up then.
    I think that's a good point. And does the FSL have an all-star break? I think they do, and it's in June. Not long after the draft. And they'll be moving a lot of players around then anyway. So, that might be their reasoning to wait.

  15. #44
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Well the title implies that he has been moved up which would be news. Everyone knows he will move up at some point but it could just as well be said he is headed to AAA or to the Reds. My point is just that the way it is phrase causes confusion or at least did for me.
    I just reported what Reynolds said just like every poster here would do for a friend.

  16. #45
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    Re: Bruce headed for AA

    With runners on he has an OPS of 1.096 with a .400/.452/.644 line in 90 at bats.
    If he hits a HR in his next at bat with RISP his OPS would go up 75 points. When 1 at bats can do that to your statline, there is certainly too small of a sample to take that number seriously.
    I wanna buy a kitten named RISP and blow it up. Everyone knows stats are meaningless after the first week of the season, so why is it okay to form opinions based on RISP stats?


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