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Thread: Kevin Ahrens

  1. #1
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    Kevin Ahrens

    Rumor out there is that the Red's want Kevin Ahrens at the number 15 spot. Keith Law said that he considers him a sandwich pick, not a first round pick. Can anyone get me a scouting report. Is he worth a 15 or is that a mistake?

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    On the BA Top 200 draft prospect list they said that he could likely be around for the sandwich round as well where the Reds pick 34th. They also say that this is incredibly deep draft and after around 8 or 9 players, there are so many other good players bunch together. So somebody that you might consider at 12 or 15 could be around at pick 45 or 50.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    In his scouting report they say that he has the best bat in Texas for high schoolers but he is a poor runner and plays shortstop now and he will have to move to 3rd base.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Ahrens would be a fairly significant reach. I don't mind that per se, but an organization had better be 100% positive about a kid when it does that.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Hitting Ability: New to switch-hitting, Ahrens is better from the right side but has already shown great improvements on the left side. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, especially for a high school hitter.
    Power: Ahrens has incredibly quick hands from both sides and projects to hit for some power both left-handed and right-handed.
    Running Speed: He's a tick below average.
    Arm Strength: He's got plus arm strength from both infield positions.
    Arm Accuracy: Ahrens' throws are true and on the money.
    Fielding: Ahrens has good hands in the field and catches everything in his vicinity.
    Range: This is what may force a move to third in the future. He doesn't have tremendous range and he could grow into a pretty physical third baseman.
    Baseball Instinct: Ahrens has shown good instincts with his approach at the plate and his ability to take to switch-hitting, which he just started doing about a year ago.
    Physical Description: Ahrens has a strong and athletic body that compares favorably with Chipper Jones when he was coming out of high school, though Jones was a little more athletic and a better runner.
    Strengths: Hitting approach from both sides of the plate.
    Weaknesses: Left-handed hitting. His swing from the left side gets loopy at times, but he compensates with quick hands. He should improve as he has more time hitting left-handed.
    Summary: Add another fine prep third baseman to the list. There's a lot of upside in Ahrens' offense and while he'll likely end up at third base, he could possibly start as a shortstop because of his hands and arm and play there until he proves he can't stay at the position.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Also: javascript:mp.play({w:'http://mfile.akamai.com/10869/wmv/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2007/open/draft/prospects/ahrens_kevin_400.wmv',type:'v_free'})

    Copy and paste that link into your browser for a scouting video on him.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Ahrens would be a fairly significant reach. I don't mind that per se, but an organization had better be 100% positive about a kid when it does that.
    I dunno. Not that I know anything, but the lists compiled by BA and others don't impress me as especially authoritative in the distinctions they make, say, in any sequence of 10-20 players outside of the top, top group. So, if they've got Ahrens at 32 and Dominguez at 15, to me that isn't all that significant. Plus, I have the feeling Ahrens is gaining steam.

    I'm really pleased that we can see video of these guys now (at minorleaguebaseball.com). I've looked at Ahrens a few times and I have been more impressed each time with his switch-hitting potential. Very quick, strong hands from both sides -- and he's only been switch hitting for a year. I think this could be a kid with a special bat. Not much by way of speed and it sounds like he'll have to eventually move off SS, but I like that he's at least athletic enough to start there. He's grown on me.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    If we draft this kid, Im willing to bet we're gonna hear about the hotshot pitcher Krivsky shouldve drafted.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    So, if they've got Ahrens at 32 and Dominguez at 15, to me that isn't all that significant.
    Dominguez's swing looks really wierd to me. I couldn't figure out what it was... is "lungy" a good way to put it?

    I like Ahrens a lot. If a guy like Wieters slips or something, I wanna see Castellini finally live up to his rep and fork it out, but if Ahrens stock keeps rising and there isn't much top end talent left, I wouldn't mind seeing us take a solid easy sign guy in the first. You figure we've got a lot of guys to sign this year. Drafting Ahrens right off the bat might open up a few Betances like risks with our sandwich picks.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I dunno. Not that I know anything, but the lists compiled by BA and others don't impress me as especially authoritative in the distinctions they make, say, in any sequence of 10-20 players outside of the top, top group. So, if they've got Ahrens at 32 and Dominguez at 15, to me that isn't all that significant. Plus, I have the feeling Ahrens is gaining steam.

    I'm really pleased that we can see video of these guys now (at minorleaguebaseball.com). I've looked at Ahrens a few times and I have been more impressed each time with his switch-hitting potential. Very quick, strong hands from both sides -- and he's only been switch hitting for a year. I think this could be a kid with a special bat. Not much by way of speed and it sounds like he'll have to eventually move off SS, but I like that he's at least athletic enough to start there. He's grown on me.
    My take is they all look good on video. As for Ahrens, far as I know, no one's got him rated in the top 30. Ideally the Reds could pluck a top 10 guy who's dropped a bit rather than reach back for a sleeper. Though, like I said, I don't mind a reach as long as the organization does it with absolute certitude. Of course that certitude better prove correct and bad luck on injuries, for me, doesn't absolve a miss in that situation (e.g. Chris Gruler).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    IMHO, if Matt Weiters falls because of Scott Boras, you take him, period, no questions asked. Then if Ahrens is there with one of our sandwich picks, then you take him.

    I don't care about drafting pitching out of necessity, whether it be high school, college, or whatever. You take the best available player.

    This farm system needs a jump start, and reaching on Ahrens when we can possibly get him in the sandwich round would be a mistake.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Ahrens' is ranked 28th on BA top 200, so yeah he would be a bit of a reach at 15. But they also say he was one of two guys rising up draft boards in Jim Callis recent chat.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    My take is they all look good on video.
    Given the little that we see, it's likely we can't make solid judgments based on video. However, I definitely form preferences based on the videos, and occasionally I feel like there is a rationale for these preferences -- especially when it comes to pitchers' deliveries. (For example, I like Brackman's and Aumont's deliveries quite a bit better than Beavan's, if we're talking giant righthanders ranked in the top 20). Ahren's swing just look quick to me, especially from the right side, and I put a premium on his being able to take up switch hitting successfully.

    Again, I don't put a lot of stock in a difference of 20 places in a BA list. These kids are developing rapidly, and they came into the season ranked on information from a year ago, which may have been based on several reports or relatively few. Within a pretty broad stratum, I guess I'd give more credence to whether a prospect is rising or falling.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Given the little that we see, it's likely we can't make solid judgments based on video. However, I definitely form preferences based on the videos, and occasionally I feel like there is a rationale for these preferences -- especially when it comes to pitchers' deliveries. (For example, I like Brackman's and Aumont's deliveries quite a bit better than Beavan's, if we're talking giant righthanders ranked in the top 20). Ahren's swing just look quick to me, especially from the right side, and I put a premium on his being able to take up switch hitting successfully.

    Again, I don't put a lot of stock in a difference of 20 places in a BA list. These kids are developing rapidly, and they came into the season ranked on information from a year ago, which may have been based on several reports or relatively few. Within a pretty broad stratum, I guess I'd give more credence to whether a prospect is rising or falling.
    I agree with you mostly. There's nothing wrong with grabbing a guy above where his perceived market value lies. My only addendum is you better be right. You're donning a bullseye in that situation and you need to understand the downside of donning a bullseye. I actually think helps synthesize the decision. You don't want to reach on a kid you kind of like. You want to reach on a kid you adore, a kid you feel you've got to have, a kid whose path to the majors seems assured from your current vantage point.

    If that's how the Reds feel about Ahrens, then pick him. If he's a "good enough" pick designed to save some money to sprinkle around some cash to the extra compensation picks, then I'd consider it an awful decision and that the club would be deserving of every ounce of derision heaped upon it if Ahrens struggles.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: Kevin Ahrens

    If he's a "good enough" pick designed to save some money to sprinkle around some cash to the extra compensation picks, then I'd consider it an awful decision
    I agree with this. We'll have to see if they run away from Boras clients, draft a college senior or two very high, etc.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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