My Top 30 Reds Prospects

[camisadelgolf]

I don't think I'd say my list is shocking, but I think there are a couple mild surprises on there. What does everyone think? Who am I missing?

30 Misael DeJesus RP
39 Carson Kainer LF
28 Carlos Guevara RP
27 Travis Webb SP
26 Dan Dorn LF
25 Ramon Geronimo RP
24 Justin Turner SP
23 Jordan Smith SP
22 Carlos Fisher SP
21 Rafael Gonzalez SP
20 Thomas Pauly SP
19 Richie Gardner SP
18 Rick Asadoorian RP
17 Cody Strait CF
16 Josh Roenicke RP
15 Sam Lecure SP
14 Ty Pelland RP
13 Calvin Medlock RP
12 Phil Dumatrait SP
11 Daryl Thompson SP
10 Brad Salmon RP
9 Marcus McBeth RP
8 Travis Wood SP
7 Johnny Cueto SP
6 Drew Stubbs CF
5 Chris Valaika 2B
4 Sean Watson SP
3 Joey Votto 1B
2 Jay Bruce RF
1 Homer Bailey SP

[mth123]

Wish I had more time. Fisher should be higher. You are missing Marcos Mateo. He looks like the best of the bunch at Dayton IMO. As a reliever, I think Pelland will shoot up the standings. What is good is that I don't see anyone who should obviously be bumped off the list. Probably Kainer for now until he has played some more.

I'd move Stubbs down out of the top 10.

[dougdirt]

Juan Francisco seems to be a nice omission.

Lecure and Wood are both to low on the pitching side.

Carlos Fisher is WAY to low.

Danny Dorn and Justin Turner are also a little low.

[Benihana]

I agree with your top 8 except I think Watson is too high. I agree with Doug that Fisher is way too low (behind Pauly???) and while I like Watson, he's not doing anything that Cueto hasn't already done. And Francisco has to be on there. I don't do Top 30's, because I think once you get past 15 its almost irrelevant (its just a wash), so here is my Top 15:

FIRST TIER (allstar potential)
1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto

SECOND TIER (should be solid major league starters)
4. Chris Valaika
5. Johnny Cueto
6. Sean Watson
7. Travis Wood
8. Drew Stubbs

THIRD TIER (should contribute at the major league level)
9. Daryl Thompson
10. Carlos Fisher
11. Phil Dumatrait
12. Marcus McBeth
13. Justin Turner
14. Juan Francisco
15. Calvin Medlock

HONORABLE MENTION: Sam LeCure, Rafael Gonzlez, Ty Pelland, Richie Gardner
(I didn't count Salmon as he's currently on the big league roster)

[Triples]

I would think you have to have Drew Anderson in there somewhere. He is very quietly going about his business in Chatt and putting up some decent #s. he went through a 2fer two weeks slump in late April (while playing with a pulled muscle in his back) or his numbers would be easily rivaling all the league leaders.

While batting leadoff in all but 3 or 4 games, he's currently leading the Lookouts in BA, OPS, TB, 3b, H, and Runs Scored. He'd 2nd on the team in RBIs, and 3rd in doubles and HRs. In the Southern league, he's tied for 1st in triples, 6th in doubles, 8th in TB and in the top 15 in OPS. And, he was leading the league for second basemen in defensivly at .987 until recently (may still be I just cant find updated defensive stats on the internet). the only negative stat is see is his Ks are a bit too high.

[Superdude]

Here's my top 20...

1) Jay Bruce- Gotta do it at this point. Sorry Homer.

2) Homer Bailey- His last start was really his first legitimately dominant outing as a AAA pitcher. Hopefully he can build on that and go on a second half tear again.

3) Joey Votto- Is seriously ripping it up right now, and I'm getting pretty tired of watching a 1st base tandem of Hatteberg/Conine.

4) Travis Wood- Dominating comeback start after being out a few weeks. Pitched as more of a "finesse" guy last year, but was once considered a power lefty. If he gets some of that heat back this year to go along with the single best changeup on earth, he's got loads of upside.

5) Sean Watson- Has outperformed anyone's expectations. His future is definitely looking like a starter...and a good one.

6) Drew Stubbs- Hasn't really lost stock, but isn't gaining it either. His tools are nifty as crap, but at some point, he'll have to start scaring pitchers with something other than his chiseled abs.

7) Chris Valaika- Even after a slump is still hitting .329. Maybe not be a star, but he's looking like an above average bat up the middle.

8) Johnny Cueto- He's not doing that bad, but he's not exactly lighting the world on fire either. Not sure what's wrong considering he ended last season tying the FSL in knots. Hopefully he can get it going soon.

9) Carlos Fisher- One of the biggest jumps in my mind. Was a solid sinkerballer in Dayton last year, but is now averaging over a K per inning as high as AA. What appeared like a fringy pen guy last year is now looking more and more like a developing mid rotation starter.

10 ) Sam Lecure- He had some control issues before he went down with injury, but that should iron itself out considering his past performance. The key for him is that his average stuff is still missing bats even after taking the step into the upper minors. He and Fisher may not get flowers and chocolate from Baseball America, but there development will be key for this org. Not having to pay a Jeff Suppan 200 million dollars to hold down a #4 starter spot is really important to a low to mid budget team.

11) Juan Francisco- I'm cautiously excited about Francisco. He has flaws: strikes out a tad much and basically swings at anything that's not headed directly at his face, but his power is serious. He's most likely going to hit at least 20 homers this year. His OBP will probably always be a liability, but if he keeps improving, he's got post clean-up slugger potential.

12) Daryl Thompson- Having a solid bounce back year. Not sure what kind of stuff he still has, but he's gotten results.

13) Marcus McBeth- We seriously need somebody towards the back end of the bullpen. McBeth represents what might be the best option in the near future.

14) Tyler Pelland- Other than one bad outing, Pelland has been REALLY good since going to the pen. I've got a good feeling about him.

15) Calvin Medlock- Should be in our bullpen right now. I'm not sure what we're looking for him to prove at this point.

16) Josh Ravin- Not sure what the plan is with him, but his power repertoire should make a splash eventually.

17) Daniel Dorn- His numbers are a bit sheepish right now, but he's been tearing it up lately and was the best of the bunch in Billings last year. I'm hoping he can become Chris Denorfia with the extra pop to hold down a starting gig.

18) Paul Janish- He's always close, but he's yet to prove to me that he can't be a starting major league shortstop. He's lost some pop at AA, so unless the power comes back, he'll have to keep getting on base for his offensive numbers to be acceptable.

19) Jordan Smith- A power pitcher with a potentially good curveball. Could be interesting if his secondary stuff continues to develop.

20) Drew Anderson-Solid start this year. The cieling is questionable.


Thanks to a few breakouts, we've finally added some depth behind our top 3-4. This draft is gonna be huge too.

[Benihana]

While they are both uber-prospects, the reason I believe Homer still has to rank ahead of Bruce is because he is in AAA, while Bruce is still (although unjustly) in high A. While Homer is a year older, he has shown dominance at two levels above Bruce. I think some people around here are starting to take Homer for granted, in my mind simply because he's been talked about for so long. Remember people, he is still a 21 year old pitcher who has dominated every level of the minors through AAA. In my mind, he has to be #1. Bruce is #1A.

[bucksfan2]

Some observations that I have. Do the reds have the best two prospects in all of baseball? Why are Valakia and Bruce still in Low A and High A respectively? It seems to me that both are destroying competition and need to be challenged more. It seems like the team has more depth now that they have had in the past.

[mth123]

Why are Valakia and Bruce still in Low A and High A respectively? It seems to me that both are destroying competition and need to be challenged more.

I've been wondering this as well. The best theory I can come up with is that they are waiting for the fire sale to make room. When Major Leaguers go, guys get promoted and the ripple effect reaches down to guys like Bruce and Valaika as room opens above them. Could be all wrong, but it is possible.

[Aronchis]

The Reds system is top heavy. Outside Bailey,Fisher,Lecure and Wood, the Reds really don't have any sure bet starters. Even the low A guys may not end up starting, matter of fact Cueto,Watson,Gonzo,Webb and Smith all have doubts whether they will end up as starters though hopefully a couple of them do develope that way. Matter of fact, the lack of bullpen power arms concerned Krivsky so much, he has moved Medlock and Pelland to the pen and drafted a bunch of pitchers who probably have bullpen futures last year.

The bats could use some more raw talent. You have of course Votto/Bruce, the intial flux of college guys from last years draft, but finding some higher upside HS bats high in the draft wouldn't be a bad idea either.

With that out of the way for now, he must turn his attention to building depth(starter and raw bats) with all those extra picks he has.

[HokieRed]

Adam Rosales seems to me the clearest omission on the top 30 list.

[Kc61]

I'm willing to keep Cueto in the top ten. He's having a tough time this year in a league he handled well last year. Based on last year, let's give him time.

But Drew Stubbs. Hitting .266 in low A ball. After a bad offensive year at Billings. 22 year old college star. I'm patient and I like the depth of the last draft, but so far this pick looks questionable and I don't think he is the number 6 prospect. Outfielders with tools have to be able to hit or they turn into late inning defensive specialists.

Fisher is a top ten pick now that he is doing well at Chatanooga. Need those ground ball guys. And Gonzalez at Dayton is only 21, pitching great, and reputedly has excellent stuff. I know he didn't do that well as a younger pitcher, but I put him much higher than 21.

I think Lecure is appropriately placed at 15. I thought we ranked him a bit optimistically in the off-season voting for top prospects, although he still seems like a future major leaguer in some role.

And I still like Dorn and think he should be in the top 20 or so. Skipped a level this year, started slowly, but is picking it up. Hopefully will finish strong this year and be able to reach AA next year, either out of spring training or early in the season.

The Reds really do have a bunch of good arms in the minors now. Hopefully more will be drafted this year. Position players are obviously weaker crop.

[Benihana]

The Reds system is top heavy. Outside Bailey,Fisher,Lecure and Wood, the Reds really don't have any sure bet starters. Even the low A guys may not end up starting, matter of fact Cueto,Watson,Gonzo,Webb and Smith all have doubts whether they will end up as starters though hopefully a couple of them do develope that way. Matter of fact, the lack of bullpen power arms concerned Krivsky so much, he has moved Medlock and Pelland to the pen and drafted a bunch of pitchers who probably have bullpen futures last year.

The bats could use some more raw talent. You have of course Votto/Bruce, the intial flux of college guys from last years draft, but finding some higher upside HS bats high in the draft wouldn't be a bad idea either.

With that out of the way for now, he must turn his attention to building depth(starter and raw bats) with all those extra picks he has.

Of course its top heavy, but I'd much rather have a top heavy system than a system of thirty "C" prospects. To have three guys in the top 15 of all of baseball in terms of prospects is no small feat. Also, with Fisher, Wood, and Valiaka you have three more guys that would at least get consideration for the top 100. I would also like to improve the system, adding an influx of bats and arms, but I think the Reds currently have the best farm system they've had in many, many years, and certainly one of the better ones in all of baseball (with the top 3 alone).