The Scouting Directors, NL Central (Reds)

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=6263

Wait 'Til Next Year
The Scouting Directors, NL Central
by Bryan Smith

This series is my attempt to identify the drafting tendencies of Major League scouting directors. In looking at the scouting directors, I'm hoping that the past might tell us something about the future. I'm analyzing them in multiple categories: Best Player Produced, Best Prospect in Minors, Notable Steals (any notable player that was drafted after round five), Five-Round Strategy (total picks in first round divided by college and high school selections), and Strategy in a Nutshell (subjective look at the scouting director's choices). Finally, I use this information to look into the 2007 Draft Crystal Ball and determine if we can forecast choices merely based upon previous tendencies. Today, we move to the NL Central.

Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley (Drafts Run: 2006, Toronto Blue Jays 2001-2003)

Best Player Produced: Dave Bush (2nd round, 2002)

Best Prospect in Minors: Sean Watson (2nd round, 2006)

Notable Steals: Justin Turner (7th round, 2006), Tom Mastny (11th round, 2003)

Five-Round Strategy: 20 total picks. 85% college, 15% high school.

Strategy in a Nutshell: Buckley's responsibility for running Blue Jays drafts predated with J.P. Ricciardi's arrival in Toronto, but Buckley was retained, perhaps because his first draft showed a semblance of the Moneyball approach Ricciardi hoped to bring up north. Case in point, although Buckley drafted Brandon League out of high school in the second round of his first draft in 2001, he didn't select another prep player in the first five rounds until he took Justin Reed for the Reds in the fourth round last June. Buckley has chosen a college position player in the first round of all of his drafts, and while some of his second-round pitchers have been more successful, Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, and Gabe Gross represent decent value.

2007 Draft Crystal Ball: It's possible Buckley continues his trend of college position players in the first round; if so, pick 15 will be a choice between Julio Borbon and Matt LaPorta. If not, Buckley could go with one of the high school pitchers in the second tier and get his college hitter (perhaps Matt Mangini) at pick 34.

[OnBaseMachine]

If Buckley drafts Julio Borbon in the first round then he should be immediately fired and banned from ever stepping foot in the city of Cincinnati again. Jason Heyward is my guy, if not him then Dominguez. LaPorta wouldn't be a bad pick either.

I'm hoping Ahrens falls to the Reds at No. 34, though I doubt it. I'm seeing his name linked to the Reds at number 15 an awful lot, so I wouldn't be shocked if that's who they choose. Again, Jayson Heyward is my number one choice. There is no way the Reds can pass on him if he falls to 15, unless of course Matt Wieters is still there.

[Xavier Redleg]

If Buckley drafts Julio Borbon in the first round then he should be immediately fired and banned from ever stepping foot in the city of Cincinnati again. Jason Heyward is my guy, if not him then Dominguez. LaPorta wouldn't be a bad pick either.

I'm hoping Ahrens falls to the Reds at No. 34, though I doubt it. I'm seeing his name linked to the Reds at number 15 an awful lot, so I wouldn't be shocked if that's who they choose. Again, Jayson Heyward is my number one choice. There is no way the Reds can pass on him if he falls to 15, unless of course Matt Wieters is still there.

Heyward would be a great pick, but I don't think Borbon would be the worst possible pick. He's played well since he's been healthy. The problem with drafting Julio, however, is that the pick would signal the front office giving up on Stubbs. It's way too early for that IMO, plus that could become a bit of a PR problem.

[edabbs44]

I don't want an OFer in the 1st round unless that player is a lock all-star. I don't care if they are rated the best on the board at that time...they better be way above #16 for them to take him.

[HBP]

Is LaPorta expected to be there at #15? It would be nice to get a true RH power bat in the system. Obviously it wouldn't be smart to take him over a more talented LH bat, but...

[TOBTTReds]

Is LaPorta expected to be there at #15? It would be nice to get a true RH power bat in the system. Obviously it wouldn't be smart to take him over a more talented LH bat, but...

I don't think he will be. But honestly, our park is built for a RH hitter that can go oppage. Look at Rich Aurilia as the prime example. I think he was the #1 or 2 (griffey) beneficiary from our short/jet streamed RF. That's a whole nother topic though.

I take LaPorta in a heartbeat if he is there, doubt it though.

[Superdude]

The problem with drafting Julio, however, is that the pick would signal the front office giving up on Stubbs. It's way too early for that IMO, plus that could become a bit of a PR problem.

How does taking Borbon mean we're giving up on Stubbs? I'd puke if we took Borbon though. Heyward would be awesome. I guess Borbon has a little pop in his bat, but I hate taking speed guys early in the draft.

[LoganBuck]

How are the opinions on Ross Detwiler and Max Scherzer running?

[icehole3]

I have no problem at all if the Reds go all college. I wouldnt mind them drafting a big power hitter, but I'd still want them to go starting pitching with first 3 or 4 picks then go power in rounds 3 on down.

[OnBaseMachine]

Julio Borbon has six walks in 174 atbats this season. I would rather see the Reds pass on their first pick and save the money than to draft Julio Borbon in the first round.

[jmcclain19]

Borbon screams Drew Stubbs part II - toolsly raw athlete that no one is 100% sold will be an excellent major leaguer. That frightens me.

From his scouting report

At his best, Borbon is a top-of-the-order hitter who makes sharp contact and changes games with his plus speed. He's more than a slap-and-run type, with above-average bat speed and some sock in his bat.

Personally - I heart Matt Dominguez. That's who I'd love to see the Reds take first. But I'm pretty nonplussed about a handful of guys - all of which I think the Reds could do just fine by picking. Dominguez, Aherns, LaPorta, Mills, Savery, Schmidt - and there a few guys the Reds could pick up that drop slightly -Moskos, Detwiler, Moustakas, Wieters.

Best case in my mind - Dominguez goes to the Reds at 15 - and Aherns slips to the Supplemental round and is scooped up.

What I really hope the Reds don't do - is fall into the trap of "well we can't take so & so here because 'he's not a 15 guy, he's a 25 guy'. I've read a few anonymous scouting directors say that about Aherns, then mention what a stud he could be. Well - guess what Reds you don't have a pick that late, if you like him take him. The Cubs were roundly mocked here for Colvin's selection in the 1st, but Tim Wilken really liked him and that was his guy, so he picked him. Now Colvin's a developing stud - which doesn't look too stupid now. Same thing with Billy Butler two years ago. Most polished HS hitter available, yet the Royals were pounded on in all corners for underdrafting him. Now at 21 he's already had ABs in the bigs & looks to be a future Corner Stone.

Take your guy - because you'll end up sinking or swimming base off of it.

[IslandRed]

Take your guy

I agree. If draft picks could be traded, then I'd be more sensitive to the underdrafting/overdrafting question. It's worth considering, though, that if "your guy" is someone that you're 99% sure will be on the board at the next pick, maybe with this pick you take a guy you like almost as much who will be off the board by then.