Considering there's three or four Homer Bailey threads all going simultaneously, I'm not sure which one to toss this in ... but I'll just pick this thread for the heck of it ...
Split Bailey's season up into two groups, his first seven starts compared to his last two starts ...
Code:
GS IP ERA DIPS WHIP HR K BB HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB
Bailey #1 7 39.2 2.27 4.00 1.13 2 27 19 0.45 6.13 4.31 1.42
Bailey #2 2 12.2 0.71 1.30 0.63 0 16 2 0.00 11.37 1.42 8.00
Now I know that 2.27 ERA Bailey was carrying after those first seven starts was shiny, but his K/9 rate was significantly down from last season and his BB/9 rate was significantly higher. Not surprisingly, his K/BB rate also dropped off the shelf all the way down to 1.42, and while Bailey did keep the ball in the park still, his DIPS ERA spiked up to 4.00. Essentially, those first seven starts are not at all indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues.
Bailey's last two starts, including last night, are the ones that I want to start seeing in Louisville and they are indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues. His strikeout rate was back up, and his walk rate was back down again. The Homer Bailey that we've seen during his previous two starts is the Homer Bailey that I want to see when he's finally called up to the Reds.
Of course, the catch is we've only seen that Homer Bailey for two starts and 12.2 innings this season in Louisville. I want to see that Homer Bailey for around 75 innings this season in Louisville before he's called up to the majors. That 2.27 ERA he posted in his first seven starts looked fabulous, but it was a touch better than his actual level of pitching.
Now should we expect Bailey to string out another 60-65 innings as great as his previous two starts? Not exactly. But I want to see his next 60+ innings to be at a level closer to Bailey #2 than Bailey #1. If he's able to perform somewhat close to the level of Bailey #2 over his next 10 starts in Louisville, then we can talk about promoting him.
But until that happens, he should stay in Louisville. Two high quality starts by the end of May simply isn't enough to deem Bailey as being "ready" for the majors.