The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

[jojo]

"He's the epitome of a pure projection pitcher. He has plus stuff with a good breaking ball, and he even has a little change-piece now."
--NL scout (via Baseball America circa 2005)

A recent thread examined why Livingston got a call up earlier this month instead of Homer. Roughly two tough weeks later and the Reds look dead in the water with the recent performance by their rotation having spiraled downward (especially at the backend.) They could really use a shot in the arm and there is a growing call from the Reds fan base to promote Homer given his seeming dominance in AAA. So the question becomes, is Homer Bailey ready to contribute at the major league level? In order to help with the debate, here’s the RedsZone guide to Homer's '07 as illustrated by his peripherals in Louisville as of today:

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Some observations:

1. Homer has been kept on a relatively strict 90 pitch limit.

2. His strikeout rate is down considerably from previous years but that’s because Ted Power and the Reds are pushing Homer to develop his secondary pitches so he’s throwing considerably fewer fastballs. Even so, opponents aren't routinely making solid contact. Concerning his stuff, Homer features an elite fastball (mid to high 90's but capable of changing speeds) and a hammer curve with a true 12/6 break (77-80 mph) for two plus pitches. He struggles to command his curve at times and his third pitch, his changeup, is not considered major league quality yet.

3. Given Homer has been utilizing his secondary pitches more frequently, he’s suffered some command issues which have prevented him from going deeper into games. Frankly his command is the primary concern regarding Homer. He’s often just barely begun making it thru the lineup a third time before hitting his pitch limit which is depriving him of some valuable opportunities to learn how to adjust to seeing batters multiple times. Homer's endurance might be considered a question mark since he's only pitched over 130 innings one season thus far. However, his superior frame and "tall" arm slot is the stuff scouts fall in love with so few consider endurance a major issue with Homer. Basically his “pitchability” is still pretty raw.

4. While Homer has been effective in AAA, it’s probably not reasonable to expect him to be a difference maker at the major league level yet. He’s raw and his command issues don’t bode well. A summary of the five available projection systems suggest Homer would be something a little less than roughly league average in the majors this season (projected: ERA=4.65; FIP: 4.94).

These developments are encouraging because they seem to support the notion that the Reds are approaching one of their most valuable commodities with a well-reasoned strategy. If they stick to their guns and don’t promote Homer until he’s truly ready for a long term assignment, ’08 might be a reasonable expectation for his arrival.

[RedsManRick]

Good post JoJo. The thing that concerns me about Homer is his P/PA of 4.1. Let's say he can pitch at the major league level with a WHIP of 1.20. That would be quite solid. A WHIP of 1.20 means that, excluding double plays, he's looking at 4.2 batters per inning. Let's adjust that down to 4.0 (probably generous) to account for those double plays. That means that after 100 pitches, he's just finishing the 6th inning.

He needs to be more efficient with his pitches if he's going to be an ace. I'm all for striking guys out, but if he means throwing a ton of pitches, you're also limiting the length at which you can be effective. For example, Johan uses only 3.3 P/PA and is a great strikeout pitcher. That's part of why he's so great. He's also throwing 67% strikes. I'm really excited about Homer, but there's definitely room for him to improve. Hopefully he do that while contributing at the major league level.

[jojo]

He needs to be more efficient with his pitches if he's going to be an ace.

That's very well said.

[Cooper]

His clock start past the super 2 date on MAy 31st?

I ask cause more and more it seems that keeping costs down are more a factor than the numbers or readiness (Neyer just had a blog post about it).

[fisch11]

With the stuff that Homer has, his stikeout to walk ratio should be ALOT higher. If Aaron Harang can be at about 4 to 1, than Homer shouldn't be far behind it if he is truly ready.

[dougdirt]

With the stuff that Homer has, his stikeout to walk ratio should be ALOT higher. If Aaron Harang can be at about 4 to 1, than Homer shouldn't be far behind it if he is truly ready.

Aaron Harang has some of the best control in baseball. He has not walked more than 3 batters in a game in like 3 or 4 years.

[REDblooded]

jojo, GREAT post.

[jojo]

Aaron Harang has some of the best control in baseball. He has not walked more than 3 batters in a game in like 3 or 4 years.

Right.

Pitchers are always aggregate compromises of the ideal: excellent command/make 'em miss/extreme groundballer.

I suspect Homer will always tend to walk more batters than many starters might (certainly he'll walk more than a guy like Harang) but on the positive side, Homer has better stuff. However, since the first prerequisite is command, Homer still has work to do. While Homer's upside is higher, right now Harang is light years ahead.

RMR pretty much summed it up in one sentence.

[dougdirt]

Right.

Pitchers are always aggregate compromises of the ideal: excellent command/make 'em miss/extreme groundballer.

I suspect Homer will always tend to walk more batters than many starters might (certainly he'll walk more than a guy like Harang) but on the positive side, Homer has better stuff. However, since the first prerequisite is command, Homer still has work to do. While Homer's upside is higher, right now Harang is light years ahead.

RMR pretty much summed it up in one sentence.

Surely I agree with that. Homer is probably always going to have a walk rate over 3.00/9. Bright side is, he projects to have a very solid K/9 rate. Homer is not ready for the big leagues right now (I actually had a 2 day email arguement with Lance about that recently jojo) and in no way do I think he should be brought up right now until he shows better control of his offspeed pitches on a consistant basis. Tonight will be interesting to see how he responds from his last outing that was very solid and easily his best game of the year.

[jojo]

Surely I agree with that. Homer is probably always going to have a walk rate over 3.00/9. Bright side is, he projects to have a very solid K/9 rate. Homer is not ready for the big leagues right now (I actually had a 2 day email arguement with Lance about that recently jojo) and in no way do I think he should be brought up right now until he shows better control of his offspeed pitches on a consistant basis. Tonight will be interesting to see how he responds from his last outing that was very solid and easily his best game of the year.

Bet I know how that conversation went with Lance....

[dougdirt]

Bet I know how that conversation went with Lance....

Yeah, he was trying to compare what Tim Lincecum did to what Bailey has done because Lincecum only threw 60 innings in the minors that somehow since Bailey has thrown 240 he is just as ready. Of course Tim threw 300+ in the PAC 10 and is more than 2 years older than Bailey.... but he wasnt having any of that.

[jojo]

Yeah, he was trying to compare what Tim Lincecum did to what Bailey has done because Lincecum only threw 60 innings in the minors that somehow since Bailey has thrown 240 he is just as ready. Of course Tim threw 300+ in the PAC 10 and is more than 2 years older than Bailey.... but he wasnt having any of that.

With superficial look Lincecum could seem like a good comparible because the big knock on him too was command issues (I think that's why he slipped to 10 wasn't it?). But upon closer inspection, he was simply obscenely overmatching minor league hitters he faced (career minor league k/9=16.73; BB/9: 3.46). Basically like you say, he could've pitched for the Giants without any minor league experience. He has awesome stuff-he can gas his fastball harder than Homer, his curve is even better (scouts grade it as an 80-my god), and his changeup while only probably major league average, is far advanced over Homer's. Those college years make a huge difference. I have no idea why the Reds didn't pull the trigger on this guy!?!


Do you remember their reasoning?

[Aronchis]

With superficial look Lincecum could seem like a good comparible because the big knock on him too was command issues (I think that's why he slipped to 10 wasn't it?). But upon closer inspection, he was simply obscenely overmatching minor league hitters he faced (career minor league k/9=16.73; BB/9: 3.46). Basically like you say, he could've pitched for the Giants without any minor league experience. He has awesome stuff-he can gas his fastball harder than Homer, his curve is even better (scouts grade it as an 80-my god), and his changeup while only probably major league average, is far advanced over Homer's. Those college years make a huge difference. I have no idea why the Reds didn't pull the trigger on this guy!?!


Do you remember their reasoning?

Lack of frame and unorthodox mechanics. That is why he slipped from the potential number 1 choice to number 10.

Lincecum doesn't throw a curve, but a great slider. Scouts grades for Curves can change. Bailey's was lifted to 76 this season from 72 when he was drafted.

[OnBaseMachine]

Lack of frame and unorthodox mechanics. That is why he slipped from the potential number 1 choice to number 10.

Lincecum doesn't throw a curve, but a great slider. Scouts grades for Curves can change. Bailey's was lifted to 76 this season from 72 when he was drafted.

The Tim Lincecum I've seen throws a nasty 12-6 curveball.

[membengal]

So here's the thing, all level-headed analysis aside, I want him in Cincy at some point coming off of the current Reds road trip. I think he's ready. Ready enough anyway. I want something fun to root for. I want some hope. Or some hope for hope.