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Thread: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

  1. #31
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    We are firmly at an agree to disagree point on this, jojo. Not much else to say to each other that won't constitute noise. I think he's ready to help in Cincy now, and see very little downside to that. You think he's not ready to help yet and see a lot of downside to that.

    So be it. I am guessing WK agrees with you. But I wish he agreed with me.
    Last edited by membengal; 05-29-2007 at 03:44 PM.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    So if sweet corn is good, hominy must be also?
    Jojo, I know we usually get along and all..... but please dont ever say sweet corn is good again!

  4. #33
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    I see more 11-5(slider).
    This whole argument has had me laughing. Also, if TL was throwing an 11-5, he'd be left handed, so I don't know who you are watching.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 05-29-2007 at 04:39 PM.

  5. #34
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    This whole argumen has had me laughing. Also, if TL was throwing an 11-5, he'd be left handed, so I don't know who you are watching.
    It can only mean one thing.

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  6. #35
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    For what it's worth, the report on Lincecum seems similar to Bailey in terms of his ability to command his pitches. Lincecum has a 94-95 mph fastball with late movement that he can command. He has a plus hard curve (80+ mph) that he cannot command with regularity and a change-up that is more for show than anything else right now. That's basically it for a repertoire.

    Through 4 starts, he's got a 3.03 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, 25/8 K:BB, and is averaging 6 2/3 IP per start.

    Last night Bailey went 7 in 101 pitches with 9 K, 0 BB, and 5 H. I certainly don't want to waste his arb clock on this season, but if he does this for another month, I'm not sure I understand the value of keeping him him AAA. What is he learning if he can get away with mistakes? I'm all for him becoming more pitch efficient. His 20 BB in 52.1 IP is somewhat scary but if he shows an extended streak of increased control (and thus efficiency), that would the sign to me he's ready to be tested on the big stage.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #36
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Considering there's three or four Homer Bailey threads all going simultaneously, I'm not sure which one to toss this in ... but I'll just pick this thread for the heck of it ...

    Split Bailey's season up into two groups, his first seven starts compared to his last two starts ...
    Code:
    
                GS    IP     ERA   DIPS   WHIP  HR    K   BB   HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB
    
    Bailey #1    7   39.2   2.27   4.00   1.13   2   27   19   0.45    6.13   4.31    1.42
    Bailey #2    2   12.2   0.71   1.30   0.63   0   16    2   0.00   11.37   1.42    8.00
    Now I know that 2.27 ERA Bailey was carrying after those first seven starts was shiny, but his K/9 rate was significantly down from last season and his BB/9 rate was significantly higher. Not surprisingly, his K/BB rate also dropped off the shelf all the way down to 1.42, and while Bailey did keep the ball in the park still, his DIPS ERA spiked up to 4.00. Essentially, those first seven starts are not at all indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues.

    Bailey's last two starts, including last night, are the ones that I want to start seeing in Louisville and they are indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues. His strikeout rate was back up, and his walk rate was back down again. The Homer Bailey that we've seen during his previous two starts is the Homer Bailey that I want to see when he's finally called up to the Reds.

    Of course, the catch is we've only seen that Homer Bailey for two starts and 12.2 innings this season in Louisville. I want to see that Homer Bailey for around 75 innings this season in Louisville before he's called up to the majors. That 2.27 ERA he posted in his first seven starts looked fabulous, but it was a touch better than his actual level of pitching.

    Now should we expect Bailey to string out another 60-65 innings as great as his previous two starts? Not exactly. But I want to see his next 60+ innings to be at a level closer to Bailey #2 than Bailey #1. If he's able to perform somewhat close to the level of Bailey #2 over his next 10 starts in Louisville, then we can talk about promoting him.

    But until that happens, he should stay in Louisville. Two high quality starts by the end of May simply isn't enough to deem Bailey as being "ready" for the majors.
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  8. #37
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Cyclone, would you consider the possibility that some of Bailey's issues early were in part due to the frigid weather? I know that he made at least two starts in ice-box conditions, and for a guy being told to work on his curveball and change, that was less than ideal.

    My point? If he is about to launch on one of his cant-touch-this runs like he did last year at this time, I would like it to be in Cincy, not at L-ville...

    Can we also not agree (and I don't see it in your stats above), that his hit per 9 in the so-called "bad" starts was hellaciously low? That that might mean a little something in terms of his stuff and how unhittable it was, even as the K rate was lower and the BB rate higher? That it might mean he was indeed working on some pitches at the behest of the organization and was still nigh unhittable? I don't see any of that as a reason to hold him back now. I just don't.
    Last edited by membengal; 05-29-2007 at 05:49 PM.

  9. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Just wanted to post this

    Code:
    	W  L  ERA   G	IP    H/9  ER  HR  BB/9   SO/9	 GO/AO	AVG
    April	1  1  1.69  4  21.1  5.06   4  2   3.79   5.48	 1.00	.167
    May	4  0  2.03  5  31.0  5.80   7  0   3.48   8.71	 1.41	.187

  10. #39
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    One of the problems I see is that everyone I've heard in the Reds F.O. has told Homer "once you get called up, you're up for good." Well, that's nice and all, but what if the Reds did call him up right now? What if these last two games were a "mini-peak" in the season and not the start of a torrid hot streak? What if they bring him up and he gets absolutely hammered? Then what do you do? Do you send him back down and look like a liar to the entire organization and fanbase, or do you keep him up on the major league roster and hope that he improves? What if he gets hammered three times out in a row, then what?

    I think the above is one of the main reasons why the Reds WON'T call up Bailey until they are as 100% sure as they can be, that he is ready. I think Bailey is going to have to put up starts like the last 2 for a month before they bring him up. There's a lot riding on the F.O. to get this one right and not have it blow up in their faces.
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  11. #40
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Cyclone, would you consider the possibility that some of Bailey's issues early were in part due to the frigid weather? I know that he made at least two starts in ice-box conditions, and for a guy being told to work on his curveball and change, that was less than ideal.

    My point? If he is about to launch on one of his cant-touch-this runs like he did last year at this time, I would like it to be in Cincy, not at L-ville...
    I'd say the vast majority of Bailey's issues during his first seven starts in Louisville were simply adjusting to AAA. When a guy is promoted to a higher level, an adjustment period is likely going to occur since the level of competition is a bit higher.

    Bailey put himself on a fast track last season by zooming through AA with hardly any bumps in the road, but it was bound for the competition to catch up to him at some point as he kept progressing through the system. That's most likely what we saw during his first seven starts in Louisville, and there's nothing wrong with that. Fortunately, if his last two starts are any indication, it looks like Bailey's made the necessary adjustments for AAA and is primed to make that magical turn and show us what he can do down there now in dominating fashion.

    My point is what I want to see is making sure that the so-called magical turn is for real and not a quick fluke, and I'd like for Bailey to be able to reassure himself that the adjustments he's made so far in AAA are the correct adjustments. Two great starts in a row is akin to a hitter like Joey Votto having two great weeks at the plate. It's great, and we want to see that, but teams will be prone to making mistakes in rushing guys if they have a quick promotion trigger after a handful of starts or a couple plate appearances.

    Give me 10+ starts or two plus months of dominance at that level and then it's time to talk possible promotion or readiness for the next level. Until then, let them continue to work through the necessary adjustments and progress at their current level.
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  12. #41
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    I'll weigh in with a little different perspective.

    Bailey is 21 and has never thrown more than 140 Innings in a season. Conventional wisdom is that innings should increase for that age group by no more than 30 or so per season. If he comes up now he'd have about 20 or 21 starts left. He's already thrown 52 Innings. So he has about 120 left to throw. If he becomes a regular in the rotation that means he could only safely go about 5.66 to 6 innings per start. I suppose he couild be shut down early, but I just don't trust a major league manager who is playing for the right to keep his job to manage Homer with the proper kid gloves. In the heat of trying to win and with a shaky pen, I can see him being pushed beyond his safety zone. The season is too far gone to bring Homer up and risk that. I want him to be an ace in 2009 and don't care much if he's a 5th starter in 2007. Next year, at 22 and with a season of 170 Innings or so behind him, it would be much safer to stick him in the rotation.

    I leave him down. I may give him a cup of coffee late in the year for a few starts (25 to 30 Innings max), but I don't bring him up now when the team is still trying to pretend that there is something to play for in 2007.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-29-2007 at 09:01 PM.
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  13. #42
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Jojo, I know we usually get along and all..... but please dont ever say sweet corn is good again!
    hey...more for me then!

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #43
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    Re: The RedsZone guide to Homer v2.0.0.7 (released 5-27-07)

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Considering there's three or four Homer Bailey threads all going simultaneously, I'm not sure which one to toss this in ... but I'll just pick this thread for the heck of it ...

    Split Bailey's season up into two groups, his first seven starts compared to his last two starts ...
    Code:
    
                GS    IP     ERA   DIPS   WHIP  HR    K   BB   HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB
    
    Bailey #1    7   39.2   2.27   4.00   1.13   2   27   19   0.45    6.13   4.31    1.42
    Bailey #2    2   12.2   0.71   1.30   0.63   0   16    2   0.00   11.37   1.42    8.00
    Now I know that 2.27 ERA Bailey was carrying after those first seven starts was shiny, but his K/9 rate was significantly down from last season and his BB/9 rate was significantly higher. Not surprisingly, his K/BB rate also dropped off the shelf all the way down to 1.42, and while Bailey did keep the ball in the park still, his DIPS ERA spiked up to 4.00. Essentially, those first seven starts are not at all indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues.

    Bailey's last two starts, including last night, are the ones that I want to start seeing in Louisville and they are indicative of a pitcher who's ready for the major leagues. His strikeout rate was back up, and his walk rate was back down again. The Homer Bailey that we've seen during his previous two starts is the Homer Bailey that I want to see when he's finally called up to the Reds.

    Of course, the catch is we've only seen that Homer Bailey for two starts and 12.2 innings this season in Louisville. I want to see that Homer Bailey for around 75 innings this season in Louisville before he's called up to the majors. That 2.27 ERA he posted in his first seven starts looked fabulous, but it was a touch better than his actual level of pitching.

    Now should we expect Bailey to string out another 60-65 innings as great as his previous two starts? Not exactly. But I want to see his next 60+ innings to be at a level closer to Bailey #2 than Bailey #1. If he's able to perform somewhat close to the level of Bailey #2 over his next 10 starts in Louisville, then we can talk about promoting him.

    But until that happens, he should stay in Louisville. Two high quality starts by the end of May simply isn't enough to deem Bailey as being "ready" for the majors.

    I absolutely agree with this.

    I posted this in one of the other Bailey threads:

    All I'm loooking for out of Homer is major league command of his fastball and curve.... while it would be nice to have three major league pitches, with command of two PLUS pitches, he can learn the changeup in the big leagues IMHO.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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