Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 19

Thread: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

  1. #1
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    2,050

    What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    In April, Ryan Freel had a .262/.340/.321 line. In May thru the 27th, it is .245/.290/.404. Overall in 2007, Freel is at .253/.314/.365. His stolen base success rate is 57.1% this year.

    Last season, Freel had a .271/.363/.399 line. His stolen base success rate was 77.1%. The current wisdom is that 75% success rate in SB is a point where the offensive team comes out ahead.

    The Reds really can't afford to have a .314 OBP hitter leading off, especially when he is hurting the team with his base running.

    Another thread does a nice job of documenting Freel's drop in value. (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=58347) The question here is why has his value dropped this year?

    Here are several possible reasons:
    1. Workload. Many have noted that Freel's production drops when he plays every day. Last year, he played in 132 out of 162 games(81.5%). This year, he has played in 48 out of 51. (94.1%). Is it conincidental that we see the drop-off of his stats as the season grinds on?

    2. Age. Conventional wisdom is that most players peak at age 26-29. Freel is now 31. Given his higher reliance on speed and reflexes, we may see a faster than usual drop-off.

    3. Bad luck. Freel's K% is down this year. (2006=21.6%, 2007=15.7%). However, his BB% is also down. (2006=12.5%, 2007=8.4%) His BABIP is down from .330 to .291. So even though Freel is putting the ball in play much more than last year, he is getting on base far less. There is very little change in his GB/FB/LD rates from last year. See this site: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...&position=3BOF If bad luck is playing a role here, we would hope that it simply turns around in the coming months.

    4. Lack of patience/poor pitch selection. As mentioned above, his BB rate has declined markedly. However, Freel is currently 16th in the NL in pitches seen per plate appearance. (3.99 PPA(779/195 ). See this link: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/mlb/...=211&Submit=Go Although his PPA number is down a little from last year, it is hard to make this case stick.

    There are several factors in Freel playing so much: EE sent to minors, Hamilton on DL, etc. However, we are using him as an every day player this year, when he really should be our super-sub. Freel himself has acknowldeed this, and advocated for Hamilton starting in CF.

    We really don't have great alternatives until Hamilton comes off DL next week. (May 18th was the last game Josh Hamilton played before going on the DL. Ryan Freel has played every game since then.) Then, we should get Freel some rest, have him walk more, and hope his luck turns....
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 05-28-2007 at 12:42 PM.
    __________________
    “This one was a perfect one. I don’t know if I can find a better one, better timing. He [Price] really said some great things there. It really encouraged us to go back and do what we do. … I didn’t know he could speak like that.” Brayan Pena 5/21/14

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,915

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Starting every day
    Most Vottomatic Player

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Posts
    1,171

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Good post. All of those are valid reasons for a drop in production but in my opinion he is just not that good of a hitter. He's never going to hit much over .270 or get on base much more than than that .314 OBP. Fans in Cincinnati (including myself) love him for his all-out-style of play and his effort and hustle but his production isn't going to ever be much better than it is right now. He's a lead off hitter who has to swing early in the count because he can't hit an off speed pitch so he's never going to have a high OBP...
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  5. #4
    got alil captain in u?
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Bridgeport Ohio
    Posts
    4,839

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    myself i think it's starting everday that is wearing on freel he plays the game at 110 percent and sometimes i think he just wears himself out to the point where he has mental lapses at the plate and on the bases.

  6. #5
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Columbia, MO
    Posts
    1,908

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    He's never going to hit much over .270 or get on base much more than than that .314 OBP.
    ...uh...

    Career - .272/.362/.381

    No comment on the average, as I don't really think it matters, but he's gotten on base at a good clip throughout most of his career. He's topped a .360 OBP in the three years in which he had his most PAs. Freel may well be due for a decline, but I have a hard time believing he's going to end 2007 with an OBP of .314. Were he to do that, due to his complete lack of power, he would become almost entirely useless, similar to a couple other bench players the Reds are currently carrying *cough*Castro and Hopper*cough*.

  7. #6
    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    1,955

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    I think what Freel really needs to do so his production will go up as would his batting avarge is bunt more.Hes the fastest guy on the team along with hopper and he could beat out bunt hits all game long.That would raise his BA up and it would make Freel look more like a leadoff guy.I personally think he is over swinging with an uppercut on his swing leaving him to hit 70% of his atbats hitting flyballs.A leadoff hitter is suppose to keep the ball on the ground to set the table.Freel is doing that sometimes but he needs to do it alot more!!! If he would start bunting more I honestly think Freel would be an even better player.
    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  8. #7
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,788

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Why is every now acting like Freel has always sucked at getting on base? Did you forget the last three years?

  9. #8
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Career VS. LHP:

    Avg. - .263

    OBP% - .363

    OPS. - .757

    BABIP - .295

    This Year VS. LHP:

    Avg. - .158

    OBP% - .169

    OPS. - .472

    BABIP - .175

    Luck!? Of course he is hitting RHP much better this year and that's what is keeping him afloat. But I'll tell ya what, he hardly ever attempts to bunt (for a hit) anymore. In part because they have taken that away from him in most circumstances.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  10. #9
    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    1,955

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    But I'll tell ya what, he hardly ever attempts to bunt (for a hit) anymore. In part because they have taken that away from him in most circumstances.
    A guy with his speed I think you can never take away a bunt from a guy like Freel.Look at Brett Butler he bunted his whole career and they never could keep him from bunting and getting basehits.
    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Posts
    1,171

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    ...uh...

    Career - .272/.362/.381

    No comment on the average, as I don't really think it matters, but he's gotten on base at a good clip throughout most of his career. He's topped a .360 OBP in the three years in which he had his most PAs. Freel may well be due for a decline, but I have a hard time believing he's going to end 2007 with an OBP of .314. Were he to do that, due to his complete lack of power, he would become almost entirely useless, similar to a couple other bench players the Reds are currently carrying *cough*Castro and Hopper*cough*.
    Admittedly, I did not look at career stats before I made that post. I had no idea that Freel was a career .362 OBP guy. If you look at the more known lead off hitters in the league, Freel is right up there as far as OBP: Damon (.353), Taveras (.334), Castillo (.369), Rollins (.329), Sizemore (.364), Roberts (.349), Granderson (.332), and Eckstein (.350). I suppose I get frustrated with his lack of plate awareness (swinging at pitches and situations he shouldn't, etc.) and his base running blunders which cloud my vision of that career .362 stat.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  12. #11
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    A guy with his speed I think you can never take away a bunt from a guy like Freel.Look at Brett Butler he bunted his whole career and they never could keep him from bunting and getting basehits.
    Good point, however we are talking about a guy who cannot hit a breaking ball consistently so it wouldn't surprise me too find out that he cannot bunt one either.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  13. #12
    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    West Virginia
    Posts
    1,955

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Good point, however we are talking about a guy who cannot hit a breaking ball consistently so it wouldn't surprise me too find out that he cannot bunt one either.
    Very good point, I never thought about that.That would make it harder now that you said that.If I had the speed like hes got and I could'nt hit a breaking ball then I would practice,practice, and practice b/c with his speed the bunt could be a leathel weapon.
    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  14. #13
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,161

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    I think Freel has been way overvalued as a reds player basically since day one because of his style of play. I think what drove Freel for so long was that he knew he had to earn every start he had. Now when he has a starting job he is trying to make things happen when he shouldn't be. I think Freel needs at least 2 days off a week, maybe even three. I also noticed that he gets a horriable jump out of the batters box. He looks like he is trying to drive to ball more and ending with the weight on his back heel which is costing him in both his double play numbers as well as infield hit numbers. If Freel is going to miss anywhere from 5-10 days with his latest collision I woud DL him just to get him more rest.

  15. #14
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Carmel, IN
    Posts
    2,195

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    Didn't Freel tank in May last year? It could be, for whatever reason, May is just a bad month for him.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  16. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    240

    Re: What is causing Freel's drop in production?

    I think that huge collision with Hopper on Monday might be part of the problem too.








    ...what, too soon?
    L.A. manager Grady Little had a bad feeling about Wednesday's game when he saw Harang and pitching coach Dick Pole walking in after Harang's warmup.

    "I saw two big men," Little said. "Either could have shut us out tonight."


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25