Monday 5-28 minor league updates

[dougdirt]

While they might not be exhibiting the skills that Homer exhibits right now, pitchers like Homer exist elsewhere; in fact, I'd wager that some farm system will churn out four aces from their system in the next 5-7 years (though they may not pitch for their originating team at the MLB level). No one would have begun to compare Lincecum to Bailey on their respective draft days, but guess what, Lincecum's probably better. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Liriano all sat in the Giants' farm system just a couple of years ago; all four are ace-level prospects. I know what a good farm looks and sounds like. And the Reds with one ace prospect is not it.

Point being, is that a lot of times high-ceiling guys don't exhibit their ceilings early on and a ton of ubertalents flop. Homer's exciting, but he's ONE arm. That can't be stressed enough. It's not wrongheaded to get just as excited by three high-ceiling bullpen guys, IMO.

Get smarter, get aggressive, and the aces will follow.

Noah Lowry.... Ace? Must be those 31 walks and 37 strikeouts in 64 innings that blind my view on what you are seeing....

[Benihana]

While they might not be exhibiting the skills that Homer exhibits right now, pitchers like Homer exist elsewhere; in fact, I'd wager that some farm system will churn out four aces from their system in the next 5-7 years (though they may not pitch for their originating team at the MLB level). No one would have begun to compare Lincecum to Bailey on their respective draft days, but guess what, Lincecum's probably better. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Liriano all sat in the Giants' farm system just a couple of years ago; all four are ace-level prospects. I know what a good farm looks and sounds like. And the Reds with one ace prospect is not it.

Point being, is that a lot of times high-ceiling guys don't exhibit their ceilings early on and a ton of ubertalents flop. Homer's exciting, but he's ONE arm. That can't be stressed enough. It's not wrongheaded to get just as excited by three high-ceiling bullpen guys, IMO.

Get smarter, get aggressive, and the aces will follow.

I assume you are just talking about pitching? I dare you to find a franchise with a top 3 in the minors on the same level as Bailey, Bruce and Votto. True, the Giants did churn those guys out, but they also gave up on Liriano (and Bonser in the same deal). The Marlins and A's are pretty good at churning out pitching, but after them, who else is even competent? Bottom line is, unless you are one of the above two franchises, pitching is hard to come by. When you look around baseball, the teams that have good young pitching usually has to identify it on other teams, then go out and acquire it. You can maybe develop one ace, developing three or four is damn near impossible.

[Falls City Beer]

I assume you are just talking about pitching? I dare you to find a franchise with a top 3 in the minors on the same level as Bailey, Bruce and Votto. True, the Giants did churn those guys out, but they also gave up on Liriano (and Bonser in the same deal). The Marlins and A's are pretty good at churning out pitching, but after them, who else is even competent? Bottom line is, unless you are one of the above two franchises, pitching is hard to come by. When you look around baseball, the teams that have good young pitching usually has to identify it on other teams, then go out and acquire it. You can maybe develop one ace, developing three or four is damn near impossible.

Yes, pitching.

[Falls City Beer]

Noah Lowry.... Ace? Must be those 31 walks and 37 strikeouts in 64 innings that blind my view on what you are seeing....

Okay, Lowry's a #2.

Jeez you guys can be pedantic. My point is to refute the point that teams don't churn out ace-level arms with some regularity; some do. Having one Homer Bailey is nice, but really, again, it's one arm--one pitch away from a rotator cuff tear.

Fans seem to want to almost will Bailey to be more than he might be. You never know, Bailey's ceiling may just be a Lowry--which is to say, a roaring success. It's really hard to be a great MLB pitcher.

[dougdirt]

Okay, Lowry's a #2.

Jeez you guys can be pedantic. My point is to refute the point that teams don't churn out ace-level arms with some regularity; some do. Having one Homer Bailey is nice, but really, again, it's one arm--one pitch away from a rotator cuff tear.

Fans seem to want to almost will Bailey to be more than he might be. You never know, Bailey's ceiling may just be a Lowry--which is to say, a roaring success. It's really hard to be a great MLB pitcher.

And some fans (like you) want to will him to be less than he might be.

[Falls City Beer]

And some fans (like you) want to [i]will[/] him to be less than he might be.

I'm really doing no such thing. I never have. I want him to be Roger Clemens. The problem is, the vast majority of fans--I believe, including you--expect him to be.

[dougdirt]

I'm really doing no such thing. I never have. I want him to be Roger Clemens. The problem is, the vast majority of fans--I believe, including you--expect him to be.

I enjoy having a positive outlook on what he can be. I have no reason whatsoever to believe that Homer Bailey will settle in as a #4 type pitcher. Until I do have a reason to think that, I surely won't look at him in that way.

[Falls City Beer]

I enjoy having a positive outlook on what he can be. I have no reason whatsoever to believe that Homer Bailey will settle in as a #4 type pitcher. Until I do have a reason to think that, I surely won't look at him in that way.

I don't think any less of you for having that optimism. It's your right and privilege. Plus, you've obviously watched the guy (in person) more than I have.

[tbball10]

im sorry, but noah lowry is not a #2. its that simple.

[Caveat Emperor]

Point being, is that a lot of times high-ceiling guys don't exhibit their ceilings early on and a ton of ubertalents flop. Homer's exciting, but he's ONE arm. That can't be stressed enough. It's not wrongheaded to get just as excited by three high-ceiling bullpen guys, IMO.

I think you're absolutely right.

However, the reverse is also true with pitching -- sometimes it is a who-cares round draft pick that ends up putting it all together and becoming an effective #3 or #4 man in a rotation. Develop a few of those and all of sudden you don't have to hit the FA market agressively looking to pay the Jeff Suppans of the world $40 million dollars for marginally above average production in the middle of a rotation.

The key, as with anything in baseball, is acquiring as many good, talented arms as possible. I think Doug is right in his assessment that the Reds finally seem to be doing that -- there are quite a few guys in this system that have pitching talent. I like the fact that there are a couple of projectable relievers in AA. They, like the #3/#4 prospects, are the guys that save you money and headaches looking for people like them in FA. History tells us the majority of them are going to hit a ceiling or flame out before they throw one major league inning -- but the more you have the better your chances of beating the odds.

I think you're right to say that its foolish to say Homer Bailey solves the Reds problems -- but he is a step in the right direction and I certainly wouldn't hold it against him that he's the best of what's around.