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Thread: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

    How his low hit per nine must annoy you...
    I don't undertand the reason for your tone????

    He does have a plus curve-that describes it's action, not his ability to locate it.

    I'm not sure I agree with the assessment that his change-up is "rapidly improving".

    Is he getting better? I think he is. Does he have more work to do? By all accounts, he does. Try to find a loud voice in the organisation (or from scouts outside it) that are wondering why Homer hasn't been called up yet.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #17
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

    How his low hit per nine must annoy you...
    The plus plus curve doesn't hit the strikezone often enough though (or at least that's what everything I've read about Bailey keeps saying). Major league hitters aren't going to offer at it if it's consistently a ball, choosing instead to sit dead red. I'm not sure how rapid the changeup improvement is either. Supposedly he's throwing it more often, but I haven't seen any glowing statements about its quality. My guess is it would be a show me pitch in the majors, something you toss out of the strikezone in a pitcher's count just to plant a seed.

    Anyway, my concern is that until Bailey can paint with the curve (and it's not easy to do) that major league hitters will work him something fierce and that he'll be burning up pre-arbitration time learning things he could have been learning in the minors.

    The other possibility is the team could put him into a relief role, have him throw two innings every third day or something like that. It's easier to be an effectively wild reliever and it limits his exposure. Of course there might be a temptation to make him the closer, which I would avoid if the long-term plan is to have him in the rotation.
    Last edited by M2; 05-29-2007 at 03:56 PM.
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  4. #18
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Doug, that pretty much sums it up. Like I said in the other thread, probably at an agree to disagree point on his readiness.

    And, regarding his command, since he was apparently sent forth from spring training with a "work on off speed stuff edict", I am not the least bit worried about his command of those pitches off of his April work as the Bats played in the same relative ice box most teams did in April. "Command" of curve balls and change ups, I am led to understand, is harder to come by when your fingers are frozen.

    Not surprisingly, as the weather has heated up, Bailey's "command" of those pitches is reportedly improving. Perhaps a combination of throwing a bunch of those pitches per his marching orders in April and the better weather? Who knows? All I know is he had done everything he's been asked to, and only Kevin Slowey, in a quick look at AAA stats, was putting up consistently better numbers. And even the vet-fetish Twins finally just called Slowey up.

    I don't mean for "tone" jojo, with you or anyone. Just noting that his numbers reveal a guy owning his competition. Which appears to frustrate, at least in some respect, the arguments that he is not ready. Certainly big league batters will lay off a curve ball that is not locating easier than AAA hitters will. But the gap isn't as much top to bottom as some of you make out. And, from what I have heard, that curve ball is starting to locate with authority.

    All of which tells me he is close. Damn close. I don't want him up on this current road trip, but when they come off it? Yeah, I would definititely like to see him up then, on the next home stand.
    Last edited by membengal; 05-29-2007 at 04:07 PM.

  5. #19
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I agree with both Jojo and membengal on this one. How is that possible? I will tell you.

    Jojo is right that for most of this season, Homer Bailey has struggled locating his offspeed stuff for strikes with any consistancy and that can both be seen in his numbers and just by watching him or talking to people who have.

    Membengal is right that Homer has been fairly dominating as far as guys not being able to make much solid contact against him, which can also be seen by looking at his numbers.

    Homer has been really good his last two starts, and this is where I think the two of you are wanting to disagree on. Jojo, I think wants to see it last a little longer and for Homer to have some sustainted success with his stuff before he is going to say that Homer is close to ready. Mem see's what Homer has done and is thinking that its all he needs to see because even before then his numbers were pretty good and now its looking so much better.

    Guys feel free to tell me how wrong I am if I took what you said incorrectly.
    All I'm loooking for out of Homer is major league command of his fastball and curve.... while it would be nice to have three major league pitches, with command of two PLUS pitches, he can learn the changeup in the big leagues IMHO.

    Like RMR summed it up in the other Homer thread....Homer needs to be more efficient with his pitches. That's really all I'm saying.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #20
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    I presume we can agree that 96 pitches, seven innings, eight Ks, no walks, is pretty efficient? Particularly against a line-up last night that was replete with guys that own plenty of major league experience?
    Last edited by membengal; 05-29-2007 at 04:17 PM.

  7. #21
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not sure how rapid the changeup improvement is either. Supposedly he's throwing it more often, but I haven't seen any glowing statements about its quality. My guess is it would be a show me pitch in the majors, something you toss out of the strikezone in a pitcher's count just to plant a seed.
    I cant say that I have seen the change up in action since his second start of the year, but I have listened to most of his starts and Homer is showing the change up and at least at times is throwing it for strikes. I recall one time he actually threw back to back change ups to a batter who swung through both of them.

    Now, whether or not that is happening with consistancy, I cant say. I do think that at least for now he is using it a little more than a 'show me' pitch.

  8. #22
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Sometimes I think people (and I'm not saying you at all, membengal, because I understand your points, just "people" in general) want the Reds to call up Bailey so they can see him in a Reds uniform. So they can watch him pitch in the big leagues and have a feeling like "ahhh, the Reds drafted and groomed this kid, this is the beginning of a new era of Reds baseball!" I admit, it's been awhile since the Reds have had an honest to God decent starting pitcher, but I'll bet half of those people will be the first in line to call him a sham when/if he struggles when he's brought up and not show patience with him.
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  9. #23
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Well I certainly don't want to be lumped in with a "satisfy me now" crowd. IF he were brought up, I would want it for the duration, and would expect lumps.

  10. #24
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Well I certainly don't want to be lumped in with a "satisfy me now" crowd. IF he were brought up, I would want it for the duration, and would expect lumps.
    As I said, I wasn't putting you in that group. I understand your points and realize that you know he's not going to be Nolan Ryan in his prime out of the shoot, I was making a general statement.

    Some of the things I've heard on local sports radio are just mind boggling. One person I heard said that if the Reds brought Homer up now, "he'd be the starting pitcher in the All-Star game this year", but, "they don't want to bring him up because everyone in their starting rotation is already overpaid and they don't want to eat those contracts to make room for him."

    Unbelievable.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  11. #25
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

    Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

    Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.

  12. #26
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I cant say that I have seen the change up in action since his second start of the year, but I have listened to most of his starts and Homer is showing the change up and at least at times is throwing it for strikes. I recall one time he actually threw back to back change ups to a batter who swung through both of them.

    Now, whether or not that is happening with consistancy, I cant say. I do think that at least for now he is using it a little more than a 'show me' pitch.
    I'm guessing it would be a show me pitch in the majors. In AAA he can dare a little more with it, experiment. You experiment too much in the majors and you risk pulling a neck muscle craning your head around to see all those balls getting blasted past you.

    That's really the tough part about the situation he's in. Will he have the space to learn the things he still needs to learn in the majors or will he have to scrap certain things in the interest of survival?
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  13. #27
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Fair point M2, and the biggest thing, perhaps, in the favor or you, red leader, jojo and others on his staying put, is that the coaching staff in Cincy right now is not, frankly, a collection of guys I particularly trust to help him learn those things without scrapping that which is not working.

    A better coaching situation would make me feel better about his development in Cincy, candidly.

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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

    Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

    Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.
    Could it be that Bonderman is the better of the two pitchers and that "ceiling" is more myth vis. pitchers than reality?

    I'm not saying that that's necessarily the case, but I don't think that one should simply discard the suggestion because x-amount of scouts say it's not so.

  15. #29
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs
    He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

    At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  16. #30
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

    At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.
    He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

    If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

    My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.


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