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Thread: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

  1. #31
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    He also cost $2.3M before he had his first good season. That's not a model I'd suggest the Reds try to replicate.

    At the very least I'd wait until I was sure his 2007 wouldn't start his arb clock. I'm not big on the notion of setting him up potentially to walk as a free agent before he turns 27.
    If new ownership is really serious about winning, then we shouldn't have to worry about him walking away a free agent before he's 27

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  3. #32
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Cincy sport talk callers in general make me sad. Always have.

    Bonderman seems to have thrived just fine an early intro into the bigs. There are other examples as well. And, I am sure, a million more the other side can point to who came up early and flamed out.

    Point is, there are no guarantees, and no sure things that the right thing to do is leaving him down, or bringing him up. He can just as easily hurt an arm in AAA as the bigs. But what he can do, I think, is get guys out a rate right now that would be welcome on the Reds, and that his career won't be hurt by doing so. That would be my throw, as far as the uncertainty goes.

    Agreed on that, especially the first part.

    I've seen you compare Bonderman a couple times with Bailey. It may be a fair comp age-wise, but IIRC, Bonderman had major league command of 2 pitches (fastball, slider) when he was brought up to the majors. He also had a changeup and a curve that was an average - above average pitch, but he had trouble commanding them. Still, if he was having problems locating his fastball, he had his slider to go to. Also, he would have lost 20 games that first year had they not skipped his starts at the end of the year. He finished with 19 L's, a 5.56 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, allowed 23 HR's.
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  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

    If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

    My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.
    Define 'nowhere near'.... because I take that as within a full run of ERA and I think Homer Bailey could easily post a 5.89 ERA or lower right now in the NL.... if he just threw fastballs.

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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Define 'nowhere near'.... because I take that as within a full run of ERA and I think Homer Bailey could easily post a 5.89 ERA or lower right now in the NL.... if he just threw fastballs.
    I seriously, seriously doubt he'd have a 5.89 ERA as a starter just throwing fastballs.

    And, of course, performance is more than ERA: K/9, OPSA, HRs surrendered, BB totals--all far more important.

  6. #35
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Red Leader, I was dead serious that I would not flinch if Bailey had a rough go of it in Cincy, and am fully aware of what Bonderman's first year was. I am also aware of the success it has laid the groundwork for.

    Again, it's simply a philosophical difference at this point, and neither side, frankly, is wrong. Or right. There are no guarantees that whatever they do is the right thing to do. Or not do.

    But if it were me, I would bring him up in June about 24 hours after the window closes to start his Super 2 stuff early. That's me.

  7. #36
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I seriously, seriously doubt he'd have a 5.89 ERA as a starter just throwing fastballs.

    And, of course, performance is more than ERA: K/9, OPSA, HRs surrendered, BB totals--all far more important.
    Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.

  8. #37
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.
    I don't doubt that Bailey could post and ERA under 6 right now... I just don't see who that would help anyone....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #38
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ok... maybe not, but I bet it would be close. Although I would bet he would easily be close to what Bonderman did in 2004 in terms of ERA, K/9 and HR allowed. He probably would have a higher walk rate, but still within half a walk/9 in my estimation.
    That's the trouble with walking a lot of people and having command of only one MLB pitch--you won't stick around long enough to put up the kind of K totals that Bonderman put up in 2004. It's a delicate balance; in a lot of ways, it's crucial for a young pitcher to start well because if he doesn't then he's buried beneath a bunch of grotesque numbers (high ERA, low Ks, high BBs) that he may not bounce back from.

  10. #39
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    That's the trouble with walking a lot of people and having command of only one MLB pitch--you won't stick around long enough to put up the kind of K totals that Bonderman put up in 2004. It's a delicate balance; in a lot of ways, it's crucial for a young pitcher to start well because if he doesn't then he's buried beneath a bunch of grotesque numbers (high ERA, low Ks, high BBs) that he may not bounce back from.
    He wont stick around to match those totals anyways.... Bonderman threw 180 innings that year, Bailey wont get close to that, even if they called him up today.

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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He wont stick around to match those totals anyways.... Bonderman threw 180 innings that year, Bailey wont get close to that, even if they called him up today.
    I understand that. You're missing my point--I was speaking hypothetically about Bailey starting the season in MLB and replicating Bonderman's 2004 numbers.

  12. #41
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I understand that. You're missing my point--I was speaking hypothetically about Bailey starting the season in MLB and replicating Bonderman's 2004 numbers.
    Hypothetically he could be having the exact same season he is having in AAA.

  13. #42
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hypothetically he could be having the exact same season he is having in AAA.
    Which would make him the Reds, and a legitimate, ace.

  14. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    He got paid $2.3 million in his second season?

    If Bailey could put up the numbers that Bonderman put up in his second year, then they should have started the season with Bailey up. Worry about money and free agency when money's actually a problem.

    My guess is that Bailey's nowhere near capable of producing Bonderman's 2004.
    I'd put up with one year like Bonderman's 2004. The Tigers paid for two, plus that dog JB put on in 2003. Had he been a rookie in 2005, he'd right now be a plus pitcher staring at arbitration starting next season instead of on a four-year, $38M contract at age 24. Basically what I'm saying here is don't pay for a 21-and-under pitcher unless he's Dwight Gooden (a full grown man with a a full grown man's stuff). I'd trade Homer at 21 for Homer at 27.
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  15. #44
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    But would Bonderman have still gone through an adjustment upon getting up in 2005? I say yes. Perhaps it would not have been like 2003, but he also would not have gone straight to his 2005 numbers I don't imagine. The work he did in Detroit in 2003 and 2004 paved the way for his 2005...

  16. #45
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    Re: My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    But would Bonderman have still gone through an adjustment upon getting up in 2005? I say yes. Perhaps it would not have been like 2003, but he also would not have gone straight to his 2005 numbers I don't imagine. The work he did in Detroit in 2003 and 2004 paved the way for his 2005...
    Exactly my question--that presupposes adjustments made at AAA would transfer to MLB success.

    I'd pay 5-7 million for Bonderman's 2004--it was a better season than what Harang's putting up currently, in a much tougher offensive division.

    Bonderman's career arc has been about all you can ask for. Plus he looks like Powder combined with Michael Chiklis--which is rad.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-29-2007 at 06:08 PM.


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