The real fact is, Lincecum's career may look good now, but how about 3 seasons from now? 1 season from now? You never are going to get EVERYBODY. Considering your building strategy in the minors, you may miss a obvious risk that pans out............or not. The problem with flops is when they continue year after year. Even Dean Taylor has had some decent picks with the Brewers.
The draft is a crapshoot my friends. The better recruiters will hit more often, but the misses still will come as well.