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Thread: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

  1. #31
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    I don't honestly care if he hits .240 with his plate discipline, defense, and speed.
    I'm worried about Stubbs hitting .240 in A ball. Dunn hit .304 throughout his minor league career.

    I could be wrong, but when patience is already your calling card and you have trouble making regular contact, it seems unlikely you're going to suddenly develop better hand/eye coordination. When Stubbs has to face guys who can locate those pitches with movement, then what?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Well the thing with Stubbs is, there are coaches in the minor leagues. Hopefully somewhere along the way someone can identify something in his swing that if changed, will help him out. He is still probably 2 years away at best.... that is a lot of time for someone to work with him on his approach.

  4. #33
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    I'm worried about Stubbs hitting .240 in A ball. Dunn hit .304 throughout his minor league career.
    And Chris Denorfia hit .236 in full-time play at high A in 2003, at the age of 23. He had 106 Ks vs 54 BBs.
    With all the talk about how Denorfia should play center because of his decent OPS projection and plus defense, you'd think there would be a better appreciation of Stubbs' strengths as a CF prospect.

    Anybody can draw this-player-here vs that-player-there comparisons to make their point -- just like you can look back at just about every draftee ever and find players who were selected later who end up with better careers (that's the baseball draft, folks). But, in some important respect, every player is unique and will forge a path that no other has taken, certainly augmented by his particular style of play. That's kind of what I get focused on once a player enters the Reds system, and Stubbs remains for me a very interesting prospect based on his plus power, plus speed and plus defense, combined with solid plate discipline. My take all along is that he was a safe pick, with the only downside risk being that his offense could tank precipitously and affect his whole game. Hasn't happened yet, in my book.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #34
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Have you ever seen the guy play? He's got plenty of baseball skills. How he doesn't have a baseball skill set to you is beyond me.

    The guy is already a major league player with his defense and speed. His patience has been there his whole career also. If the guy manages to hit even .240 and get on base at a .350 clip and slg in the .400 we got something.
    He wasn't even close to being the best hitter on his own team, much less considered to be anything spectacular in the Pioneer League. Dorn, Parker, Turner and Valaika all out hit him by a WIDE margin. Billy Rojo had only 6 fewer BB's with an identical SLG. And yes, I know defense matters, but is his defense THAT spectacular? It had better be considering his OPS was around 200 points lower than 5 other guys. FCB nailed it on his power. Stubbs had 6HR's last year, three behind Parker, the team leader, and 2 behind Dorn and Valaika. While that isn't a huge gap, look at the number of doubles for those three guys:

    Valaika 22
    Dorn 17
    Turner 16
    Parker 12
    Stubbs 7

    No gap power for Stubbs, meaning without a true hit chart to go by, I'm thinking most of his HR's are severe pull jobs. His lack of doubles is even more alarming when you see he led the team in SB's with 19. I'd say his power is less than moderate.

    Considering just how many times this team has screwed up the first pick, whether that screw up was over-working the pick (Howington, 141 IP in his first professional season), punting a better pick due to supposed signability issues (Kazmir) for a lesser pitcher (Gruler) or just punting it altogether (Sowers) you'd think that Linecum would have been a serious no-brainer.

    I like everyone on here hopes Homer Bailey lives up to his incredible potential, but had the Reds, going back to JimBo's days in charge had drafted and signed Kazmir, Sowers and Jared Weaver, They'd have arguably the best young rotation in all of baseball. Yeah, big if, but all of those picks seemed like no-brainers to almost everyone on this board at the time.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #35
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He wasn't even close to being the best hitter on his own team, much less considered to be anything spectacular in the Pioneer League. Dorn, Parker, Turner and Valaika all out hit him by a WIDE margin. Billy Rojo had only 6 fewer BB's with an identical SLG. And yes, I know defense matters, but is his defense THAT spectacular? It had better be considering his OPS was around 200 points lower than 5 other guys. FCB nailed it on his power. Stubbs had 6HR's last year, three behind Parker, the team leader, and 2 behind Dorn and Valaika. While that isn't a huge gap, look at the number of doubles for those three guys:

    Valaika 22
    Dorn 17
    Turner 16
    Parker 12
    Stubbs 7

    No gap power for Stubbs, meaning without a true hit chart to go by, I'm thinking most of his HR's are severe pull jobs. His lack of doubles is even more alarming when you see he led the team in SB's with 19. I'd say his power is less than moderate.

    Considering just how many times this team has screwed up the first pick, whether that screw up was over-working the pick (Howington, 141 IP in his first professional season), punting a better pick due to supposed signability issues (Kazmir) for a lesser pitcher (Gruler) or just punting it altogether (Sowers) you'd think that Linecum would have been a serious no-brainer.

    I like everyone on here hopes Homer Bailey lives up to his incredible potential, but had the Reds, going back to JimBo's days in charge had drafted and signed Kazmir, Sowers and Jared Weaver, They'd have arguably the best young rotation in all of baseball. Yeah, big if, but all of those picks seemed like no-brainers to almost everyone on this board at the time.
    Yet Weaver is already having arm issues.
    "The way I throw, it's going to be an issue.....I've had it since high school. It sticks around for a long time and it's a matter of knocking it out. With my mechanics and different arm slot, I put a little more stress on my shoulder."

    "We can make some subtle changes. He has a pronounced turn toward the plate and the deception in his delivery could put a strain on his shoulder or elbow. It's something he's lived with for a long time, and something he'll have to battle to keep his strength where it needs to be so he can pitch with those mechanics. It it take two weeks, it takes two weeks. I don't think it's to a point where he will miss any apppreciable amount of time."
    Hindsight is very clear, but if Lincecum was such a slam dunk, he wouldnt have made it to #10. 9 teams passed on him. Last years draft class was very weak, easily one of the weakest draft classes ever. Is Lincecum the guy everyone in the top 10 will look back and think "what if" about? It very well could happen, but seriously, the hype this guy has gotten for 31 innings in the minor leagues is unreal, and honestly, its unwarranted. Hitters have had no adjustment period to what he throws, as he split his 31 innings between 2 leagues. He is ridiculously small, weighing in at 160 pounds as a 22 year old. Let the guy get his feet wet in a full season before making a full judgement on him, and that goes for both Lincecum and Stubbs.

  7. #36
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He wasn't even close to being the best hitter on his own team, much less considered to be anything spectacular in the Pioneer League. Dorn, Parker, Turner and Valaika all out hit him by a WIDE margin. Billy Rojo had only 6 fewer BB's with an identical SLG. And yes, I know defense matters, but is his defense THAT spectacular? It had better be considering his OPS was around 200 points lower than 5 other guys. FCB nailed it on his power. Stubbs had 6HR's last year, three behind Parker, the team leader, and 2 behind Dorn and Valaika. While that isn't a huge gap, look at the number of doubles for those three guys:

    Valaika 22
    Dorn 17
    Turner 16
    Parker 12
    Stubbs 7

    No gap power for Stubbs, meaning without a true hit chart to go by, I'm thinking most of his HR's are severe pull jobs. His lack of doubles is even more alarming when you see he led the team in SB's with 19. I'd say his power is less than moderate.

    Considering just how many times this team has screwed up the first pick, whether that screw up was over-working the pick (Howington, 141 IP in his first professional season), punting a better pick due to supposed signability issues (Kazmir) for a lesser pitcher (Gruler) or just punting it altogether (Sowers) you'd think that Linecum would have been a serious no-brainer.

    I like everyone on here hopes Homer Bailey lives up to his incredible potential, but had the Reds, going back to JimBo's days in charge had drafted and signed Kazmir, Sowers and Jared Weaver, They'd have arguably the best young rotation in all of baseball. Yeah, big if, but all of those picks seemed like no-brainers to almost everyone on this board at the time.
    You do realize that was like 250 at bats? In the guys first ever attempt at pro baseball.

    I know it's the in thing to judge signings the day after they are signed, but it's not realistic.
    He's a college bat and he doesn't have all the time in the world, but he isn't done.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  8. #37
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    I'd say his power is less than moderate.
    He hit 2 more home runs in the first-round series they lost in the playoffs.

    You can run down his power all you want, but the scouting on him says otherwise. He's got years of development ahead of him and the kind of frame that should add strength well.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  9. #38
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    You do realize that was like 250 at bats? In the guys first ever attempt at pro baseball.

    I know it's the in thing to judge signings the day after they are signed, but it's not realistic.
    He's a college bat and he doesn't have all the time in the world, but he isn't done.
    You also realize that Turner, Dorn, Valaika and Parker made their professional debuts in 2006 right? None had the so called pedigree of being a first round pick, and all of them out hit Stubbs, by a WIDE margin.

    I never said he was done. What I implied was he wasn't worthy of a first round pick, especially to an organization as pitching starved as Cincinnati's.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #39
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    He hit 2 more home runs in the first-round series they lost in the playoffs.

    You can run down his power all you want, but the scouting on him says otherwise. He's got years of development ahead of him and the kind of frame that should add strength well.
    No gap power. I mean none. 7 doubles in 250 AB's? that's pretty weak by any standards. That isn't me running down his power, it's him not displaying it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yet Weaver is already having arm issues.
    Hindsight is very clear, but if Lincecum was such a slam dunk, he wouldnt have made it to #10. 9 teams passed on him. Last years draft class was very weak, easily one of the weakest draft classes ever. Is Lincecum the guy everyone in the top 10 will look back and think "what if" about? It very well could happen, but seriously, the hype this guy has gotten for 31 innings in the minor leagues is unreal, and honestly, its unwarranted. Hitters have had no adjustment period to what he throws, as he split his 31 innings between 2 leagues. He is ridiculously small, weighing in at 160 pounds as a 22 year old. Let the guy get his feet wet in a full season before making a full judgement on him, and that goes for both Lincecum and Stubbs.
    Yeah, And I thought Weaver was rushed. Kazmir dropped pretty far too, and I thought he was rushed. And yes, Kazmir was a slam dunk. He was the best HS pitcher available, and probably the best overall LH pitcher available too.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #41
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Not saying Kazmir wasnt a slam dunk.... although I was a little younger then and didn't follow the draft like I do now. Lincecum however was not a slam dunk pick at the time.

  13. #42
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    compared to Stubbs he was.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #43
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    No gap power. I mean none. 7 doubles in 250 AB's? that's pretty weak by any standards. That isn't me running down his power, it's him not displaying it.
    Soo.. did you understand that in my post I made the distinction between current power and projected power?

    Since you're big into the counting stats here, keep in mind that Valaika, Parker and Turner all had more PAs than Stubbs -- in the cases of Parker and Valaika, significantly more. Also, as a footnote, beyond the 2 HRs Stubbs had in the 2-3 postseason games they played, he also 3 triples, which narrows the EBH rate gap a little between him and the guys you're claiming have better power.

    For your consideration:
    Reds 2006, doubles
    Clayton -- 30
    Aurilia -- 25
    Hatteberg -- 28
    Phillips -- 28
    Dunn -- 24

    Does this mean Dunn has less gap power than these guys?

    Stubbs may very well have some of that all-or-nothing performance in his swing, like Dunn, but is that a fatal flaw?

    In your haste to bury Stubbs your argument ignores the essentials of scouting and develoment. He's got plenty of time to refine his legitimate tools, unless, as appears to be the case, you believe he's a finished product at the age of 21. He's not as polished as some of his Billings teammates -- but that shouldn't surprise anyone who knew what he was coming out of Texas. The art of scouting is in projection -- and that's where Stubbs is considered to have more room to make gains than the others do.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #44
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Soo.. did you understand that in my post I made the distinction between current power and projected power?

    Since you're big into the counting stats here, keep in mind that Valaika, Parker and Turner all had more PAs than Stubbs -- in the cases of Parker and Valaika, significantly more. Also, as a footnote, beyond the 2 HRs Stubbs had in the 2-3 postseason games they played, he also 3 triples, which narrows the EBH rate gap a little between him and the guys you're claiming have better power.

    For your consideration:
    Reds 2006, doubles
    Clayton -- 30
    Aurilia -- 25
    Hatteberg -- 28
    Phillips -- 28
    Dunn -- 24

    Does this mean Dunn has less gap power than these guys?

    Stubbs may very well have some of that all-or-nothing performance in his swing, like Dunn, but is that a fatal flaw?

    In your haste to bury Stubbs your argument ignores the essentials of scouting and develoment. He's got plenty of time to refine his legitimate tools, unless, as appears to be the case, you believe he's a finished product at the age of 21. He's not as polished as some of his Billings teammates -- but that shouldn't surprise anyone who knew what he was coming out of Texas. The art of scouting is in projection -- and that's where Stubbs is considered to have more room to make gains than the others do.
    Most scouts doubted his bat. Most scouts thought his bat wouldn't translate professional ball. Most scouts thought the Reds were reaching with this pick.

    His 3 3B's do not narrow the gap as 3 of the four guys mentioned had at least 3 triples, with Valaika having 4. Dorn had 2.

    And significantly more PA's? Stubbs did get a concussion in August, though I don't know how much time he missed. But he had about exactly the same number of PA's as Danny Dorn. But he projects to be a better hitter right? but he didn't out hit Dorn though they had about exactly the same amount of experience?

    Yeah, right now I see Stubbs as somewhat of a bust, and I see Linecum getting a look at the rotation or at least a bullpen spot with the Giants in '07. I think that is rushing him, but he's on the cusp of making his major league debut. I doubt we see Stubbs in a MLB uniform before 2009 if at all.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    compared to Stubbs he was.
    Well no crap. Stubbs comes from possibly the weakest draft class ever (2000 was equally as bad probably). There was no slam dunk last year. I dont see the point you are trying to make.


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