Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

[TRF]

You mean if they get there. Right now, only Weaver has pitched in the major leagues. Maybe long term Bailey will be better. And maybe his arm falls off this year. Weaver has produced, Bailey might.

Same goes for Stubbs vs Linecum. Linecum barring injury will likely be in a Giants uni this year. Stubbs will likely be a Dayton Dragon. Maybe he goes all Jay Bruce on the Midwest League. Or maybe he turns in a BJ Szymanski performance.

So far, Stubbs has put up numbers inferior to Jay Bruce, even though he should be more advanced than Bruce.

[dougdirt]

Weaver is having serious arm questions right now as well, Bailey seems to be healthy as can be, and is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Weaver did very well last season, but this season things are starting off badly and he seems to think he needs to "pitch tendonitis out of his arm". For some reason that sounds like a very bad idea, and apparently its been something that has been lingering with him since High School. I will take my chances with Bailey.

As for Bruce putting up better numbers than Stubbs, I expect that. If Stubbs came out in the 2005 draft, he would have been a late first round/early second round pick. There arent many players with the talent that Jay has. With that said, that doesnt mean Stubbs should be written off as bust because he has been outperformed by one of the best prospects in baseball.

[TRF]

He wasn't just outperformed by Jay Bruce.

He was out performed by half the starters on his team. All with the same experience. Not out performed a little either. These guys dominated the Pioneer League. So if coaching is a key component, and I agree that it is, then What has Stubbs shown that says he will take that coaching and leapfrog 4 guys that had monster seasons compared to Stubbs?

I think projections are important. I do, but I prefer results mixed in. There were a lot of scouts that had serious questions about Stubbs' bat. He didn't do a thing to quiet those concerns. Meanwhile, after having a "meh" first year as a professional, Stubbs makes top 10 lists for the Reds all over the place while most of the four guys that out hit him in every single category go largely unnoticed.

[edabbs44]

Bottom line, Stubbs looked horrific last season. He's got talent and athletic ability. He could turn it around. He could also pull a Szymanski.

I'm hoping he doesn't go the way of BJ, but I wish Cincy wasn't in this position. I wish they drafted a pitcher. Whether it be Lincecum, Bard, Scherzer, Kiker or someone else, this team did not need an outfielder, plain and simple.

And for the record, the Watson pick might look worse than Stubbs when it's all said and done. I wasn't really excited about these two guys in the first 2 rounds.

[dougdirt]

And for the record, the Watson pick might look worse than Stubbs. I wasn't really excited about these two guys in the first 2 rounds.

I am with you that at the time, I hated the first 2 round picks..... HATED them. But, both players have lots of potential, we just need the organization to groom them.

[TRF]

I am with you that at the time, I hated the first 2 round picks..... HATED them. But, both players have lots of potential, we just need the organization to groom them.

But you can say that about every player.

Truth: Scouts had doubts about Stubbs bat.
Truth:Good pitching is harder to find than good hitting.
Truth: At the start of 2006, the Reds best pitchers were at High A or lower, and the offense for the next 5-6 years seemed pretty set.

Stubbs was a bad pick, and he hasn't done much to distinguish himself. Now I hope he turns it on this year, but I'm not seeing it. I really do hope I am wrong since Krivsky has done his best to decimate the Reds offense.

[Handofdeath]

I think HS position players are a different animal. But more on that in a minute.

Yep. I regard Linecum as a suspect. I'd have regarded Weaver that way too. But both are suspects in an area the Reds are hopelessly bankrupt in. Both were college pitchers. Both close to contributing. I see Cueto in AA this year too, but I am not sure that isn't rushing him. He started last year at Dayton. If he gets jumped to AAA, well Low A to AAA in less than 18 months is some speedy promotions for a pitcher of his age and background.

Which brings me to the HS players being a different animal. And you touched on it yourself: Coaching.

Drew Stubbs had the benefit of three years of coaching at a Big 12 school. Bruce's line of .257/.358/.457 was still better than what Stubbs did, even though Stubbs had the benefit of better coaching and facilities for three years prior to his professional debut.

Some guys just take longer to develop and it's not fair to pick and choose who's worthy of being patient with and who isn't. The same rules should apply to everybody. I know of a player who played in parts of 6 minor league seasons. His career minor league numbers are worse than Stubbs one season.

Stubbs .257/.358/.457
Player B .251/.312/.412 in in 998 Minor League AB's

We'll go back to Player B in a moment. This much I know. Coming out of college Stubbs was ranked by Baseball America as
1. Best college athlete in the draft
2. 3rd best power hitter coming out of college
3. 2nd fastest baserunner
4. 3rd strongest collegiate arm
5. Best defensive player coming out of college

Seems to me Stubbs has more than enough talent that he deserves a little patience. Player B didn't have his numbers TRF but you have stated on more than one occasion that if Player B just received a decent opportunity he would be great. Drew Stubbs was a heck of a player in college and deserves the same patience that you have shown for a former Reds player by the name of Wily Mo Pena.

[dougdirt]

But you can say that about every player.

Truth: Scouts had doubts about Stubbs bat.
Truth:Good pitching is harder to find than good hitting.
Truth: At the start of 2006, the Reds best pitchers were at High A or lower, and the offense for the next 5-6 years seemed pretty set.

Stubbs was a bad pick, and he hasn't done much to distinguish himself. Now I hope he turns it on this year, but I'm not seeing it. I really do hope I am wrong since Krivsky has done his best to decimate the Reds offense.

Dont get me wrong, I still am not happy with the Stubbs pick. If I could redo it, I wouldnt take him and that isnt based on his performance in Billings. However, if the Reds truly thought he was the best play available, then I dont fault them for taking him. You cant draft based on what you have, you have to draft based on talent and who you think is the best guy.

[TRF]

Some guys just take longer to develop and it's not fair to pick and choose who's worthy of being patient with and who isn't. The same rules should apply to everybody. I know of a player who played in parts of 6 minor league seasons. His career minor league numbers are worse than Stubbs one season.

Stubbs .257/.358/.457
Player B .251/.312/.412 in in 998 Minor League AB's

We'll go back to Player B in a moment. This much I know. Coming out of college Stubbs was ranked by Baseball America as
1. Best college athlete in the draft
2. 3rd best power hitter coming out of college
3. 2nd fastest baserunner
4. 3rd strongest collegiate arm
5. Best defensive player coming out of college

Seems to me Stubbs has more than enough talent that he deserves a little patience. Player B didn't have his numbers TRF but you have stated on more than one occasion that if Player B just received a decent opportunity he would be great. Drew Stubbs was a heck of a player in college and deserves the same patience that you have shown for a former Reds player by the name of Wily Mo Pena.

Stubbs doesn't have half the Talent of WMP. Also Pena had to overcome a ridiculous major league contract and made his professional debut at age 17.

not a fair comparison.

Dont get me wrong, I still am not happy with the Stubbs pick. If I could redo it, I wouldnt take him and that isnt based on his performance in Billings. However, if the Reds truly thought he was the best play available, then I dont fault them for taking him. You cant draft based on what you have, you have to draft based on talent and who you think is the best guy.

ding ding. this is what I was waiting for, and it's an issue that I have argued for about for most of last year.

These are the same guys that helped form opinions that Joe Freaking Mays had something left to offer. And Yan and Franklin and Majewski. Say what you want about DanO, but his drafts combined with the talent acquired in the international talent pool under his watch were far superior to what came before and after his tenure. Krivsky's talent evaluators picked Stubbs. That much I agree with you on. I just doubt their ability to judge talent.

[dougdirt]

TRF, I am a big supporter of Dano. I think he was dealt a horrible set of cards and he was overruled on several trades that would have drastically improved our club and overridden on the Eric Milton deal that he did not want to sign becuase Carl Lindner was worried about bad PR of losing Paul Wilson after 2004 and not spending any money so he had to get that big name that was left. Do I doubt the ability to scout from Krivskys guy? Not yet. I didnt like the Stubbs or Watson picks, especially where they were taken when other players I wanted were available.... but I liked the Valaika pick and the Ravin pick. Time will tell how they did.

[TRF]

Oh, don't get me wrong... IMO DanO was an awful GM. But he did have two pretty good drafts, and injuries to pitchers were down under his watch. Krivsky has expanded and modified the pitch counts, got rid of the silly take the first pitch, but his promotions were... odd. Cueto was promoted while Wood was not. Ward should have gone to Sarasota ahead or Cueto. Pelland was sent to AA even though he should have repeated High A. But DanO overpromoted Pelland too.

Is Krivsky a better GM than DanO was? probably. but that ain't saying that much. DanO was better at eyeing young talent. Krivsky is better at LTC's. Krivsky made some good trades, and some bad ones. Dano had horrible FA signings, but had to deal with Lindner and Allen.

[Betterread]

I think any comparison of a pitcher and an centerfielder is flawed. They have such different roles on the baseball field. I think the proper comparison for Stubbs would be - was he the best centerfielder in the 2006 draft? I would give this year's draft 3-4 years, any sooner and you risk having your analysis be superficial.

[Handofdeath]

Stubbs doesn't have half the Talent of WMP. Also Pena had to overcome a ridiculous major league contract and made his professional debut at age 17.

not a fair comparison.

The only talent WMP has is hitting homers. Doesn't walk, can't steal bases, can't play defense and Boston is already talking about trading him. And his being 17 years old when he made his debut makes him about a year younger than the average Rookie League player. So I don't have much sympathy. I would also point out that WMP being 17 was in Dominican years. Stubbs was a very good college baseball player for at least 2 seasons.

[TRF]

The only talent WMP has is hitting homers. Doesn't walk, can't steal bases, can't play defense and Boston is already talking about trading him. And his being 17 years old when he made his debut makes him about a year younger than the average Rookie League player. So I don't have much sympathy. I would also point out that WMP being 17 was in Dominican years. Stubbs was a very good college baseball player for at least 2 seasons.

He was actually first signed at 15, had the deal voided by MLB and his agent took advantage of the kid and got him signed to a MLB contract. He never got the chance to develop properly. That said last year at age 24 his BA was .301, OBP .349 and a .489 SLG. For the first time in his career, he dominated RH pitching. He's a lousy RF, but an average to above average CF. go figure.

The real difference though is his contract. He never had time to develop in the minors. he lost a season when he was in AA with Dunn and Kearns due to an injury. I doubt Boston is seriously considering trading him considering Drew failed his physical.

And as for WMP's "Dominican" age it has been more than confirmed that he was actually younger than first reported.

[Handofdeath]

He was actually first signed at 15, had the deal voided by MLB and his agent took advantage of the kid and got him signed to a MLB contract. He never got the chance to develop properly. That said last year at age 24 his BA was .301, OBP .349 and a .489 SLG. For the first time in his career, he dominated RH pitching. He's a lousy RF, but an average to above average CF. go figure.

The real difference though is his contract. He never had time to develop in the minors. he lost a season when he was in AA with Dunn and Kearns due to an injury. I doubt Boston is seriously considering trading him considering Drew failed his physical.

And as for WMP's "Dominican" age it has been more than confirmed that he was actually younger than first reported.

I was kidding about his age but any Dominican player must have his age questioned. You're right in that he never got the chance to to develop properly with the Reds in the minors but he has had plenty of time to learn on the job in the majors. He had great numbers last year, but for only half a season. He still hasn't done it over a full season and what's more his OPS the last two months of 2006 was under .800. Do your research and you'll find that Pena was on the block all winter. The Sox tried to get Chad Codero for him and also talked with the Astros about one of their relievers. You'll also find that he'll be platooning once more this season. He'll be starting according to MLB.com against Lefties and playing against some righties. Pena has monumental power but you overrate him. He has few other skills. To say that Stubbs doesn't have half the talent of WMP is willfully ignoring facts. Make any excuse you want but Pena has never been successful at any level for any extended length of time. Stubbs was a Grade A All American college baseball player who played in the toughest college baseball conference in the country and he was damn good there. Just because his first pro season didn't go well doesn't mean he'll never be worth a damn as a major leaguer. I would also mention that he played at Billings right after a full season of college baseball. He played 118 total games last season. The most he ever played before was 72. Perhaps playing at Billings he was tired. Being the Big 12 Co-MVP of the year and having a 1.019 OPS that season and stealing those 26 bases for Texas can wear a guy out. Did I mention that Stubbs was also a member of UT's NCAA championship team in 2005 as well? .311/.384/.527/.911 with 32 SB's in 38 attempts that season. And played an outstanding CF to boot. Stubbs has more overall talent than Pena will ever have, no matter how far WMP can hit a baseball. Stubbs deserves more than the benefit of the doubt.