Reds won't draft for big-league needs --MLB.com Mark Sheldon 5/30/07

[Aronchis]

Not to the same degree.

At least they used to. 2000's have begun to challenge that as the better handling of highschool pitchers has helped give some success stories recently.

That doesn't mean that the majority of high school pitchers will outperform the college pitchers, but this draft is strong in the highschool ranks. I wouldn't touch guys like Main,Beaven or Porcello. Matt Harvey has a very similiar build and motion to Homer Bailey which may make him a better risk, because that is what all picks are.

[The_jbh]

From drafts as recent as 2004 and 2005- Justin Verlander, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon were sure things. It is of note that one of the three was chosen at the #15 slot.

Verlander wasn't a sure thing coming out of the draft. Teams were concerned with a violent pitching motion and control. He CLEARLY had the best stuff in that draft but teams didn't know if he'd be able to put it together... the doubters were obviously wrong

Gordon is in a little over his head. I have faith that with a year of acclimation he will be a star in this league...

[edabbs44]

Last time I checked Alex Gordon was hitting 185 with a sub-600 OPS. Are you sure he is a sure thing?

Matt Bush was picked before Verlander (#1 overall) in 2004 and he is looking like a complete bust at this point. Jeff Clement was picked immediately after Gordon (#3 overall) in 2005 and he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag since leaving single-A.

I repeat, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Funny timing. Not sure as to why this doesn't happen more often. From rotoworld today:

The Padres announced that they're converting Matt Bush, the first overall pick in the 2004 draft, into a pitcher.

It's something that started to be seriously considered last year, and when Bush hit just .204 in 98 at-bats in high-A ball to begin 2007, the Padres chose to have him make the switch. Bush, who had a 0.42 ERA in 66 innings as a pitcher in high school, is said to "ecstatic" about the move. He would seem to have a better chance of reaching the majors as a reliever than he did as an infielder.