Dunn contract details

[I(heart)Freel]

Watching the game tonight, I heard Welsh explain what he'd heard about Dunn's contract situation and how that could hurt his trade value (or at least diminish the possibility).

I quickly googled and found the report to which he was referring.

Reds left fielder Adam Dunn lacks a no-trade clause, but his contract includes a provision that grants him his own form of protection, effectively allowing him to determine his own fate.
If Dunn is traded, his $13 million club option for '08 will be voided, making him a free agent at the end of the season, according to a source with knowledge of his contract.

Thus, any team that acquired him likely would request a negotiating window to sign him long-term, rather than simply rent him for two or three months.

If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing.

That was pretty important and information I certainly didn't have when speculating what to do if we're still out of it in the coming weeks before deadline.

You got Junior with 10/5 rights (and therefore trade refusal) and you have Dunn as a rent-a-player if traded and therefore less value.

Ugh. Not sure if we fall out of it if we'll get that influx of young talent we need. Unless a team that trades for Dunn negotiates an extension and/or the Reds find a place that Junior likes (close to home and close to World Series).

Possible? Sure. But suddenly less probable.

[Sean_CaseyRules]

Wow, I had no idea about his clause. That brings his trade value WAAAAY down this year. Maybe if he goes on an extremely hot streak, when can "rent" him away to the Yankees. They seem to need some LH hitting power.

[RedlegNation]

Good. We need to keep him and just accept him for what he is, rather than bashing him for what he isn't. IMO.

[eastkyred]

I've got no problem with what dunn is as a player, except for he will get paid $13.5 mil next year which I think straps the reds pretty bad with the contracts of Harang and Arroyo jumping up to the $10 mil range next year as well. I still believe the reds could get a few good players that could help next year and have the money to sign 1 or 2 more, if they put Dunn on the market. Not a knock on Dunn necessarily, just a business decision to try and improve the team.

[Razor Shines]

I've got no problem with what dunn is as a player, except for he will get paid $13.5 mil next year which I think straps the reds pretty bad with the contracts of Harang and Arroyo jumping up to the $10 mil range next year as well. I still believe the reds could get a few good players that could help next year and have the money to sign 1 or 2 more, if they put Dunn on the market. Not a knock on Dunn necessarily, just a business decision to try and improve the team.

Maybe an insignificant difference but for the record Harang is due to make 6.75 mil next year and Arroyo will make 6.45 mil. in 08.

[Degenerate39]

Good. We need to keep him and just accept him for what he is, rather than bashing him for what he isn't. IMO.

I couldn't have said it better myself

[TC81190]

Good. We need to keep him and just accept him for what he is, rather than bashing him for what he isn't. IMO.

And pay him 15 mil for what he isn't. No thanks.

[redsfanmia]

And pay him 15 mil for what he isn't. No thanks.

Thats my point, Dunn is what he is but I just hope the Reds dont pony up 15 million a year for him. Dunn is a great complementary player but he is not a conerstone and thus shouldnt be paid as one IMO.

[eastkyred]

Thats my point, Dunn is what he is but I just hope the Reds dont pony up 15 million a year for him. Dunn is a great complementary player but he is not a conerstone and thus shouldnt be paid as one IMO.

Well said. Other higher payroll teams can afford 15 for Dunn, but not the Reds. Not if we want to compete.

[texasdave]

If you look at AD's contract in a certain light you should be heartened if you are a fan of the Cincinnati Reds. As has been pointed out the contract is structured in such a way that it makes it very difficult for him to be traded. One would surmise that Dunn realizes he can make his money anywhere. So why all the stipulations that make it difficult to move him? Because he likes playing in Cincinnati. That would be one very reasonable conjecture. I'd also venture to say that being a teammate of Junior is of importance to Adam. So he made it hard to trade him. That is fine by me.

[klw]

I find it interesting/telling that the Reds have not yet picked up the option for '08. I am curious if a delay in this will cause any friction as the year proceeds.

[boognish]

The Reds can afford him at this price; they just need to save money over the greater part of the 25-man roster with minimum or near-minimum players on the bench, in the bullpen and at certain starting positions.

Here are some pre-arb players who will certainly or almost certainly be on the 25-man, and whose performance will largely determine whether the Reds can compete, and whether they compete will be a large part of the equation as to whether Dunn is signed to another medium- or long-term deal*:

Bullpen: Coutlangus, Salmon, Burton, Bray
Bench: Hopper
Starters: Votto, Bailey, Hamilton

Belisle, Majewski, EE, and Phillips are all arbitration-eligible and should be offered arbitration...not sure about EE so correct me if I am wrong.

Harang, Arroyo, Dunn (if option assumed), Griffey, Gonzalez, Weathers, Stanton, Coffey, Ross, Freel (bench) and Castro (bench) are under contract.

Other players have not been mentioned because I hope the Reds will cut bait as they are not under contract: Milton, Lohse, Saarloos, Valentin, Conine, Moeller and Hatteberg.

*All contract info from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...i-reds_24.html.

Doing this research, and assuming nobody is cut loose or their contracts eaten (defeating the purpose of this exercise) and all arb-eligibles I recommended are retained, 15 players are either under contract or should be offered arb, and 8 "free talents" have already been identified, including Votto and Bailey penciled in to starting roles. That leaves one 5th starter type and a backup catcher to sign on the cheap (think non-roster invitees like Santos or, in the past, Aurilia) if Dunn is retained, or paying "full market value" for a corner OF/1B who can approximate his offensive production.

For good or ill, the Reds' roster is pretty much set, and any aspirations of contention in '08 bank on Votto and Bailey's production being so far above and beyond Lohse and Co/Berg's as to vault the Reds to the 90-win level. The Reds are set to build from within, and with Harang's and Arroyo's respective contracts escalating in 2009 and 2010 to the 8-figure level, fans are pretty much counting on the FO's intelligence in signing/replacing Dunn and its ability to find cheap talent in the draft and second-tier FA.

The dynamics of the roster can vary a bit, most notably with a large return from a trade, but with Griffey's 10-5 and Dunn's partial no-trade, I lean more towards the FO standing pat, and angry Reds fans.

[I(heart)Freel]

Great post, Boognish, and a great starting point for real discussion.

I might suggest or hope that perhaps we could get a better catcher and move Ross to that reserve role. Of course, I think I would prefer to do that via trade to get a young, high-upside guy with better defense and a decent stick.

Then use that Milton money for a good backend starter. But I wonder... in your research did you do any math to see where our payroll is for next year, with the players you outlined above? Maybe that Milton money is already spent with raises to our arb guys?

These are all legit questions and debates for right now, because knowing what you have and what you need for 2008 should greatly steer trade talks in the coming weeks.

[boognish]

I think my initial post was backwards, and this time, I’ll construct the roster starting with the guaranteed contracts and work back to the free talent.

Long story short, let's divide into categories, assuming again that Dunn’s option is picked up:

2008 monies tied up in players under contract (in millions of dollars): Harang 6.75, Arroyo 6.45 (includes 2.5 mill for signing bonus), Dunn 13.00, Griffey 12.5, Gonzo 4.625, Weathers 2.75, Stanton 3.00, Coffey 0.925, Ross 2.525, Freel 3.00, Castro 0.975.

This totals 56.50 Million dollars, and nets the Reds 5 pitchers (2 starters, 3 relievers) 2 starting OF, 1 C, 1 SS, 1 backup IF, and 1 super sub, for a total of 11 players.

Players with options, excluding Adam Dunn:

Hatteberg 1.85 MM
Valentin 1.30 MM
Guardado 3 MM

I think Hatteberg would be a great bench player, so we will assume his salary and keep him on as “Votto insurance.” We will assume the other 2 players’ spots will be taken by “free talent.” The roster is now at 12, with 58.35 million allocated.

At this point the player payroll is already approaching this year’s level of ~69 million--the 2007 payroll accounting for LaRue’s money owed to the Royals and Cormier’s money--and the at-least minimum salary calculated for the 13 players not under contract (including arb-eligibles). 13*380K for these players is 4.94 million, and that pushes the payroll up to 63.29 million.

From here, we move on to the arbitration eligible players--for whom we do not know the level of salary escalation--Belisle, Majewski, EE, and Phillips. Someone who knows more about the process than I do should clarify how to calculate these salaries, and true to his form with Harang, Krivsky might buy Phillips out of his arbitration and initial FA years with a LTC. As far as roster spots, assuming these guys are all retained, that is 2 starting IF, a starting P, and a relief P, giving a total of 16 players, and the salary increases for these guys gives the Reds a payroll in a similar range to this year’s.

This leaves 9 players left for “free talent” promotions or acquisitions. Within the organization we can find the players I listed in my previous post, along with other prospects such as McBeth, or others who don’t look to be quite ready. Catcher is the glaring hole, and the Reds will likely get another starting pitcher…if they go the FA route, you have essentially the same team as this season.

For the purposes of this discussion, I have left performance incentives off the 2008 payroll, such as Freel’s based on PA and Weathers’s based on games finished. I have also deferred contract buyouts, notably Griffey’s and Stanton’s, to the 2009 payroll.

Delving into the numbers for 2009 and beyond, it looks like the Dunner’s gone, and my opinion is he will likely be sold without equal value attained. Griffey’s salary goes to 16.5 MM (with a 4 MM buyout), and Harang and Arroyo are making 10 figure salaries as alluded in the previous post. A large enough portion of the young talent will be accruing service time and shall be in arbitration or FA at this point…as with almost all teams, the Reds’ ability to compete will depend on the quality of the players the Reds’ system churns out, and Krivsky’s ability to find good players in other teams’ garbage.

[jnwohio]

Good. We need to keep him and just accept him for what he is, rather than bashing him for what he isn't. IMO.

Dunn drove a run in all 3 games in Houston without the benefit of a long ball (unless you count that SAC fly that would have been a grand salami just about anywhere else).

He deserves a share of the grief he gets but it should cut both ways.