Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
The other thing is to consider context. Salty is a Braves prospect, and their affiliates typically play in pitcher-friendly environments. (It's one reason their pitching prospects are often overvalued.) He's also been young for the levels. What I've seen is a guy who broke out in 2005, putting up a .913 OPS in High-A as a 20-year-old, in one of the more extreme pitcher's parks in minor-league baseball. Last year? Not so good. He was slumping and he was hurt, probably related causes, but after he sat out to rest his injury he went right back to raking. He's been raking this year.
I think it's valid to question him on the general grounds of being a catcher, with all that comes with being a catcher, and maybe -- maybe -- there's grounds to question his ability to stick behind the plate, given that he's not naturally great defensively and he's tall for a catcher. But his ability to hit? I don't question that at all.
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But what about from the Braves' point of view?
For starters, it's likely the Braves would address their obvious pitching deficiencies before dealing Salty to try to upgrade an offense that has been producing more than just fine. Sure, Willie Harris will fall hard and Thorman is still very questionable as a run-producing first baseman, but cheap LF/1B production is relatively easy to find and relatively cheap to acquire.
Furthermore, I haven't seen this mentioned, but Adam Dunn is not exactly the poster child for Atlanta Braves style baseball. Philosophically, the Braves have been as pro-NL Style as it gets. Bobby Cox does a great job of taking advantage of his players' strengths, but I just don't see Adam Dunn's total package as something the Braves are seeking in a LF. As much as we ORG Redszoners appreciate Adam Dunn for what he is, the Braves are an organization that will not overlook what he is not. I can't see a team like the Braves taking that big of a hit to their OF defense, nor can I see them pairing Dunn with Andruw Jones to go back-to-back with the two highest strikeout hitters in baseball. You can certainly argue whether that's smart or not, but I just can't see the Braves organization going in that direction.
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Bingo, doesn't mean he sucks or that Cox and crew are insane, what it means is there are many paths to the goal and chances of the Braves and Dunn crossing (at the cost of players developed in their system with high ceilings) is not going to happen.I haven't seen this mentioned, but Adam Dunn is not exactly the poster child for Atlanta Braves style baseball.
I'll say this, if it happens it's very likely the baseball equivalent of the marriage of Julia Roberts and Lyle Lovett.
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Griffey may actually have more appeal than Dunn right now in terms of trade value, as he's signed for next year (I never thought that would be an advantage), and is producing better offensively than Dunn. The big advantage of a team getting Dunn is having him get a looksee of the team and increasing your chances of signing him long term.
I think Griffey to ATL makes a tremendous amount of sense. He is going to be a draw when he hits 600. He is a proven veteran who has been pretty healthy this year and has finally gotten his bat right. His contract is not huge for his production and it is not that long any more. And Jr would be closer to home and playing with a legitimate contender.
Salty may be a very good prospect (top notch, in fact) but you are still talking about a prospect, a guy who you don't know what you are going to get at ML level. If ATL has an OF and offensive hole, you give up Salty for Jr every time, especially if CIN pays some of the contract IMO.
Keep Adam Dunn, obtain Salty while not sacrificing MLB talent. I don't see why this is a hard concept.
We know what we have in Adam Dunn, we know what he'll give us.
We have zero clue what Votto, Stubbs, Cueto and Wood can offer.
We have a pretty good idea what Salty can offer.
Adam Dunn > Votto, Stubbs, Cueto and Wood IMO.
Adam Dunn for the next 4 months on a team going absolutely nowhere < Votto, Stubbs, Cueto and Wood without question.
The Reds should absolutely pay Adam Dunn a contract in the range of $100 Million over 7 years, which equates to a little over 14 Million a year.
Votto should have some impact over the next 3 years, but the same can't be said about Stubbs, Cueto and Wood.
We will agree to disagree that the Reds should pay Dunn that much money. I don't think its worth it.
As for Cueto, Wood and Stubbs over the next 3 years.... you may be right, although I bet Cueto and Stubbs at least are in the majors by then and Wood is at least in AAA if he stays healthy. Of course you are forgetting about the whole thing where Dunn would be traded for Salty, so at that point you are getting plenty of production out of him as well.
There is NO WAY I pay Dunn $100M to play leftfield for me.
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I think the Reds and Redszone, need to come to terms with how they truely feel about Adam Dunn.
1. If you view him as important cog in the offensive future of the Reds, that means they must pay him ~$15 million for the next five years. He needs to go to first base as well, he isn't going to be getting any faster over that period of time. Joey Votto will probably need to be traded, and they will lose out on the opportunity to get slighly less production in terms of OPS for pennies on the dollar they will pay Adam Dunn. Assuming Votto can do what many people believe he can do.
2. Trade Adam Dunn for _______ prospect(s), or something else. I don't think you can get enough value back in return for Adam Dunn in any trade. Too many people are of the mindset that strikeouts are BAD. This extends to GM's as well.
I don't really have the answer, but I think in a market like Cincy you cannot afford to pay him what he deserves. We have been down that path with Ken Griffey Jr for the last eight seasons. The As and Jason Giambi parted ways, the Reds would probably be well suited to do the same thing with Dunn.
With all that being said, I would love to see a trade for Salty with either Dunn or Jr.
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