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Thread: Salty solution

  1. #31
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Why dont you want the deal involving Dunn? Do you really think he resigns with the Reds? If so, how much money do you think he will sign for? And then, do you really think its smart to sign someone like Adam Dunn for that much money?

    The tone of your questions would suggest that they are rhetorical in nature. You're in favor of trading Dunn and the fact that I may not, is what really prompted your response. That's cool, but that wasn't the crux of my point.

    I will say that if I'm trading Dunn, I'd ask for more than Saltamacchia for him. If Saltamacchia were to be packaged with someone else...Someone else more substantial, I'd give it a chance.

    We all know I like Adam Dunn, and I'm unappologetic about it, but even if I didn't, I'd want my team to get maximum value for him. Could I be selling Saltamacchia short? I'm not sure, but conventional wisdom would suggest that Dunn's a proven commodity that should command more of a return than an unproven catching prospect.

    Here's a question for you (and then I'm gonna try and avoid getting into another Dunn conversation.....But you've already sucked me in, you scoundrel . Why do you think Dunn makes so much money?
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  3. #32
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    We've had this conversation going on here now for three days. Anyone know how good a defensive catcher Saltamachia is? I can only guess that he must be outstanding, or he wouldn't have been taken with the 33rd overall pick in the draft (1st Round).

    There was one post, like mine that assumed he was not as good as McCann, since the Braves are publicly saying that they're committed to McCann, but I would love to see a Major League scouting report on him.
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  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    The tone of your questions would suggest that they are rhetorical in nature. You're in favor of trading Dunn and the fact that I may not, is what really prompted your response. That's cool, but that wasn't the crux of my point.

    I will say that if I'm trading Dunn, I'd ask for more than Saltamacchia for him. If Saltamacchia were to be packaged with someone else...Someone else more substantial, I'd give it a chance.

    We all know I like Adam Dunn, and I'm unappologetic about it, but even if I didn't, I'd want my team to get maximum value for him. Could I be selling Saltamacchia short? I'm not sure, but conventional wisdom would suggest that Dunn's a proven commodity that should command more of a return than an unproven catching prospect.

    Here's a question for you (and then I'm gonna try and avoid getting into another Dunn conversation.....But you've already sucked me in, you scoundrel . Why do you think Dunn makes so much money?
    Dunn makes so much money because he hits HRs and has a big bat. Teams will pay big bucks, and sometimes overpay for them just like they do pitching. I like Adam Dunn, so don't get me wrong when I say this, but he isnt worth the 15 million bucks he will be getting whenever he signs his name on a contract next.

    And yeah, I think you are selling Salty a little short and wanting to sell Dunn a little high. If Adam Dunn were still under control for another team if traded for more than 4 months, then yeah, I would say you should get more for Dunn.... but when you are talking about trading 4 months worth of Dunn, you arent going to get as much back as you would like.

  5. #34
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    No. Not for Saltalamacchia straight up.

    He is very much a 'can miss' prospect.

    Below are the list of his Pecota comparables. I'm not stating that Pecota is the gospel. But this points out how catching prospects trail only pitching prospects in volatility. It's so easy for these guys to take a foul ball of the wrist and never be the same. Some of these guys were supposed to be either the next Mike Piazza, or at least the next Jason Kendall (when he was good).

    I'm not in the trade Dunn camp, but if you trade him, you need to get an 'A' prospect (like Salt) and at least a couple of B's as well.

    1 JUSTIN HUBER 2004 42 11 JON TUCKER 1999 30
    2 GUILLERMO QUIROZ 2004 41 12 J.D. CLOSSER 2002 27
    3 WES BANKSTON 2006 37 13 NATE ESPY 2000 26
    4 CHARLES ALLEY 1999 35 14 JARED ABRUZZO 2004 26
    5 JASON DEWEY 1999 33 15 RICHARD BROWN 1999 24
    6 GEORGE KOTTARAS 2005 33 16 BEN PETRICK 1999 24
    7 ANDY MARTE 2005 32 17 Bill Freehan 1964 24
    8 RAMON CASTRO 1998 32 18 CRAIG WILSON 1999 24
    9 JEFF MATHIS 2005 31 19 JUAN TEJEDA 2004 22
    10 J.R. HOUSE 2002 30 20 DERNELL STENSON 2000 21
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  6. #35
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19 View Post
    Ken Rosenthal was actually on XM earlier this week and said that he hadn't heard any rumors about it, but a Junior to Atlanta for Salty straight up made a huge amount of sense for both sides.
    Once again Rosenthal proves himself a deep thinker.... (that's sarcasm)

    The best prospect in baseball at the most premium defensive position with a bat good enough to DH/play first.... I just gotta think a saavy GM like Schuerholz can do better than giving Salty away for the priviledge of paying Jr top dollar.
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  7. #36
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    I will say that if I'm trading Dunn, I'd ask for more than Saltamacchia for him. If Saltamacchia were to be packaged with someone else...Someone else more substantial, I'd give it a chance.
    I suspect any deal involving Dunn will be a complicated one both in personnel on both ends (i.e. not a one for one and not a Dunn for several) as well as complicated negotiations for an extension for Dunn.

    If Dunn was being traded to the Braves for the remainder of the year, he might net Salty straightup but probably not. Other teams could put together more enticing offers than 3 months of Dunn. But that's just my opinion and you never know. I'm certain of this though....the Braves GM isn't the one that usually comes out on the short end of a trade.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #37
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Stubbs, Votto, Cueto, Wood.

    Those 4 should do it.

    If we're thinking Votto's really the next big thing @ 1B, then keep Votto and find another piece.

    I'm really thinking those 4 get it done.

  9. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Stubbs, Votto, Cueto, Wood.

    Those 4 should do it.

    If we're thinking Votto's really the next big thing @ 1B, then keep Votto and find another piece.

    I'm really thinking those 4 get it done.
    I cant justify giving up 4 of our top 10 prospects for 1 prospect. Just seems like too much to me.

  10. #39
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I cant justify giving up 4 of our top 10 prospects for 1 prospect. Just seems like too much to me.
    Agreed. Salty is a great prospect and definitely fits a need, but that is far too much IMO. It's risky enough to develop prospects, but it's even harder when you deal 4 of your best prospects (and all 4 have a shot) for a prospect that although is the best in the group, is not overwhelmingly more valuable than Votto. It's not like Salty is a sure thing. As a catcher, anything can happen from here on in.

    In terms of trade value, I think just Votto and Wood (maybe an upgrade to Cueto) would get it done.

    That might make some sense for the Braves too, since they have no need to play Salty at catcher, and Votto arguably has the better bat. Plus they would get an extra pitching prospect.

    Still, it would be in the Reds' best interests to make the deal around Griffey or Dunn IMO. Votto looks like a pretty good bet to give the Reds good production in the near future at cheap rates while the other guys are already making lots of money. However, if Dunn is traded, I need more than Salty in return.

  11. #40
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    Re: Salty solution

    Good read. Choosing the next move as Dunn is traded, which will happen, is a good move and probably already in the works. What if Dunn wants to go back to Texas, he's been leaning towards them for a long time. It's hard to get him back on the plane to come home. Would there be a multi team trade that could be worked out?

  12. #41
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Have you guys looked at the league leaders in OPS lately?

    1. Barry Bonds 1.099
    2. Chipper Jones 1.017
    8. Ken Griffey Jr. .922
    10. Adam Dunn .911

    Adam Dunn is heading back to where we expected him to be at this point. Too many people IMO are still killing him based on the end of last season. His defense has improved and isn't the bottom of the barrel in the NL as some would have you believe. Dunn is 3rd in homeruns, 8th in walks, 6th in runs, and 7th in slugging. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=6763)

    I'm not sure why he doesn't deserve 13-15 million from the numbers he is putting up based on the current salaries in baseball. Just because he has struck out 1000 times, literally, in his career doesn't mean he isn't very, very valuable. Adam Dunn is much more valuable to any team than Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

    Adam Dunn is also only 27 years old. What am I missing?
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  13. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Have you guys looked at the league leaders in OPS lately?

    1. Barry Bonds 1.099
    2. Chipper Jones 1.017
    8. Ken Griffey Jr. .922
    10. Adam Dunn .911

    Adam Dunn is heading back to where we expected him to be at this point. Too many people IMO are still killing him based on the end of last season. His defense has improved and isn't the bottom of the barrel in the NL as some would have you believe. Dunn is 3rd in homeruns, 8th in walks, 6th in runs, and 7th in slugging. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=6763)

    I'm not sure why he doesn't deserve 13-15 million from the numbers he is putting up based on the current salaries in baseball. Just because he has struck out 1000 times, literally, in his career doesn't mean he isn't very, very valuable. Adam Dunn is much more valuable to any team than Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

    Adam Dunn is also only 27 years old. What am I missing?
    I completely agree JPUP. Add in the fact that the Reds will have plenty of cheap and young position players and options to fill out the pen and the bottom of the rotation and it seems like there should be plenty of Money saved from Milton/Lohse/Griffey/Hatte/Conine/Larue/Stanton/Weathers/Saarloos/Castro/Javy to pay the built in raises for Harang and Arroyo, deal with raises for Phillips et al, acquire a solid rotation pitcher and an impact bullpen guy. The team would be set with Dunn in LF creating runs with Hamilton, Votto, EdE, Phillips and Bruce.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  14. #43
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Have you guys looked at the league leaders in OPS lately?

    1. Barry Bonds 1.099
    2. Chipper Jones 1.017
    8. Ken Griffey Jr. .922
    10. Adam Dunn .911

    Adam Dunn is heading back to where we expected him to be at this point. Too many people IMO are still killing him based on the end of last season. His defense has improved and isn't the bottom of the barrel in the NL as some would have you believe. Dunn is 3rd in homeruns, 8th in walks, 6th in runs, and 7th in slugging. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=6763)

    I'm not sure why he doesn't deserve 13-15 million from the numbers he is putting up based on the current salaries in baseball. Just because he has struck out 1000 times, literally, in his career doesn't mean he isn't very, very valuable. Adam Dunn is much more valuable to any team than Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

    Adam Dunn is also only 27 years old. What am I missing?
    Its not that Dunn doesnt deserve 13-15 million, he might. The thing is, can and better yet, will the Reds pay any one player 15 million a year over 5 years? Maybe one day, but I don't see that day right now and I don't see it being on Adam Dunn with the way this team values 'pitching, defense and the little things', all of which Adam Dunn does none of well. Also, I am willing to go out on a limb and say Adam Dunn from now until the end of the season is not as valuable as Salty over the next 5.5 years.

  15. #44
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    Re: Salty solution

    Adam Dunn at first base for 5y/15M is worth debating. In left field, not so much.

  16. #45
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Salty solution

    The more I've read on Salty I'm not so sure I'd do this.

    1) He's got the type of premium bat you aren't going to want to lose if he plays too much at C.

    2) Appearently he isn't a premier defensive C because his entire ML career there has been talk ofthe move to 1B. Now the big club openly states he isn't unseating their franchise guy.

    3) This regime's defense first mindset/lipservice, they might very well be content with a cheap young all glove no hit C. He's already in house and under control.

    4) Obviously, if salty now becomes just a switch hitting 1B prospect it completely changes the value anyone would assign him, how he potentially fits your club and who you would trade for him.

    Like ED said, I'd love to hear a real MLB scouting report on him as a catcher but by piecing together what has been said about him before with what is being said now, it looks as though his future isn't at C.

    That said if it got even 2/3 of JR's contract off the books I'd trade him for pretty much anyone. If it returned a legit prospect like this more's the better, we'll find a place for him to play.

    I think you can do better than just salty for Dunn.


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