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Thread: Keith Law mock draft

  1. #16
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The Reds have more high picks than usual, and Way-K has gone on record saying that signability is a factor. Ahrens at 15 wouldn't surprise me, but I would love to see the Reds be able to afford the best player for each pick.
    Not signing Stanton and trading for Conine would have loosened up some money.

    And before everyone says "That came out of the payroll budget, not the draft budget", that might be true. But the $$$ all comes from the same place. I'm sure WK could get some extra dollars for the draft if he was smarter in other areas.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    I have my doubts about Way-K having 100% control of the budget.

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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Ed, you never really said what the Reds lose by giving away the farm that they're going to go with Ahrens.

    If a guy drops out of the top 10 I'm sure they'll look at him, but you're gnashing your teeth over something that very well may not happen. Ideally I guess the Reds would make a top 15 draft board and draft whomever they have highest on that board. However, signability is and should be an issue.

    Its easier to negotiate with 1 guy than 15, and above all else its important to know the guy is going to sign before you waste the pick.

    Theoretically you could budget enough to make sure it doesn't matter who you draft, you'll be able to sign them. But does that affect the other 50 picks, especially when you have so many in the sandwich rounds.

    The other factor in this is if most everyone is tipping their hand, then the Reds probably do have an idea who will be drafted before 15. If a guy they've projected to be higher slips, they'll know ahead of time and be able to make adjustments.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Ed, you never really said what the Reds lose by giving away the farm that they're going to go with Ahrens.

    If a guy drops out of the top 10 I'm sure they'll look at him, but you're gnashing your teeth over something that very well may not happen. Ideally I guess the Reds would make a top 15 draft board and draft whomever they have highest on that board. However, signability is and should be an issue.

    Its easier to negotiate with 1 guy than 15, and above all else its important to know the guy is going to sign before you waste the pick.

    Theoretically you could budget enough to make sure it doesn't matter who you draft, you'll be able to sign them. But does that affect the other 50 picks, especially when you have so many in the sandwich rounds.

    The other factor in this is if most everyone is tipping their hand, then the Reds probably do have an idea who will be drafted before 15. If a guy they've projected to be higher slips, they'll know ahead of time and be able to make adjustments.
    This was one of my issues:

    2) Think about this. BA has Ahrens ranked at 28 right now. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could fall to Cincy at 34. Say a team like Texas (with picks at 24 and 35) likes him as well. If Cincy were to take the BPA at 15 then hope that Ahrens drops to 34, Texas might take him at 24 since they know Cincy will pick him at 34. Trading or no trading of picks, it's not good for everyone to know who you really want in a draft.

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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I have my doubts about Way-K having 100% control of the budget.
    If it would stop him from signing the next Mike Stanton (aka Todd Jones) by putting more into the draft, I'd be all for it.

  7. #21
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If it would stop him from signing the next Mike Stanton (aka Todd Jones) by putting more into the draft, I'd be all for it.
    I second that. This team has thrown away more money over the last 5 years, on poorly designed decisions, it is not funny. That money could have gone to the draft. Given the recent uptick in talent in the minors at least they are doing a better job scouting talent. I didn't like the Stubbs pick last year, but I understood it. I really like the rest of the draft last season. A couple more of those would really hit the spot.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    I see, so it's not the tipping of the hand so much as tipping of the hand to pick a "lesser prospect" that you're worried about.
    Sorry about taking too much time between replies, i hate it when people do that.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    MLB.coms latest draft projections.



    1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
    Still the same. They won't officially say it before draft day, but it's hard to imagine them going in a different direction.
    Last projection: Price

    2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
    This has been the guy, and continues to be the guy the Royals want. The only thing that could change this at the last minute is a financial issue, but, as of right now, there's no reason to assume that there will be one, even if Porcello is a Scott Boras advisee. If they do have to go in another direction, they could go with California high school third baseman Josh Vitters.
    Last projection: Porcello

    3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
    While the Cubs may like Jarrod Parker's arm, everything points to them going with a bat. That bat is Vitters, still considered by many to be the top high school hitter in the country. The Cubs have been on him all along and he's done nothing to have them look elsewhere.
    Last projection: Vitters

    4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
    There are a few different directions the Pirates could go in should Vitters not be there for them at No. 4. They could go college bat, and that would mean Matt Wieters. They could stay in their own backyard for another high school position player, catcher Devin Mesoraco, who worked out at PNC Park recently. Or they could go with who they decide is the best college arm. That likely would mean either Daniel Moskos or Detwiler and the guess is here they'll decide on the latter.
    Last projection: Matt Wieters

    5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
    With Detwiler off the board in this scenario, he's no longer a possibility for the Orioles. Rumors continue that they might make a big splash and if Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters did fall to here, they wouldn't pass him up. If they don't want to go down that road (Wieters is a Boras advisee), then they could go north of the border and take Aumont, the big, projectable right-hander who's been very impressive all spring in a number of settings.
    Last projection: Ross Detwiler

    6. Washington Nationals: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
    With Max Scherzer out of the picture, it gets a little more interesting for this pick. There is interest in California high school infielder Mike Moustakas if they wanted to go with a bat here. But it seems more likely now they'll go with a pitcher. If the Royals decide they can't take Porcello, the Nats might be the beneficiary of getting the perceived top prep arm in the class. They'd also probably take Detwiler should he still be available. In this scenario, he's not, so they'll take the next best college arm in Moskos.
    Last projection: Max Scherzer

    7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
    The Brewers are looking at a host of players. They've liked Moustakas' bat all along, but there was always the question whether they would be able to afford his price tag (he's a Boras advisee). They'd consider a college arm like Detwiler or Moskos, but both are gone in this scenario. So is Philippe Aumont on the prep side. Nick Schmidt could enter into the conversation and, like with a lot of teams, Devin Mesoraco is a possible backup plan. Instead, they'll take the next best high school arm on the board, a guy they've liked from the beginning in Parker.
    Last projection: Mike Moustakas

    8. Colorado Rockies: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
    It's sounding more likely the Rockies will go with a college arm with this pick, and while Detwiler or Moskos are both on their list, they're both gone in this scenario. No one has helped themselves more lately than Schmidt, the consummate lefty who tossed a shutout in conference tournament play and was stellar again in Regional action.
    Last projection: Daniel Moskos

    Draft 2007 | Complete Coverage 9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
    With the Diamondbacks signing Scherzer, things could go in either direction. They could decide they didn't want to spend top dollar for a player after shelling out a lot of dough on their first round pick from last year. Or they could decide they've been through it once, why not try it again. They do like Moustakas' bat, so if they decide they won't let Boras get in the way, that's the direction they'll head in.
    Last projection: Phillipe Aumont

    10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
    Wieters is becoming the most difficult player to place in this first-round projection because of signability and some performance-related issues. Still, he's got an excellent track record and is a switch-hitting catcher with pop. If he starts to slide, a number of teams will have to pause and seriously considering taking him. The Giants could very well be that team. There's been a lot of noise that they'd take Beau Mills, but some of that might just be because they've had success in drafting players from Lewis-Clark State. They have some interest in Casey Weathers, so if they went in that direction, Wieters could continue to slide.
    Last projection: Nick Schmidt

    11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
    It's been generally believed, almost from the get-go, that the Mariners would be looking for an arm at No. 11. A lot of scouts like the arm of Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers. A senior, he'd certainly be an easy sign. Too high in the draft for a reliever to go? Perhaps, but with the M's playing decent ball, the idea of drafting someone who could help the big club out in a hurry might be enticing. Weathers is the best of the college closer lot right now and could join Brandon Morrow in Seattle's bullpen very quickly.
    Last projection: Weathers

    12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, CF, University of Tennessee
    The Marlins are truly a "best player available" kind of team, so they could go in any of a number of directions. They'd have an interest in Schmidt or Parker should one of them be there. Ditto for Casey Weathers. If they still wanted a high school arm, Josh Smoker is a possibility. They'd never draft for need, and drafting Borbon would make sense because they need a center fielder. If they take him, it would be because they felt he was a fit for this spot in the first round.
    Last projection: Jarrod Parker

    13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
    Staying the same with this projection as the Indians have been on the Texas prep standout for some time. Think Adam Miller, redux.
    Last projection: Beavan

    14. Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
    Atlanta does like to draft local kids, and they like the high school players, so it could come down to Heyward or Smoker, depending on what direction they wanted to go in. Florida's Michael Main or Matt Harvey from Connecticut is also a possibility here as they could be looking power arm, but in the end, the toolsy Georgia outfielder might be too much for them to pass up.
    Last projection: Heyward

    15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
    This one falls under the category of hearing a player's name so much with one team that it's both hard to ignore and hard to not wonder if it's true. There was some talk the Reds would also be interested in Aumont should he slide here, but all of the buzz is that they've been on Houston-area infielder Ahrens all along. He plays shortstop in high school and isn't bad there, but the consensus is that he should move to third where he should profile better both offensively and defensively.
    Last projection: Ahrens

    16. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
    With two picks in the first round, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Jays go with a high-schooler with either pick. We'll give it to them here with Dominguez. If he's gone, Devin Mesoraco could be the choice.
    Last projection: Dominguez

    17. Texas Rangers: Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (Conn.)
    The Rangers would love for Beavan to be around at No. 17 so they could take the local power pitcher. But if the Indians do take him, they will have to look elsewhere. Harvey, once thought of as possibly the top high school arm in the country, has dropped some, but not based solely on talent. He could drop this far because of perceived signability concerns (Boras is his advisor), but the Rangers haven't shied away from Boras guys in the past.
    Last projection: Harvey

    18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
    There was a temptation to put a Boras guy here because the Cardinals can do that, but it didn't make sense to force the issue, especially with Andrew Brackman missing regional play with some elbow trouble. Instead, I'll go with a "safe" pick in Arrieta. He's had an up-and-down season, but he turned in a dandy at UNLV in conference tournament play and pitched well in Regional action in the scouts' last look at him. The Cardinals have enjoyed the Lone Star State in recent drafts and even took a Horned Frog pitcher last year, Brad Furnish.
    Last projection: Arrieta

    19. Philadelphia Phillies: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
    With his name being mentioned all over the first half of the first round, there's a chance the prep catcher won't be here for the Phillies. But in this current projection, he will be, and it'd be unlikely he'd slip any further than this spot. He's a very good athlete who some think is the best all-around catching package in the draft this year.
    Last projection: Julio Borbon

    20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
    If one of the high school bats -- Ahrens or Dominguez -- slipped to the Dodgers here, they'd probably go that route. But assuming both are gone, as we are in this projection, we'll stick with the power left-handed arm. Bumgarner finished off his season by being lights out in his team's state final, which is just icing on the cake.
    Last projection: Bumgarner

    21. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
    Outside of Wieters, Mills is one of tougher players to place. His name is being mentioned all over the first round as he put up absolutely ridiculous numbers in helping Lewis-Clark State to the NAIA Championship. There is some concern about his defensive ability, which might limit him to an AL team. There's a good chance he goes before here, but the Blue Jays are a good candidate to take him with one of their two picks.
    Last projection: Devin Mesoraco

    22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
    Here's the second college guy and one from the team's own backyard. Poreda isn't the typical college lefty and doesn't fit the "pitchability" mold. That being said, he can dial it up to 95 mph and commands the fastball pretty well. His secondary stuff definitely lags behind, and he gave some scouts the sense that he wasn't used to being a dominant pitcher. But those are all things that can be taught and the Giants would be very happy to be his mentor.
    Last projection: Poreda

    23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
    In all likelihood, the Padres will end up going with a college arm here. In a perfect world, someone like Schmidt would fall to them, but that's not a scenario that's probable at this point. Simmons has perhaps the best fastball command in the draft and that alone should get him to the big leagues fairly quickly. If the team that takes him can help him develop his secondary stuff, he could evolve into a pretty steady big league starter. The previous projection, Nick Noonan, would be a consideration in the sandwich round for the Padres.
    Last projection: Noonan

    24. Texas Rangers: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
    Before Brackman went down with his elbow issue, he seemed like a possibility here. Now, however, it seems like he could slip out of the first round completely. According to this projection, Main is one of, if not the best, power arms from the prep ranks still on the board. He's not from Texas like Beavan is, but the Rangers won't mind getting his mid-to-upper 90s fastball this late in the round.
    Last projection: Brackman

    25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
    The Sox might have the pick of a few high school arms after taking two college pitchers the last couple of years. If Main were still around, he would be a possibility, as would Josh Smoker as a lefty. At the same time, both could be gone. Even with them around, they might want to take Withrow, the projectable right-hander out of Texas. His dad played pro ball -- in the White Sox organization, no less -- and clearly has taught his son well.
    Last projection: Withrow

    26. Oakland A's: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
    There are at least a dozen names the A's are likely considering for this spot and it could depend on who filters down from above. If a Beau Mills, the projection here last time, somehow managed to drop, the A's would have obvious interest. It does seem that of the names they are considering, they are more interested in a bat than an arm, possibly from the college level. Doolittle, a two-way player at Virginia, profiles as a guy who should get to the bigs fairly quickly and hit for average. There's not much power there now, but there's the hope that more could develop once he gives up pitching. There's also the possibility that Doolittle won't be available here, with intriguing whispers coming out about him going much higher than anticipated, perhaps even sneaking into the top 10.
    Last projection: Mills

    27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
    Several teams have been following the Arizona prep right-hander and he could conceivably go anywhere in the latter third of the first round into the sandwich round. While some scouts were concerned with Alderson's unorthodox delivery, he's got as good command as anyone in the high school ranks. He walks almost no one and he's got some pretty good stuff to go along with it. If the Tigers are heavy on high school arms, and a Main or Smoker are still here, that could push Alderson down some, but they've been on him all year. If they decide they want to go with a bat, they have some high school infield options in Peter Kozma and Noonan.
    Last projection: Alderson

    28. Minnesota Twins: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
    The Twins have certainly taken their fair share of high school middle infielders, but there is that old adage that you can never have too much depth up the middle. Kozma came on strong near the end. While he's not impressively "toolsy," he does just about everything pretty well and, unlike many high school middle infielders, should be able to stay at short long-term. He handles the bat well and has some pop at the plate to boot. His best tool might be his makeup, which might put him over the top into the first round.
    Last projection: Kozma

    29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
    With a host of teams looking at high school arms, it might be a reach to think Smoker will last this far down. But if he does, the Giants won't hesitate to take him. There's no reason to suggest a slide for Smoker, who I once had at No. 10, but sometimes the high school players drop and college players move up as we get closer to crunch time.
    Last projection: Smoker

    30. New York Yankees: Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS (Miss.)
    The Yankees are in a position where they can just wait and see who might fall into their lap. If any of the bigger names slide this far because of perceived signability concerns, or if their slide forces some others down the totem pole, those players could be options for New York. Brackman would be a gutsy call here, if the Yankees are willing to take the chance or try to get some kind of deal depending on the severity of the elbow injury. The last projection, Matt LaPorta, is still in the conversation because he would fill a pressing need at first base. A college catcher, such as J.P. Arencibia, might be considered as a fast-to-the-bigs replacement for Jorge Posada (assuming health). With all that being said, though, the Yankees are the kind of team that can afford to be patient, so if they see a high-risk, high-reward kind of player, they can take him. Fairley is extremely raw, but the tools are undeniable. The Yankees can, and will, be patient in letting those tools develop into performance.
    Last projection: Matt LaPorta

  10. #24
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Could the Reds grab LaPorta at #34? If they got Ahrens/Dominguez and Laporta I would be stoked.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  11. #25
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    It's doubtful but possible. I would be stoked, too.

  12. #26
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Could the Reds grab LaPorta at #34? If they got Ahrens/Dominguez and Laporta I would be stoked.
    Would be nice, but LaPorta is a college senior so you would hope for him to be ready in 3 years and they already have Votto. And I know that I'm in the minority when it comes to thinking ahead like that. But is the Reds farm system set up enough to be able to start picking up guys early who play the same position as one of the best prospects in baseball? Especially a college guy, who (if all falls right) plays the same position as Votto?

    I know the draft is a crapshoot, but I'd rather take my chances with another position. Best case scenario, if they drafted LaPorta, would be that they would have to deal one of them. I'd rather have a best case where you keep both. But that's just me.

  13. #27
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    That's a good point, but I think Laporta could be a good replacement for Dunn at DH.

  14. #28
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    If either of them is as good as advertised, a trade for another quality player could be pulled off. The Reds currently have that nice looking kid Juan Francisco at Dayton, and that doesn't seem to stop the talk about another third baseman.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  15. #29
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That's a good point, but I think Laporta could be a good replacement for Dunn at DH.
    Did we move to the AL?

    IMO Laporta is going to be gone in the late 1st.
    Go Gators!

  16. #30
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    Re: Keith Law mock draft

    If LaPorta falls that far, I'd definitely take him. The Reds need impact players anywhere they can get them, even if they end up being used as trading chips.
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