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View Poll Results: Will he be a bust?

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  • Yes

    71 44.38%
  • No

    89 55.63%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #136
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Mar 2002
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I see where you're coming from with your first point, but I disagree about his plate discipline being a strength. (Being able to take a walk doesn't mean you have good plate discipline, in my opinion--it just means you have patience. That's a great thing to have in a leadoff hitter.)
    Maybe that's the gap, then. I consider patience to be a key component of good plate discipline rather than an alternate skill set. And I'd suggest that if the Reds viewed Stubbs as only a "leadoff hitter", then they certainly didn't maximize the value of that selection. Leadoff hitters are only leadoff hitters because they generally lack a key skill (high IsoP) that would allow them to be more productive. Rickey Henderson in his prime is excepted, of course.

    What are you trying to do when you say, "Maybe it's just that Stubbs' high K rate is caused by Drew Stubbs?" Are you trying to be difficult? Not only have I pointed out that we all agree that Drew Stubbs will always strike out a lot, but I mentioned that, as at least one coach has been quoted saying, they have made efforts to mess with Stubbs' swing, which might help explain why Stubbs' strikeout rate is so high.
    I'm an Occam's razor kind of guy, and that does lead me to be a bit difficult when faced with alternative explanations for performance issues. While I might concede that some of Stubbs' performance issues may be the result of either injury or swing "tweaking", Stubbs really hasn't done anything much different than his final season in college with either his BB or K rate. His BB rate is down slightly and his K rate is up slightly. His IsoD is up 10 points from his last college season. I do care how much he Walks. I don't care how much he strikes out. But here's the bad...

    Drew Stubbs' IsoP is down 101 points. His BABIP is .351. When you see a substandard IsoP- especially for a 22-year old in low-A ball- coupled with a high BABIP, that's a big red flag. Adjust that for better defenses faced as he moves up the ladder and you might just end up with a too-long learning curve and an awful line. And if his current BABIP isn't defense-aided, that means it's most likely speed-aided. And if his BABIP is enchanced by speed then we can pretty much throw out turf toe as being the issue for pretty much anything related to Drew Stubbs' performance.

    So maybe my comment about Drew Stubbs performance being caused by Drew Stubbs wasn't me being difficult? Maybe it was more about taking an objective, non-emotional look at a prospect we'd likely all be questioning should he be announced as a trade target if he were with another organization at this point in his career?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #137
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Dec 2005
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    As of today, Stubbs July line is:
    .338/.477/.618 for an OPS of 1.094

    In fact, if we get rid of June, Stubbs 2007 line would be:
    .290/.396/.469 for an OPS of .865

    I still think Stubbs will turn out to be a good pick...wishful thinking? Maybe so...but still.

    I also think the turf toe injury could be a lot of his problems...and we may not know until next season, assuming he is healthy.
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 07-24-2007 at 01:15 AM.
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