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View Poll Results: Will he be a bust?

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  • Yes

    71 44.38%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #76
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    In the user agreement, they should insert a clause that says you may not mention Drew Stubbs and Tim Lincecum in the same thread. Lincecum is the second coming of Christ. We get it. This wasn't a Lincecum poll, though. It was a Stubbs poll.

    In 1985, the Reds drafted Barry Larkin, but look at what a waste of a draft pick was. I mean, the Reds could have had a guy with over 700 homeruns in Barry Bonds. Wow!

    Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Nothing is guaranteed. For all you know, Lincecum's arm could fall off and Stubbs could be a future Hall of Famer. I know it's interesting to talk about 'could've been's, but there's no point when it's so early into their careers. Would I rather have Lincecum on the Reds right now? Absolutely. In five years? I have no idea.

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  3. #77
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Jay Bruce much?

  4. #78
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Steel, I don't think one person will disagree with you regarding Lincecum.

    I'm probably Stubbs' biggest supporter on the board, and I badly wanted Lincecum. He was a slam dunk pick in my mind.

    Stubbs has a long way to go, but I like his game and I think he will contribute even if he's not, nor will he ever be Tim Lincecum.
    I would disagree actually, Lincecum's career could take a downward spiral and quick while Stubbs stilll may make it, it's yet too early to tell. I liked Lincecum as well and hoped the Reds would take that risk as opposed to this one (Stubbs). However after re-examining the issue Stubbs has a flaw that could perhaps be corrected while Lincecum's flaw cannot be corrected, thus he was passed over by several teams.

    The flaw(s) one of which was his stature (5'11 and 160 lbs.) and the question mark if a guy that small can actually pitch anywhere near acceptable to big league standards for an extended period of time. There are exceptions to this rule (Oswalt 6 ft., Pedro 5'11) but not many who make it for long. If he does then his horn can be tooted, but odds are still he won't make a long career out of it.

    Stubbs on the other hand is a guy that likely has bat control issues (which can be corrected in more than 1 different way) not unlike another infamous Texan who shall remain nameless just to a more profound extent. Believe it or not it may just take the right instructor to both detect and fix the problem.

    There was the word that his bat speed wasn't up to par from an alledged scout. That may be lord knows I am no scout, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night and I know a scout or 2 also. But if that was the case how does a guy with poor bat speed pull 49.3 % of everything he contacts? No I don't think it's his bat speed as I too have seen him live and in person and his problem appears to be of the bat control variety.

    But the bottom line regardless of how either do is why continue to use Lincecum as a comparison for what might have been, when Lincecum has yet to disprove his risks? Sure he has "made it" and that in the end may make him the better bet in retrospect but if it's only a short stay and Stubbs never makes it then his risk was only slightly less rewarding. And perhaps Stubbs hanging around in the minor's helps boost attendance for a few years as a "draw" and in the end there was virtually no difference whatsoever call it a wash.

    FWIW, Todd Frazier may also have similar issues in the short term. He has a couple "tendencies" which might make him inconsistent for awhile, that doesn't make him a bad pick it likely is moreso an indictment on the coaching than anything.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  5. #79
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    I like what this guy brings to the table. Right now. At the MLB level:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...playerId=28705

    For those who don't care to click on the link, that's Tim Lincecum; he of the 4.37 ERA, 10.00 K/9 rate and .645 OPSA. As a rookie. In the year after he was drafted.

    Now, Drew Stubbs isn't any better or worse because the Reds stupidly decided to select him rather than Lincecum, but that mistake may haunt the Reds for years. And Stubbs has, apparently, been injured. Turf toe is a serious issue. In most cases, it's nearly incapacitating for a guy who relies on a speed game. That being said, I'd think that a guy who's demonstrably affected by turf toe wouldn't be able to attempt 32 Stolen Bases thusfar in 2007 or appear to "glide" in Center Field.

    But hey, Stubbs is now up to a .757 OPS as a 22-year old in low-A ball after a hot streak after posting a .768 OPS in Rookie ball in a major hitters league as a 21 year old. At that pace, we may see Stubbs ready for a fourth outfielder slot right around 2011.


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  6. #80
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I would disagree actually, Lincecum's career could take a downward spiral and quick while Stubbs stilll may make it, it's yet too early to tell. I liked Lincecum as well and hoped the Reds would take that risk as opposed to this one (Stubbs). However after re-examining the issue Stubbs has a flaw that could perhaps be corrected while Lincecum's flaw cannot be corrected, thus he was passed over by several teams.

    The flaw(s) one of which was his stature (5'11 and 160 lbs.) and the question mark if a guy that small can actually pitch anywhere near acceptable to big league standards for an extended period of time. There are exceptions to this rule (Oswalt 6 ft., Pedro 5'11) but not many who make it for long. If he does then his horn can be tooted, but odds are still he won't make a long career out of it.

    Stubbs on the other hand is a guy that likely has bat control issues (which can be corrected in more than 1 different way) not unlike another infamous Texan who shall remain nameless just to a more profound extent. Believe it or not it may just take the right instructor to both detect and fix the problem.

    There was the word that his bat speed wasn't up to par from an alledged scout. That may be lord knows I am no scout, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night and I know a scout or 2 also. But if that was the case how does a guy with poor bat speed pull 49.3 % of everything he contacts? No I don't think it's his bat speed as I too have seen him live and in person and his problem appears to be of the bat control variety.

    But the bottom line regardless of how either do is why continue to use Lincecum as a comparison for what might have been, when Lincecum has yet to disprove his risks? Sure he has "made it" and that in the end may make him the better bet in retrospect but if it's only a short stay and Stubbs never makes it then his risk was only slightly less rewarding. And perhaps Stubbs hanging around in the minor's helps boost attendance for a few years as a "draw" and in the end there was virtually no difference whatsoever call it a wash.

    FWIW, Todd Frazier may also have similar issues in the short term. He has a couple "tendencies" which might make him inconsistent for awhile, that doesn't make him a bad pick it likely is moreso an indictment on the coaching than anything.
    If Tim Lincecum produces just 3 seasons of .650 OPSA, 33 starts, then he'll be worth exponentially more than what Stubbs would bring to the Reds for 6 years as even a pretty good MLB centerfielder.

    A starter who does what Lincecum can do can't be overvalued because he represents the single most important cog of a ballclub.

  7. #81
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Jay Bruce much?
    I always though Jay Bruce would be replacing Ken Griffey Jr. in right field. I suppose he could play left, though.

  8. #82
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    If Tim Lincecum produces just 3 seasons of .650 OPSA, 33 starts, then he'll be worth exponentially more than what Stubbs would bring to the Reds for 6 years as even a pretty good MLB centerfielder.

    A starter who does what Lincecum can do can't be overvalued because he represents the single most important cog of a ballclub.
    That may very well be true, although I don't know how. But that is 2 and 1/2 seasons away yet. If he lasts that long with that kind of production (currently a .648 OPSA w/a .269 BABIPA) then you may have a point. My point isn't whether he will or won't produce (that's another debate), it's can he last? Some will say yes but most would say let's wait and see, I am in that group. And if he can't last then the right choice was made IMO, almost regardless of whether or not Stubbs ever develops.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  9. #83
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    In the user agreement, they should insert a clause that says you may not mention Drew Stubbs and Tim Lincecum in the same thread. Lincecum is the second coming of Christ. We get it. This wasn't a Lincecum poll, though. It was a Stubbs poll.

    In 1985, the Reds drafted Barry Larkin, but look at what a waste of a draft pick was. I mean, the Reds could have had a guy with over 700 homeruns in Barry Bonds. Wow!

    Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Nothing is guaranteed. For all you know, Lincecum's arm could fall off and Stubbs could be a future Hall of Famer. I know it's interesting to talk about 'could've been's, but there's no point when it's so early into their careers. Would I rather have Lincecum on the Reds right now? Absolutely. In five years? I have no idea.
    Coach Ditka vs. Lincecum, who would win?

  10. #84
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    And if he <Lincecum> can't last then the right choice was made IMO, almost regardless of whether or not Stubbs ever develops.
    If Drew Stubbs doesn't develop, then it'll mean that Tim Lincecum- if his arm falls of today- will have been responsible for infinitely more production at the MLB level. Minor league attendance "boost" be darned. Ditto for height. Stubbs may look great in jeans, but Lincecum looks better right now on a major league baseball field.

    And my apologies for throwing Lincecum's name out there. But the last thing I want as a Reds fan is to be having an "if he hits" discussion about 22-year old Drew Stubbs over a year after he was selected with the #8 pick in the entire stinkin' draft. The day he was drafted, there were concerns about his bat. He's done nothing since then to show us that those concerns weren't real then and aren't real now.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  11. #85
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The day he was drafted, there were concerns about his bat. He's done nothing since then to show us that those concerns weren't real then and aren't real now.
    ... but since he is a Reds prospect I will ignore the evidence and remain optimistic.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #86
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    "if he hits" is a conversation we've had on this board for years. I don't think I've ever seen one of these guys learn to hit. I remember the "if he hits" discussion about Gookie dawkins while many on the board thought he was untouchable in a trade.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  13. #87
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Taking a slightly different approach, can anybody find a reasonable minor league comp for Stubbs who ended up with a successful (or any) major league career?

    The common comp for Stubbs at the major league level, Mike Cameron, hit .248/.343/.391 with 100 SO in 468 AB in A+ ball at age 21. At age 22, he got promoted and hit .249/.355/ .429 in AA in 350 AB. He got a cup of coffee and was horrible. At age 23, he hit .300/.402/.600. At age 24 he started in AAA, put up a .911 OPS and was promoted to the majors to stay.

    What's interesting to me is that Cameron didn't come out of a top college program. Rather he was drafte in the 18th round out of HS. He couldn't hit a lick in Rookie ball (.568 OPS). The next year he hit decently in the NY Penn League and then had a weak year in Low A (.652 OPS). He repeated A ball the next year at age 20 and stunk up the joint to the tune of .238/.292/.297. He got promoted the next year, which is where the previous paragraph picks up.

    To me, I find it extremely interesting that the Sox continued to promote Cameron despite his struggles. What did they see in him? Unlike Stubbs, he wasn't a top pick with great expectations. They didn't see him succeed against quality competition.

    So what gives? Is there something we're potentially missing with Stubbs? Is there something Cameron had going for him that Stubbs doesn't? Did the CWS instruction to a young Cameron make a difference over Texas Longhorn instruction to Stubbs? Are there are other guys, like Cameron, who followed the path down which Stubbs seems to be headed?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #88
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    RMR,
    M2 has done some searching and hasn't found anyone like Stubbs (major college, top round pick, struggled then turned it around). Granted he also is unsure if any of those guys were hurt like Stubbs has been for the better part of his entire stay with the Reds, so the comparisons only hold so much water.

    Personally, I could care less about what any other prospect is doing in terms of how it relates to what Drew is doing down in Dayton. As long as he is making improvements with his game, then I don't care one ounce about what tiny Tim is doing in SF unless he is pitching against the Reds. He has nothing to do with Drew.

    Give Drew some time, see what happens.

  15. #89
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    ... but since he is a Reds prospect I will ignore the evidence and remain optimistic.
    Apparently.

    Oh, and Lincecum just throttled the Brewers today to the tune of scattering 4 hits over 8 Innings of 8 K shutout ball today. But the Red don't need any of that because Lincecum is an inch shorter than Mario Soto while Drew Stubbs is nursing a serious foot injury that affects his hitting but not his running.

    Sometimes I feel like Rod Serling is speaking to me through Redszone.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  16. #90
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Taking a slightly different approach, can anybody find a reasonable minor league comp for Stubbs who ended up with a successful (or any) major league career?

    The common comp for Stubbs at the major league level, Mike Cameron, hit .248/.343/.391 with 100 SO in 468 AB in A+ ball at age 21. At age 22, he got promoted and hit .249/.355/ .429 in AA in 350 AB. He got a cup of coffee and was horrible. At age 23, he hit .300/.402/.600. At age 24 he started in AAA, put up a .911 OPS and was promoted to the majors to stay.

    What's interesting to me is that Cameron didn't come out of a top college program. Rather he was drafte in the 18th round out of HS. He couldn't hit a lick in Rookie ball (.568 OPS). The next year he hit decently in the NY Penn League and then had a weak year in Low A (.652 OPS). He repeated A ball the next year at age 20 and stunk up the joint to the tune of .238/.292/.297. He got promoted the next year, which is where the previous paragraph picks up.

    To me, I find it extremely interesting that the Sox continued to promote Cameron despite his struggles. What did they see in him? Unlike Stubbs, he wasn't a top pick with great expectations. They didn't see him succeed against quality competition.

    So what gives? Is there something we're potentially missing with Stubbs? Is there something Cameron had going for him that Stubbs doesn't? Did the CWS instruction to a young Cameron make a difference over Texas Longhorn instruction to Stubbs? Are there are other guys, like Cameron, who followed the path down which Stubbs seems to be headed?
    I think Cameron was considered a five tool guy right out of highschool and was generally groomed because of what was thought to be a very high ceiling (a scout's dream that in fact came true as it turns out). He showed progression though low A ball and basically stunk up the midwest league. A great personality and stellar work ethic couple with the *promise* of those eye popping tools got him promoted again and a spike in his walk rate in high A ball was all it took to cement his rise.

    Just for S&G, at age 22, Stubbs is OPSing .719 in A ball (albeit the midwest league is a pitcher's league) while Cameron was OPSing .784 in the Southern (another pitcher's league).

    Interestingly both guys struck out at similar rates and both drew walks at similar rates. At age 23, Cameron was again in AA (Southern) doing this: .300/.402/.600. Will that be Stubbs?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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