MLB draft this Wednesday -- who should the Reds take?

[Blitz Dorsey]

Sorry if this has been posted already. I looked and didn't see anything.

Due to our better-than-expected 2006 season, we are picking 15th in the draft this year. Hopefully Krivsky doesn't make a bad pick like last year with Drew Stubbs. For as terrible as Dan O'Brien was overall, he was pretty good with the draft getting us Bailey in '04 and then Bruce in '05.

The Reds also have two sandwich picks (between the first and second rounds) for losing Aurilia and Schoenweis. Yes, I was as shocked as you. We actually get a sandwich pick for losing Schoenweis??? Yes we do.

With our first four picks (first round, 2 sandwich, second round) I would take three pitchers and a catcher. Or maybe two pitchers, a catcher and a power-hitting right-handed hitter -- either a third baseman or outfielder.

[M2]

If Matt Wieters drops and the Reds don't take him, then I don't want to hear word one from the organization's mouth about how they're doing business differently.

If Wieters isn't there, I'd have my eye on guys like Matt Dominguez, Jarrod Parker, Nick Schmidt and Matt LaPorta.

[jmcclain19]

Just picking nits - the title of your thread is misleading - the draft starts on Thursday.

[dougdirt]

Sorry if this has been posted already. I looked and didn't see anything.

Due to our better-than-expected 2006 season, we are picking 15th in the draft this year. Hopefully Krivsky doesn't make a bad pick like last year with Drew Stubbs. For as terrible as Dan O'Brien was overall, he was pretty good with the draft getting us Bailey in '04 and then Bruce in '05.

The Reds also have two sandwich picks (between the first and second rounds) for losing Aurilia and Schoenweis. Yes, I was as shocked as you. We actually get a sandwich pick for losing Schoenweis??? Yes we do.

With our first four picks (first round, 2 sandwich, second round) I would take three pitchers and a catcher. Or maybe two pitchers, a catcher and a power-hitting right-handed hitter -- either a third baseman or outfielder.

Awful early to be giving up on Drew Stubbs don't you think?

[Blitz Dorsey]

Awful early to be giving up on Drew Stubbs don't you think?

I figured someone would say that. But please don't think my opinion is just based on this year which includes less than 200 ABs at Dayton. I thought it was a bad pick last year when they made it and his performance in the minor leagues since then (including in rookie ball last year) has just backed it up. Stubbs strikes out too much and we should have taken the best pitcher available there.

I am not giving up on Stubbs, just pointing out it was a bad pick for that early in the draft. Especially with our pitching needs. Why take an OF there when you just took an OF the previous year with your first round pick and you need pitching as much or more than anything. I just don't get why Krivsky fell in love with Drew Stubbs. He is one of these "5 tool" players who isn't great at anything. He is supposed to be a power hitter, but he has 6 HRs this year and didn't hit many last year either. He doesn't hit for average. He is good but not great defensively. He's fast, but not a guy who is going to steal 30 bags in the majors. He has a strong arm, but nothing too special.

[dougdirt]

I figured someone would say that. But please don't think my opinion is just based on this year which includes less than 200 ABs at Dayton. I thought it was a bad pick last year when they made it and his performance in the minor leagues since then (including in rookie ball last year) has just backed it up. Stubbs strikes out too much and we should have taken the best pitcher available there.

I am not giving up on Stubbs, just pointing out it was a bad pick for that early in the draft. Especially with our pitching needs. Why take an OF there when you just took an OF the previous year with your first round pick and you need pitching as much or more than anything. I just don't get why Krivsky fell in love with Drew Stubbs. He is one of these "5 tool" players who isn't great at anything. He is supposed to be a power hitter, but he has 6 HRs this year and didn't hit many last year either. He doesn't hit for average. He is good but not great defensively. He's fast, but not a guy who is going to steal 30 bags in the majors. He has a strong arm, but nothing too special.

Anytime that you draft for need in baseball you are setting yourself up to fail. The Reds have so much more pitching talent in the minors than they do hitting talent its not even really that close. You don't just draft the best pitching available if you think that the guy you are going to take would be the best pro one day. Did I like the Drew Stubbs pick at the time? Absolutely not. I wanted Billy Rowell like a fat kid wants an extra slice of birthday cake, but it didnt happen.
As for Stubbs not being great at anything.... I am not sure how much defense you have seen him play, but its great. The guy is like a thouroughbred out in CF. He just glides effortlessly to the ball like he isnt even trying. As for his bat, it has some questions, but when people try to compare it to BJ Szymanski I just laugh. They both strike out a lot, but thats about where it ends with the comparisons. Drew had a bad April, but in May he was very solid with a .403 OBP and a .447 SLG and he even improved the rate at which he struck out.
If he were a corner infield or outfield guy, I might be a little worried about his bat, but since he isnt and he plays one of the lightest hitting positions on the field, he truly needs to OPS just .750 and play good defense to be a very valuable player.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Anytime that you draft for need in baseball you are setting yourself up to fail. The Reds have so much more pitching talent in the minors than they do hitting talent its not even really that close. You don't just draft the best pitching available if you think that the guy you are going to take would be the best pro one day. Did I like the Drew Stubbs pick at the time? Absolutely not. I wanted Billy Rowell like a fat kid wants an extra slice of birthday cake, but it didnt happen.
As for Stubbs not being great at anything.... I am not sure how much defense you have seen him play, but its great. The guy is like a thouroughbred out in CF. He just glides effortlessly to the ball like he isnt even trying. As for his bat, it has some questions, but when people try to compare it to BJ Szymanski I just laugh. They both strike out a lot, but thats about where it ends with the comparisons. Drew had a bad April, but in May he was very solid with a .403 OBP and a .447 SLG and he even improved the rate at which he struck out.
If he were a corner infield or outfield guy, I might be a little worried about his bat, but since he isnt and he plays one of the lightest hitting positions on the field, he truly needs to OPS just .750 and play good defense to be a very valuable player.

Well, you make some good points and even admit that you weren't a fan of the Reds taking Stubbs last year. I hope you are right that he is a great defensive player and not just good. Because there is no doubt in my mind he will struggle offensively in the majors. You don't draft defense and speed that early in the draft IMO. Just a huge blunder by Krivsky. I agree you can't "draft for need" but when Drew Stubbs is the best position player on the board, I'm taking the best pitcher available. That might sound simplistic, but no way was Stubbs worthy of a top 10 first round selection. He would have been a good pick for someone in the sandwich round, but I think we reached for him far too much (not saying he would have lasted until the sandwich round -- someone would have taken a chance on him in the first round, I'm just not happy it was us so early).

EDIT -- And I would posit that the Reds "drafted for need" when they took Stubbs. They wanted a right-handed hitting OF since all of their power hitting OFs are left handed. That just made the pick even worse IMO.

[Mario-Rijo]

Obviously as has been mentioned quite a bit, if Weiters is there you take him. Unless and I mean you better be absolutely right about someone else under that scenario, you have a guy who you think's ceiling is much higher and he has extremely high shot at reaching that ceiling.

Otherwise if Weiters isn't available, I gotta go Dominguez if he is there.

[Eric_Davis]

I'm not trying to be funny, but I seriously think they should take the player with the highest potential regardless of age or experience (highschool or college), but he must not have injuries in his past (knee, arm, or shoulder surgeries). I don't care what position he is.

[Danny Serafini]

^^I was just about to post the same thing. Best player available, period. There's no reason to draft for need when you don't know what your needs will be 3-4 years from now. I really don't care who they take as long as it's the best player on the board.

[M2]

^^I was just about to post the same thing. Best player available, period. There's no reason to draft for need when you don't know what your needs will be 3-4 years from now. I really don't care who they take as long as it's the best player on the board.

Though it's sounds bizarre, it's amazing how many teams talk themselves out of the best player available for financial or self-inflicted BS reasons. That's why I bring up Wieters. If he's there at 15, he's without question the best player available.

[Patrick Bateman]

Though it's sounds bizarre, it's amazing how many teams talk themselves out of the best player available for financial or self-inflicted BS reasons. That's why I bring up Wieters. If he's there at 15, he's without question the best player available.

Agreed. Not to mention he is exactly what this organization needs. If they pass on Wieters, there will be no good defense possible from the front office.

[Aronchis]

You can't talk yourself out of anything if you don't have the money. It is something you have to accept. I think Steve1492 said it best, low revenue teams are called that for a reason.

[Patrick Bateman]

You can't talk yourself out of anything if you don't have the money. It is something you have to accept. I think Steve1492 said it best, low revenue teams are called that for a reason.

The difference beteen Wieters and whatever other option is monumental and well worth the money in this case. If the Reds don't have the money because of the likes of Cormier, Saarloos, and Stanton, then it's not because of financial reasons, but intelligence issues.

[NorrisHopper30]

I will also go with best player available, I believe that's the way to go in baseball.