MLB draft this Wednesday -- who should the Reds take?

[Patrick Bateman]

Is he a Boras-Baby?

Yep. That's why some people see him dropping down towards the Reds.

[BoydsOfSummer]

Yep. That's why some people see him dropping down towards the Reds.

Yeah, okay, that explains things.

[Aronchis]

My point is, that when there are potential difference makers in the draft that generally you can't afford, it is better to spend that extra money in the draft, rather than filling out the bottom of your roster.

If the plan was Stanton/Cormier/Saarloos is more valuable than the frm system, then the Reds have a massive hole in their plan.

Then complain to the FO you want lower payrolls or scouting budgets and higher draft budgets. Remember, we are talking about untested talent. A guy like Wieters may be nothing more than hype.

Low revenue teams fans like the Brewers and Reds have complained about "lack of budgets" for developmental signings for years now. Yet, the Reds after Marge got suspended moved from dead last in money for scouting in 1996 up to middle of the league by 2003 in money allocated to scouting. But the signing bonus's exploded during that period as well.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Awful early to be giving up on Drew Stubbs don't you think?

I figured someone would say that. But please don't think my opinion is just based on this year which includes less than 200 ABs at Dayton. I thought it was a bad pick last year when they made it and his performance in the minor leagues since then (including in rookie ball last year) has just backed it up. Stubbs strikes out too much and we should have taken the best pitcher available there.

I am not giving up on Stubbs, just pointing out it was a bad pick for that early in the draft. Especially with our pitching needs. Why take an OF there when you just took an OF the previous year with your first round pick and you need pitching as much or more than anything. I just don't get why Krivsky fell in love with Drew Stubbs. He is one of these "5 tool" players who isn't great at anything. He is supposed to be a power hitter, but he has 6 HRs this year and didn't hit many last year either. He doesn't hit for average. He is good but not great defensively. He's fast, but not a guy who is going to steal 30 bags in the majors. He has a strong arm, but nothing too special.

[Patrick Bateman]

Then complain to the FO you want lower payrolls or scouting budgets and higher draft budgets. Remember, we are talking about untested talent. A guy like Wieters may be nothing more than hype.

Any prospect could just be hype, but Wieters is a far better prospect than whatever falls to us. And it's not close. I'm not saying the Reds need to generally have a higher budget, but they should be willing to pay a little extra to get a massively better prospect if it means trimming some extra money off the next year's payroll.

If the Reds aren't willing to spend the budget on a talent upgrade, then there is a major problem. Krivsky has said he wants to focus on building a good farm system, so here's a chance. If he wants to build the farm system, then he needs to be willing to spend the money neccessary in the draft. If they aren't willing to go after a guy like Wieters, then they are already 2 steps backwards in the developmental system. Again, if Krivsky can't see that a major prospect upgrade is worth more than some bullpen stiffs, then the Reds are basically hopeless.

[Aronchis]

Any prospect could just be hype, but Wieters is a far better prospect than whatever falls to us. And it's not close. I'm not saying the Reds need to generally have a higher budget, but they should be willing to pay a little extra to get a massively better prospect if it means trimming some extra money off the next year's payroll.

If the Reds aren't willing to spend the budget on a talent upgrade, then there is a major problem. Krivsky has said he wants to focus on building a good farm system, so here's a chance. If he wants to build the farm system, then he needs to be willing to spend the money neccessary in the draft. If they aren't willing to go after a guy like Wieters, then they are already 2 steps backwards in the developmental system. Again, if Krivsky can't see that a major prospect upgrade is worth more than some bullpen stiffs, then the Reds are basically hopeless.

Krivsky doesn't set the budget all by himself, especially if the owner(Cast) wants to win now. Krivsky may feel spreading that money around on players he can get rid of easier than signing a player to a 9 mill deal for 3 years to deal with overtime since the owner wanted it spent on payroll(for example). We don't know how this money came into being spent and how it was planned, no one man is to blame, but a organizational wide failing.

I have been complaining for years the Reds should flush millions into draft budgets over payroll concerns, even if it means losing some player from the MLB roster intially. I complained after the whole "Griffey surges revenue" idea bombed in 2001 that they needed cut back payroll from the 2000 high and put that money into draft budgets playing for some more expensive talent, but they refused(as an organization) and kept on hoping 1999 would strike again. The Cast era Reds have continued this tradition. Literally..........so far.

The fact is, nobody that runs to the Reds seems to understand how to build up a good product, which in the long run, sags revenue even more. A nasty repeating cycle.

[Patrick Bateman]

Krivsky doesn't set the budget all by himself, especially if the owner(Cast) wants to win now. Krivsky may feel spreading that money around on players he can get rid of easier than signing a player to a 9 mill deal for 3 years to deal with overtime since the owner wanted it spent on payroll(for example). We don't know how this money came into being spent and how it was planned, no one man is to blame, but a organizational wide failing.

That's certainly true, but Krivsky is a guy that Cast has put a lot of faith into. Surely Krivsky recognizes that this current Reds team is not ready to contend with it's current state.

Knowing Krivsky's want to improve the farm system, he should be more than willing to put his efforts into convincing Cast that increasing the draft budget would be beneficial in the overall scheme of things. We as fans obviously don't have all the facts, but when draft day comes and a situation arises where the Reds pass on Wieters, there should be a lot of irate fans and a lot of blame to be passed around, which will fall squarely on one man's shoulders. If he fails in convincing Cast, he's the one who feels the heat.

[Aronchis]

That's certainly true, but Krivsky is a guy that Cast has put a lot of faith into. Surely Krivsky recognizes that this current Reds team is not ready to contend with it's current state.

Knowing Krivsky's want to improve the farm system, he should be more than willing to put his efforts into convincing Cast that increasing the draft budget would be beneficial in the overall scheme of things. We as fans obviously don't have all the facts, but when draft day comes and a situation arises where the Reds pass on Wieters, there should be a lot of irate fans and a lot of blame to be passed around, which will fall squarely on one man's shoulders. If he fails in convincing Cast, he's the one who feels the heat.

Doesn't matter, if he cries to he is blue in the face and Cast won't budge, then it is all mute. It is organizational problem AK, not one man. It starts at the top. People never gave Lindner a moments rest besides the fact he pretty much ran by the Limiteds conservative plans and let Allen/Bowden handle everything.

Cast should get no less anger directed at him than Krivsky. The plan that is on the field is his own doing. If Krivsky talked him into this mess, he should fire him, if he can't see that he needs to be fired, then he should let somebody else handle running the club. If he has ignored Krivsky's advice for rebuilding and continues to do so, then he should step down.

It is simply up to Cast. He is the boss. He can make the corrective moves.

[dougdirt]

I figured someone would say that. But please don't think my opinion is just based on this year which includes less than 200 ABs at Dayton. I thought it was a bad pick last year when they made it and his performance in the minor leagues since then (including in rookie ball last year) has just backed it up. Stubbs strikes out too much and we should have taken the best pitcher available there.

I am not giving up on Stubbs, just pointing out it was a bad pick for that early in the draft. Especially with our pitching needs. Why take an OF there when you just took an OF the previous year with your first round pick and you need pitching as much or more than anything. I just don't get why Krivsky fell in love with Drew Stubbs. He is one of these "5 tool" players who isn't great at anything. He is supposed to be a power hitter, but he has 6 HRs this year and didn't hit many last year either. He doesn't hit for average. He is good but not great defensively. He's fast, but not a guy who is going to steal 30 bags in the majors. He has a strong arm, but nothing too special.

Anytime that you draft for need in baseball you are setting yourself up to fail. The Reds have so much more pitching talent in the minors than they do hitting talent its not even really that close. You don't just draft the best pitching available if you think that the guy you are going to take would be the best pro one day. Did I like the Drew Stubbs pick at the time? Absolutely not. I wanted Billy Rowell like a fat kid wants an extra slice of birthday cake, but it didnt happen.
As for Stubbs not being great at anything.... I am not sure how much defense you have seen him play, but its great. The guy is like a thouroughbred out in CF. He just glides effortlessly to the ball like he isnt even trying. As for his bat, it has some questions, but when people try to compare it to BJ Szymanski I just laugh. They both strike out a lot, but thats about where it ends with the comparisons. Drew had a bad April, but in May he was very solid with a .403 OBP and a .447 SLG and he even improved the rate at which he struck out.
If he were a corner infield or outfield guy, I might be a little worried about his bat, but since he isnt and he plays one of the lightest hitting positions on the field, he truly needs to OPS just .750 and play good defense to be a very valuable player.

[Patrick Bateman]

Doesn't matter, if he cries to he is blue in the face and Cast won't budge, then it is all mute. It is organizational problem AK, not one man. It starts at the top. People never gave Lindner a moments rest besides the fact he pretty much ran by the Limiteds conservative plans and let Allen/Bowden handle everything.

Cast should get no less anger directed at him than Krivsky. The plan that is on the field is his own doing. If Krivsky talked him into this mess, he should fire him, if he can't see that he needs to be fired, then he should let somebody else handle running the club. If he has ignored Krivsky's advice for rebuilding and continues to do so, then he should step down.

It is simply up to Cast. He is the boss. He can make the corrective moves.

I'm not convicned that's true. Since the day Krivsky got the GM spot, it has seemed that Cast has allowed Krivsky to basically steer the ship. IMO, I have always got the impression that Cast had the utmost faith in Krivsky to get the job done. During the whole GM search, Krivsky amongst other candidates had to basically form their plan and convince Cast that their plan was the right one. Knowing the general philosophy in Minny that building through the farm was the way to go for small market teams (this has been the philosophy that Krivsky has shown), I'd be absolutely shocked if Krivsky couldn't get Cast on board to put some extra part of the budget on the draft (especially if it meant getting a massively better prospect as a reward).

That's the type of plan that Krivsky used to convince Cast that he was the man for the job. So what has changed since then that it would be impossible to convince Cast that the draft is a secondary expenditure of talent? I get the distinct impression that Krivsky has the type of power with Cast that if he wants Wieters, then he will get Wieters.

[M2]

Financial considerations are a part of the draft, whether we like it or not, it matters to many teams, even more so this year. If I'm not mistaken, outside of college seniors, teams have to sign thier picks by Aug 15, I may be wrong on this, but I remember something said about it. If that's the case, Boras will have a field day this year.

The Aug. 15th deadline is actually an anti-Boras rule. It means he can't stretch out negotiations ad infinitum.

As for financial considerations, either the Reds are prepared to play with the big dogs or they're not. Castellini walked in claiming he would not conduct business as usual. Here's a chance to prove it. The Reds talked themselves out of Derek Jeter and Scott Kazmir in past years due to "financial considerations." If Wieters is there he's the best player on the board, period. He's considered the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

Put up or shut up, Bob. I'm not interested in empty promises, I'm interested in the team I root for acting like it's not a doormat.

[LoganBuck]

The Aug. 15th deadline is actually an anti-Boras rule. It means he can't stretch out negotiations ad infinitum.

As for financial considerations, either the Reds are prepared to play with the big dogs or they're not. Castellini walked in claiming he would not conduct business as usual. Here's a chance to prove it. The Reds talked themselves out of Derek Jeter and Scott Kazmir in past years due to "financial considerations." If Wieters is there he's the best player on the board, period. He's considered the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

Put up or shut up, Bob. I'm not interested in empty promises, I'm interested in the team I root for acting like it's not a doormat.

Krivsky was part of the team that drafted and developed Joe Maurer. Maybe there is a chance, that they take Wieters.

[Aronchis]

The Aug. 15th deadline is actually an anti-Boras rule. It means he can't stretch out negotiations ad infinitum.

As for financial considerations, either the Reds are prepared to play with the big dogs or they're not. Castellini walked in claiming he would not conduct business as usual. Here's a chance to prove it. The Reds talked themselves out of Derek Jeter and Scott Kazmir in past years due to "financial considerations." If Wieters is there he's the best player on the board, period. He's considered the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

Put up or shut up, Bob. I'm not interested in empty promises, I'm interested in the team I root for acting like it's not a doormat.

Amen!!!!

[Blue]

I think Wieters will be a non issue shortly after the draft begins. I can't see the Cubs passing on him at 3.

[HBP]

Just for reference, the last ten #15 picks:

2006 - Nationals - Christopher Marrero
2005 – White Sox - Lance Broadway
2004 – Diamondbacks - Stephen Drew
2003 – White Sox – Brian Anderson
2002 – Mets – Scott Kazmir
2001 – Blue Jays - Gabe Gross
2000 – Phillies - Chase Utley
1999 - White Sox - Jason Stumm
1998 – Pirates - Clinton Johnston
1997 - White Sox - Jason Dellaero