Hi,

I was messing around with some figures while waiting for the Reds' supplemental pick. I don't know if they are of any interest to you. I can't post in ORG so that is why I am sending them in a PM.

Code:

CIN-SIT PA BR RS HR BRS %BRS

OXO 190 190 29 4 25 13.2%

OOX 68 68 30 2 28 41.2%

XXO 150 150 26 4 22 14.7%

XOX 54 54 22 3 19 35.2%

OXX 40 80 21 2 19 23.8%

XXX 62 124 46 0 46 37.1%

RISP 564 666 174 15 159 23.9%

This is the chart I set up for Cincinnati. The numbers are all from baseball-reference.com. The first column is the base-runner situation. X = man on base; O = base empty. We take each base situation and multiply it by the runners in scoring position for that situation to get the total number of base runners. In the first four situations there is one runner in scoring position and in the last two situations there are two runners in scoring position. Once we get the total number of base runners we total up the run scored and subtract out the number of home runs (since these are included in the runs scored but were not actually in scoring position) to get the percentage of base runners scored. This is not perfect. Obviously some of the runners that are on first scored; but since there is no way to get that information without going through all the gamelogs I just decided that it was an even percentage for each team. That is how I came up with the 23.9 % for Cincinnati. I then did that for each team and the NL as a whole. That chart looks like this.

Code:

TEAM %BRS REL-BRS BARISP REL-BARISP

CHC 27.0% 105 0.288 110

SFG 28.4% 110 0.288 110

LAD 26.6% 103 0.274 105

ATL 26.5% 103 0.272 104

HOU 25.5% 99 0.269 103

STL 26.4% 102 0.266 102

SDP 26.1% 101 0.265 102

PHI 25.7% 100 0.260 100

FLA 25.5% 99 0.255 98

COL 25.0% 97 0.256 98

NYM 25.1% 97 0.253 97

ARI 25.7% 100 0.254 97

PIT 24.8% 96 0.251 96

MIL 25.2% 98 0.245 94

WSN 25.1% 97 0.239 92

CIN 23.9% 93 0.229 88

NL 25.8% 100 0.261 100

The four columns are 1)percentage of base runners in scoring position to score, 2)that percentage was set relative to the league (100 being league average), 3) batting average with runners in scoring position, 4)that batting average set relative to the league.

It can be seen that as the BARISP increases over league average (100+), the percentage of base runners in scoring position that score increases over league average (100+) in almost every case. It decreases likewise.

So what does this all mean? Is it a significant amount? A look at the reds shows that it does. The Reds had 666 base runners in scoring position. If they had driven them in at a 25.8 percent league-average clip instead of 23.9, it would result in about 12.5 extra runs. This is for 2007 so far or roughly 1/3 of the season. For a whole season that would be between 35 and 40 more runs scored. And that is only improving to a league-average rate. If they were among the league leaders it would be an even greater amount. (probably around 55 - 60 more runs).

Maybe there is no such thing as 'clutch'. Maybe a hitter is what he is. But this data seems to reinforce the importance of BARISP. It certainly seems possible.