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Thread: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

  1. #1
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    Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    I've noticed since his recall Edwin has hit for less power than he used to last year, and I was wondering what everyone though of Edwin in the 1 or 2 spot on the lineup?

    He's got his average up to .288 and is now 2nd in the team with average behind my boy Norris.
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  3. #2
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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Leave him where he can knock in baserunners. He is the only one we can count on at the moment to drive them in on a consistent basis.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by pokeyfan View Post
    Leave him where he can knock in baserunners. He is the only one we can count on at the moment to drive them in on a consistent basis.
    What, you don't want to dethrone Mr. Castro from the 2 spot?
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    I wouldn't mind seeing Hatte/Hamilton and Edwin 1-2. Without looking up the numbers, I do agree with you that he is hitting for less power, but I do not think it is drastically less.

    Let's look at the numbers.
    Last year he had 406 ABs, this year he has 163. He had roughly 2.49 times the ABs. So, lets multiply this year's stats by 2.49 to match them up.

    2006: 33 2B, 15 HR, 72 RBI
    2007 (projected out to 406 Abs): 20 2B, 10 HR, 65 rbi

    However, you also have to factor in he didn't hit for over the 1st month of the season. He is hitting for less power, but again not that much less if you take out the slow start.

    I wouldn't mind seeing a lineup of:
    Hatteberg
    Edwin
    Griffey
    Hamilton
    Phillips
    Dunn
    Gonzalez
    Ross

    You could hit him 2nd, 4th, or 5th. It really doesn't matter at this point.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    I think you are better with him lower in the lineup he is one of the few Reds hitting better with Runners on then with No one on. As I posted in the thread about the Reds RISP issues:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...t=58959&page=4

    Code:
    Player       OPS    OPS RISP 2 out   OPS RISP    OPS runners on    OPS none on  OBP NONE   OPS Late+close
    
    KG Jr       .897       1.100            .877            1.036          .789      .331         .544
    
    Dunn        .877        .620            .761             .819          .923      .371         .544
    
    Hamilton    .870        .853            .768             .985          .809      .333         .718
    
    Hatteberg   .846        .762            .665             .812          .872      .378        1.114
    
    Gonzalez    .830        .299            .564             .679          .968      .379         .463
    
    Phillips    .818        .842            .875             .808          .824      .331         .752
    
    Hopper      .748        .629            .717             .688          .785      .340         .846
    
    Conine      .745        .972            .858             .733          .751      .328         .459
    
    EE          .736        .790            .912             .815          .674      .337         .414
    
    Valentin    .708        .685            .943             .651          .751      .368         .900
    
    Freel       .676        .733            .842             .855          .588      .265         .510
    
    Ross        .593        1.078           .602             .658          .515      .269         .243
    
    
    Reds        .751        .690            .711             .751          .752      .325         .594
    Opponents   .765        .865            .844             .843          .705      .305         .843

    Gonzalez, Dunn and Hamilton have all thrived in the 2 spot
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

    Gonzalez and EE have both done will at 7th as has Hamilton in more limited sample
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

    Production from the 5th spot has been poor though Phillips and Hamilton have done well in small samples. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

    Freel has been ugly in the leadoff spot.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

    The clean up spot has been outperformed with Jr doing far better in the 3 spot though Dunn has been okay in small sample.


    Based on this my suggested lineup would be
    Gonzalez
    Hamilton
    Griffey
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Hatteberg/Conine
    Encarnacion
    Ross
    Pitcher
    Last edited by klw; 06-08-2007 at 04:23 PM. Reason: Add quote

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    i agree with KLW he is better in the 5 6 or 7 hole when there are men on base where he can knock them in. Right now he is our best hitter with runners in scoring position

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    I think you are better with him lower in the lineup he is one of the few Reds hitting better with Runners on then with No one on.
    That's a good point. He was one of the (if not the) best player on the team last with RISP, and he is doing it again this year.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421 View Post
    Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?
    Beat me to it, keep him at 6 or 7 imo.
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421 View Post
    Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?
    Yes due to Gonzalez's OBP with no one on being .379. It is the situation in which he is thriving. As a comparison Freel's OBP in that situation is only .265. While Hopper and Hamilton have down well in small sample sizes in the leadoff role, Hamilton is better positioned elsewhere in the lineup and Hopper should be the 4th of with Hamilton back. Gonzalez has thrived in the 2d spot but so has Hamilton and Hamilton is better with Runners on than Gonzalez. I don't think you have Gonzalez lower because he has been awful this year in spots where there are RISP which he is more likely to find in 6 or 7. He has done well in the 7 spot but there really isn't a good leadoff alternative.
    Last edited by klw; 06-08-2007 at 04:44 PM.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Yes due to OBP with no one on being .379. It is the situation in which he is thriving. As a comparison Freel's OBP in that situation is only .265.
    You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?

    Ideally, Alex Gonzalez would be nowhere near my favorite team's roster. If he must play for the Reds, bat him at the bottom of the order and hope his contact-driven OPS can net you a few RBIs.

  13. #12
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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421 View Post
    You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?
    .
    Obviously but the odds of him coming up with runners on after the 8 spot and the pitcher are lower than if he is following the meat of the order. For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51). AG is only hitting .170 in that situation. I say try him up top and see how he does in the role. He has done well in the two spot.
    Last edited by klw; 06-08-2007 at 04:59 PM.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Obviously but the odds of him coming up with runners on after the 8 spot and the pitcher are lower than if he is following the meat of the order. For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51). AG is only hitting .170 in that situation. I say try him up top and see how he does in the role. He has done well in the two spot.
    You're using small sample size number crunching in place of using your head.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by dsmith421 View Post
    You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?

    Ideally, Alex Gonzalez would be nowhere near my favorite team's roster. If he must play for the Reds, bat him at the bottom of the order and hope his contact-driven OPS can net you a few RBIs.
    OK, never mind the fact that he's near if not in the top 10 in the NL in HR, and 2nd for SS.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

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    Re: Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51).
    Just a tangent, I thought this was interesting because we always complain about lineup construction. Yet Jerry has managed to put our potentially biggest run driving threat (Dunn) in exactly the position he needs to be in to produce.

    Maybe Jerry should make up his lineup and have someone switch Dunn and Griffey so Jr. can cash in on those opportunities...he seems to be pretty hot right now.


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