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Thread: Get ahead of the trading curve?

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Get ahead of the trading curve?

    What do people think about the idea of making your tradeable assets available in mid June as a way of maximizing value? As it's pretty clear this isn't the year, why not shop Lohse right now, after he's got a couple really sparkling starts in recent memory? A team will feel able to give more in return when they get 3.5 months instead of 2 and because so many other teams are hesitant to give up as of yet, it's a total sellers market.

    Just curious if you guys think it would be smart or if you'd rather use the deadline as leverage and put the heat on the buyers a little more.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    Depends on the GM and how desperate they are, selling early and you also have a bigger group of teams who still feel they are in it.
    Go Gators!

  4. #3
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    It makes sense in theory. But sellers require buyers, and just as a lot of teams aren't ready to pronounce themselves out of the race, the buyers' market is still taking shape and most teams aren't quite to the point where they know exactly what they need and are ready to put their best chips on the table.

    I'd go ahead and start talking about deals, though. We don't know when in the next seven weeks the market will be most favorable, but we need to ready when it is.
    Not all who wander are lost

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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    It takes two to tango. Very few GM's are ready/willing to make a deal at this stage of the season.

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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    What do people think about the idea of making your tradeable assets available in mid June as a way of maximizing value? As it's pretty clear this isn't the year, why not shop Lohse right now, after he's got a couple really sparkling starts in recent memory? A team will feel able to give more in return when they get 3.5 months instead of 2 and because so many other teams are hesitant to give up as of yet, it's a total sellers market.

    Just curious if you guys think it would be smart or if you'd rather use the deadline as leverage and put the heat on the buyers a little more.
    I think it is a good idea if said player is at peak value for what he could fetch, and one of the following two criteria are met: 1.) a trading partner is willing to pay the premium to get him now, or 2.) several bidders have an immediate need. Given Lohse's enigmatic performance throughout his career, I doubt anyone will pay the premium (maybe the Yankees because of the rotation woes?), and I don't see that many bidders tripping over themselves to get a starting pitcher (at least, not yet).

    But you are right, Texas traded Ugueth Urbina at the All Star break and got Adrian Gonzalez in return. The Reds did the same with Jeff Shaw and got Konerko and Reyes. So there is a good precedent for this type of pre-emptive move. In fact, Weathers would be another candidate to deal in short order--Detroit would serve as a fine match.

    The good news is that the Reds are in a rare place--a team that is out of contention and has a number of interesting parts to deal before August 30: Conine and/or Hatteberg, Milton (if he ever returns), Lohse, Weathers, Stanton, and Griffey/Dunn (in the right scenario).

  7. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    It's an intriguing idea. That said, I'm not sure how strong the trade market is right now since alot a teams won't make up their mind about whether they're in or out until mid-July.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    I don't know how strong the trade market is right now but if I'm Krivsky I make it known that I'm ready to deal any day now. I'd make the foloowing available:

    Griffey, Lohse, Dunn, Valentin, Conine, Hatteberg, Weathers, Stanton.

    David Weathers should have great value as a rubber armed veteran out of the pen. If he doesn't I'd hang onto him because he can be used in so many ways and he's great for the younger pitchers. Thus I wouldn't give him away.

    In addition to pitching which we always need, I'd like to see some athletic OFs in return as well as a decent catcher and a better utility INF than Castro. We can't expect Brad Lidge, but I think we can use these veterans to fill holes and come out strong next year but this trade deadline is an important part of that.

  9. #8
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    Your larger point about when to start trading is excellent...last year Krivsky "lost" when he made the early deal (as evidenced by the value received/given up in other relief pitcher deals last summer) but IIRC sometimes the early deals are the best ones...as others have said, its about being patient enough to find the right team to trade with and the right value to receive, whether now or later...

    A smaller debate for me is whether to deal Lohse...I know I am squarely in the minority, but if I could get a reasonable extension (understandably doubtful with him being a Boras client, IIRC) for him, I'd love to keep him...maddingly varied performance but the aggregate for me is more than worthy of being in our rotation...but if I couldn't get a deal in place by end of July, yes I would move him for prospects...


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  10. #9
    You're being very UnDude. sonny's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    The closer the deadline, the more teams are willing to give up the goods to get someone like a David Weathers. What to do, what to do?

    I think if we shop early, more teams may be interested, but at the expense of getting top prospects.
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  11. #10
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Get ahead of the trading curve?

    I'd definatley be working the phones now. That way if a good deal comes together you "beat the christmas rush" and still have time for other deals closer to the deadline. If no deals come together early, at least the "ditch digging" of the negotiations has been acomplished prior to the frenzy of the trade deadline.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


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