Draft's '08 class loaded with talent

[OnBaseMachine]

Draft's '08 class loaded with talent
By Jonathon Mayo / MLB.com

With the second the 2007 First-Year Player Draft ended, some have automatically turned their attention to the 2008 Draft class.

Scouting staffs will begin work on next year's Draft almost immediately. A lot can happen over the next year, but it's interesting to note which players would be atop Draft boards right now.

If you can't wait to learn about these top players, there are a number of places you can check them out. For a two-for-one shopping experience, head to Cape Cod. The top college players often play in the elite wood bat Cape Cod League and that circuit's all-star game is on July 28 in Wareham. One day earlier is the Baseball Express Cape Cod Classic, a high school all-star game which has featured players like 2007 first-rounders Josh Vitters and Phillippe Aumont. Not enough? Head across country for the AFLAC All-American Game in San Diego on Aug. 11.

Here's a list of high schoolers and college players who should be watched closely for next year's Draft.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
Alvarez was the only college player not eligible for the 2007 Draft who was a Golden Spikes Award finalist. The Vanderbilt third baseman was the SEC Tournament MVP hit .386, slugged .684 and had a .463 OBP during his standout 2007 season.

Jack Armstrong, RHP, Jupiter Community HS, Fla.
The son of the former big league pitcher of the same name, this younger Armstrong is a thin 6-foot-6 righty who throws in the low 90s. He's got room for more with a low-effort delivery. A standout basketball player as well, Armstrong is a terrific athlete.

Jordan Danks, OF, University of Texas
Danks, the younger brother of White Sox pitcher John Danks, was a pretty good prospect out of high school but wanted to go to Texas. He hit .332 in his sophomore year with 19 steals and a .440 OBP.

Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State
Another good draft prospect out of high school, Davis honored his commitment to ASU. He's been a two-way player as a left-handed pitcher, but his future is at the plate. Davis hit .354 as a sophomore and slugged .547.

Anthony Ferrara, Riverview HS, Fla.
Ferrara is a left-hander who has cranked it up into the mid-90s. He had some biceps tendinitis this season, but if he can stay healthy, the sky's the limit.

Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS, Calif.
He might be considered the top high schooler in the class as of right now. Hicks is an athletic two-way player who can reach the low 90s from the mound, but is probably an outfielder in the future and a potential five-tool guy.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage School, Fla.
Hosmer is a pure hitter from the left side of the plate, with a very fluid stroke. He's got some leverage for future power. He also can touch 90 mph on the mound, but the bat is his best tool.

Casey Kelly, Sarasota HS, Fla.
The son of Pat Kelly (the one who played briefly for the Blue Jays), Kelly is a big, strong and athletic shortstop. He's one of the top high school quarterbacks in the country as well and he shows the arm strength at short. He's got a short swing with some pop. Even though he's big, he should at least get the chance to stay at short.

Daniel Marrs, RHP, James River HS, Va.
Marrs dealt with a little tendinitis this spring, but sits in the low 90s with his fastball. His secondary stuff is a little behind, but he's a tall right-hander with plus arm strength.

Brian Matusz, RHP, San Diego
The second-team All-American went 10-3 with a 2.85 ERA, striking out 163 and walking just 37 over 123 innings for San Diego. Hitters managed just a .214 average against him during his sophomore season.

Quinton Miller, RHP, Shawnee HS, NJ
A right-hander with a low-90s fastball, he's got more advanced command than some of the other prepsters on this list. He can throw three pitches for strikes and might have a few more ticks on his fastball as he matures.

Tyson Ross, RHP, California
It may not have been a good 2007 draft for college right-handers, but 2008 might be different with Matusz and Ross at the top. Ross had a 2.49 ERA for the Cal Bears, striking out 120 and walked 39 in 115 2/3 innings.

Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
A 16th-round selection in 2005, he would have gone much higher if not for his strong commitment to South Carolina. After hitting .317 with 21 homers as a sophomore, he now has 38 round-trippers in his two years of college ball.

Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia
Thompson became the Friday starter this past season, replacing Sean Doolittle, the school's all-time wins leader. That should tell you enough about him, but his 11-0 record, 1.50 ERA, .198 batting average against and 101 strikeouts in 114 innings show he belongs in the group of elite college righties on this list.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...2007&fext=.jsp

[KronoRed]

Lets go number 1 pick

[Sea Ray]

Jack Armstrong, RHP, Jupiter Community HS, Fla.
The son of the former big league pitcher of the same name, this younger Armstrong is a thin 6-foot-6 righty who throws in the low 90s. He's got room for more with a low-effort delivery. A standout basketball player as well, Armstrong is a terrific athlete.

Am I feeling old or what???

[Superdude]

Alavarez is supposed to be a freak isn't he? Maybe we should bring Milton back for a few starts.

[Eric_Davis]

There's a really good pitcher from your neck of the woods that nearly no-hit the Oregon State Beavers on Sunday. He lost the no-hitter and the game with one out in the 9th 1-0 on a single after the Beavers got on base with an error.

He pitches for the University of Michigan and his coach a few days ago said that he should be a 1st round pick next year, then he goes out and does this against an Oregon State team that's not only the defending champs, but had woken up their bats in the regional last weekend winning 3 consecutive elimination games.

His name is Zach Putnam. Watch him when he comes to your area in the Big-10 games next year.

[dabvu2498]

Alavarez is supposed to be a freak isn't he? Maybe we should bring Milton back for a few starts.

He is an absolute freak.

[princeton]

there's a toolsy Texas OFer?

ruhroh

[Red Leader]

There's a really good pitcher from your neck of the woods that nearly no-hit the Oregon State Beavers on Sunday. He lost the no-hitter and the game with one out in the 9th 1-0 on a single after the Beavers got on base with an error.

He pitches for the University of Michigan and his coach a few days ago said that he should be a 1st round pick next year, then he goes out and does this against an Oregon State team that's not only the defending champs, but had woken up their bats in the regional last weekend winning 3 consecutive elimination games.

His name is Zach Putnam. Watch him when he comes to your area in the Big-10 games next year.

Putnam is a very nice pitcher and should have a very, very good year next year. If he has the kind of year he's capable of, he should be a first round pick. He's was very good in the regionals vs Vandy and even better against Oregon St. He's definitely going to have momentum going into next year as far as draft stock goes.

[NC Reds]

Sea Ray, I had the same response to seeing the name Jack Armstrong. It does not feel like 1990 was that long ago.

[Red Leader]

I watched the UCLA / Cal St. Fullerton game last night. That Gavin Brooks kid for UCLA was quite impressive. LHP struck out 12 in the loss.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm not going to root against the Reds or anything, but they would be better off for the future finishing with a top three pick next season. I would love to get a chance at Pedro Alvarez or Brian Matusz.

[Eric_Davis]

Do we have any Free Agents we could lose that would earn us a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round next year?

[Sea Ray]

Do we have any Free Agents we could lose that would earn us a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round next year?

I would think Adam Dunn or Kyle Lohse would qualify

[Eric_Davis]

I would think Adam Dunn or Kyle Lohse would qualify

Here's Dunn's current status:

Adam Dunn of
2 years/$18.5M (2006-07), plus $13M 2008 club option

re-signed 2/06, avoided arbitration ($8.95M-$7.1M)
06:$7.5M, 07:$10.5M, 08:$13M club option ($0.5M buyout)
2008 option may increase to $16M based on award bonuses
2008 option voids if Dunn is traded before 2008

1 year/$4.6M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
1 year/$0.445M (2004), re-signed 3/04
1 year/$0.4M (2003) 3/03
agent: Brian Peters, Greg Genske

ML service: 5.074

Here's a reprint of the changes to this system:

By Alan Schwarz

October 25, 2006


ST. LOUIS -- Overshadowed by more wide-ranging issues and the sheer euphoria of an agreement between Major League Baseball and the Players Association being reached with no rancor or threats of a work stoppage, the structure of the new five-year Collective Bargaining Agreement announced yesterday between labor and management did carry some significant changes to baseball’s amateur draft and player-development pipeline.

Several draft alterations, ranging from a uniform Aug. 15 signing deadline to compensation for unsigned picks, will change how both teams and players experience the process, as well as how much and when money changes hands.

The most notable changes are those that deal with draft-pick compensation--both for teams that fail to sign a high pick as well as those who lose major league free agents in the offseason.

Teams that fail to sign a first-round pick no longer receive an extra pick after the first round as compensation, but instead a virtually identical pick the following year; for example, a team that fails to sign the No. 5 pick one year will receive the No. 6 pick the next, rather than one in the 30s or 40s. The same compensation also now exists for unsigned second-round picks, while a team that fails to sign a third-round pick will receive a sandwich pick between the third and fourth rounds.

The new system should decrease the growth of bonus payments to amateurs, as teams can walk away from negotiations with the reassurance of having a similar pick the next year. (Although that compensation pick, if unsigned, is not subject to compensation, which keeps clubs from using it over and over.) Clubs have for years wanted a system of prescribed, slotted bonuses for every high pick but learned early in the negotiations that the union would not accept it, so instead focused on stronger compensation rules.

"The concern with clubs was to get that club that was drafting as much leverage that they can have, so they can select the best player they possibly can," said former Cubs president Andy MacPhail, a member of ownership’s negotiation team. To the extent that bonus offers will probably either decrease or not grow as quickly because teams can walk away more comfortably, union executive director Donald Fehr said, "It will clearly have an effect. It will clearly not put (players) in the position that they would have been in had slotting been accepted. You have to find compromises."

One other change to the amateur draft is a uniform signing date of Aug. 15 for all players (other than college seniors), replacing the longtime and clumsy deadline of the moment a player literally attends his first four-year college class. In addition to creating some order for all involved--from teams to players to college coaches wanting an earlier idea of their incoming class--this also eliminates the junior-college, draft-and-follow rule in which players who attended two-year schools could sign with their drafting club until one week before the following draft.

Several ideas that have been discussed over the years, such as the trading of draft picks and an either supplemental or combined draft of all players worldwide, were not adopted. Also, the draft will continue to be held in June rather than be moved to July.

"The changes in the draft will help the teams in the bottom of the industry," MLB CEO Bob DuPuy said, "because they’re getting better draft picks."

Some changes have been made to the draft-pick compensation afforded teams which lose major league free agents. Type C free agents have been eliminated, while teams that lose Type B free agents, which had previously received a pick from the signing club, will now get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. (This was pursued by the union to remove the disincentive for teams to sign those players.) Those changes go into effect immediately.

The number of players deemed Type A and B has been tweaked as well. Type A free agents, whose former team continues to receive a first- or second-round pick from the signing club as well as an extra pick between the first and second rounds, will be reduced from the 30 percent of players (as determined by a statistical formula) to 20; the Type B band is reduced from 31-50 percent to 21-40.

These changes will take effect next offseason, allowing clubs which lose free agents this winter the same compensation they had always expected. Teams must still offer players salary arbitration to receive draft-pick compensation, though the deadline for that offer was moved up from Dec. 7 to Dec. 1.

The first-year player draft, also known as the Rule 4 draft, was not the only draft process altered by the new CBA. The major league portion of the Rule 5 draft will be affected by giving teams one extra year to protect players from it.

Rather than teams being allowed three years (for players signed at age 19 or older) or four years (for players 18 and younger) before leaving them off the 40-man roster subjects them to the Rule 5 draft, those periods have been lengthened to four and five. Ownership considered this a significant boost in their efforts to operate their minor league systems more effectively.

"It gives the clubs more flexibility with their roster," said MacPhail, who added that the cost to select a player ($50,000) or get him back from the selecting club ($25,000) remain the same.

"Anytime you can give them more tools to operate as efficiently as they possibly can is something we strive to do," he continued. "There are a lot of kids at that stage where you’re just not quite sure whether you want to get that clock ticking--the last thing you want to do is take a talented 22-year-old kid who’s not ready and you develop him for somebody else. Or often you’ll see guys taken out of A-ball who aren’t close but they get plucked out of the Midwest League. You try to let the developing clubs get as much time as they possibly can to make the best decisions they can."

This rule applies to this current offseason, meaning that many minor league players who had expected to either be placed on the 40-man roster or be subject to the Rule 5 draft will have to wait another year. The union did negotiate a higher minimum salary for 40-man roster players optioned to the minor leagues ($30,000 next year), but acknowledged that this was a significant concession to ownership.

"That was one of the major things we had to give up, no question about it--to me it was the worst thing we had to give up," said Diamondbacks infielder Craig Counsell, a player representative to the union negotiating team. "Some players, especially immediately, are going to be hurt by that--this year. But in the end, you have to give up something to get something."

[Eric_Davis]

So, from the bold facetype from above, the REDS should get the signing clubs 1st Round pick AND a pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds, where there was about 30 of those this year, so the 2nd pick could be anywhere between 31-60.

Even with 1st round picks only having a 50% chance of reaching the Majors, I think I'd rather take my chances on the two picks, then to trade Dunn away. Dunn has to be considered among the top 20% as a Type-A player. I don't think Lohse qualifies as a Type-B player, so he should either be resigned for another year or traded.

We can let Dunn play out the year and come out good, or someone will have to come up with a really good offer that is better than a 1st and a 2nd round pick.

We could get screwed though as the REDS have to offer Dunn arbitration salary, and if he takes it and wins the case, we could end up paying him $14M-16M/year for 4 or 5 years. On a team with a $68M budget that would be suicide.