Originally Posted by
Benihana
Well I completely disagree with your list! And that, my young friend, is what makes the world go 'round. You can't sit here and tell me what I "have to judge on." I agree, the ceiling of the prospect is very important, but their track record is quite important as well. You can talk about Baseball America and how they evaluate the Reds Top Prospects year after year, but they are the same publication that will stick a guy at the top of a list simply because of their draft status. (See: Gruler, Espinosa, Sardinha, etc.) Now I'm not saying that ceiling is not an enormous factor when evaluating a prospect (hence, I put Francisco in the top 10), but you have to pay attention to age, track record, minor league level, and other factors as well. Drew Stubbs has done absolutely nothing since being drafted in the first round a year ago. Therefore, he does not make the top 10 in my book. Yes, he has a great glove, and has some potential at the plate, and that is why he hasn't completely dropped off of the top 15 list, but his likelihood to be a starter at the major league level based off of his performance as a pro so far has greatly diminished.
And don't get me wrong, I'm very high on the young pitchers- Ravin, Lotzkar, etc. as well as Mesoraco. However right now, I would never put a guy who has never played a meaningful game on a bigger stage than a high school in rural Pennsylvania ahead of guys who have dominated at AA. I just wouldn't.
As far as young pitchers without any professional track record making the list just on pure potential go, if you were a little older you would remember the days of Chris Gruler, Justin Gillman, Ty Howington, Ryan Snare, Ryan Mottl, and Ricardo Aramboles. Josh Ravin might have made BA's list last year, but so did all the guys listed above, and that was before the Reds farm system came on really strong (as it has this year).