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Thread: RE: Where there is smoke there is fire

  1. #1
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    RE: Where there is smoke there is fire

    Interesting thread going on up in the ORG.

    Some highlights:
    More of the same from Espn this AM on the trade rumors involving Adam Dunn and JR. The Dodgers are desperate to get some power in their lineup and Dunn fits the bill of the 40 hr guy they are looking for. Look for talks to heat up soon.


    Rumors also continue on JR to the Braves.

    I am always one that feels that if a rumor stays around enough it just might happen. What does everyone else think?
    I agree.

    I was listening to Tracy Jones (don't ask) yesterday and he was telling the masses that this team was "close" to being a pennant winning team. Sure enough, the next 2-3 callers all said that they appreciated his comments because they also felt this team was close.

    I don't think this team is that close. They need several pieces added. A front three of Harang, Arroyo, and Homer is nice. Belisle looks like he could be an immediate #4. That part is nice. Get rid of Conine and Hatteberg and you've got Votto to fill in, and for less money, that's not bad either. Phillips is nice. Encarnacion is nice, too. Gonzalez isn't a bad "veteran" player at SS (but isn't a good solution long term). Ross at catcher isn't the best, but he's not the worst option either. I surely wouldn't keep him when he starts to get expensive, though. Hamilton is great in the OF. Bruce will be up sometime to take over for Griffey. Need another OF if both Dunn and Griffey are traded. So in the rotation we need a #5 starter going forward and in the field we need another OFer (if Dunn and Griffey are traded), and you could argue that the Reds have Cueto and Freel to fill those two roles. That's not all bad, and close enough where I would say this group isn't that far away...

    The problems come in the bullpen and on the bench. Currently both are horrid. The Reds need to get rid of Maj and Stanton. Weathers and Santos need to be traded. We need to give important innings to the young guys (Burton, Coutlangus, Coffey, MacBeth, Salmon) and bring up others to help them and get their feet wet (Medlock, Guevara).

    The bench: Hopper is fine. Freel is fine. Moeller and Valentin need to go. Castro needs to go. Maybe you could keep Hatteberg for another year to backup and provide insurance for Votto next year. I wouldn't mind Hatteberg as a bench player. The other three positions need to be address, though. A better backup catcher (than Moeller) would be nice. A better LH pinch hitter (than Valentin) would also be nice. A backup infielder to replace Castro? Yeah, we need one of those.

    So, are we close? Eh, we're not that far, I guess, but in order to stay close, we have to purge the veterans that Wayne seems so happy to collect, we have to turn the bullpen over to the youngsters soon so they can get invaluable experience and adjust to the level we need them to be at, and we need to bring in some bats for the bench. We can be a lot closer going into next season than we are now, but if this F.O. doesn't do the right things we could also be a lot further away.



    Trading chips: Griffey, Dunn, Freel, Hatteberg, Lohse, Weathers and Santos.

    Pieces needed: Starting OF (preferably young and RH), Young closer or closer prospect, 5th starter (if Cueto isn't ready by ST 2008), Backup C, Backup INF, LH bench bat.

    We should be able to fill all of those spots and get more prospects with the players we have to move, IMO.
    I could definitely see Griffey and Lohse plus some cash for Salty and a good minor league arm. I could easily see that, and I would greatly approve of such a deal.
    Right now, the names and teams you hear most about is Griffey to Atlanta and Dunn to the Dodgers. I'm not at all against dealing both of them,

    I personally think the Griffey, Loshe, and cash for Saltalamacchia and a minor league arm. Any time you can get a 22 year old, switch hitting catcher who can hit and play D you do it. The Braves have McCann, so Salty is expendable. The deal also gives the Braves a back of the rotation guy in Loshe. The trade works for both things, IMO.

    The issue then becomes with trading Dunn. IMO, if you deal Dunn and Griffey you MUST get an OF bat in return. Preferably a right handed one. This team has two legit right handed bats (Phillips and Edwin), and don't have one anywhere close to being ready. Now the Dodgers do have a guy like that they could trade along with an arm (Matt Kemp), but the question is do you want the two studs you get back for Griffey and Dunn to both be position players (Saltalamacchia and Kemp). Now you would still get a 2-3 solid arms in return, but no none of them would be the center of your deals.

    Is that a problem?

    Just for fun, here is a potential defensive alignment.
    LF: (Hopper)????
    CF: Kemp
    RF: Hamilton
    3B: Encarnacion
    SS: Gonzalez
    2B: Phillips
    1B: Votto
    C: Saltalamacchia

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  3. #2
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Where there is smoke there is fire

    Oh, and this was just posted on the Braves website.

    http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/a...=.jsp&c_id=atl



    I've heard the White Sox may be shipping out Mark Buerhle. Do you think the Braves could trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia and maybe another prospect to get him?
    -- Dustin J., Winston Salem, N.C.
    First of all, I don't think it would take more than just Saltalamacchia to get Buerhle. In fact, if I were the Braves, I'd be the ones asking for the extra prospect to be included in that deal.

    Over the next couple of weeks, you're going to hear both Saltalamacchia and Yunel Escobar linked to a number of different trade rumors. They are two of the brightest young stars in the game, and because there isn't currently an availability for either of them to play their natural position at the Major League level, there's definite reason to at least speculate the Braves are shopping them.

    This isn't a definite truth. But Braves general manager John Schuerholz has never been afraid to trade top prospects in the past when he has a chance to fill a definite need. Thus, there's no reason to believe that Saltalamacchia and Escobar are untouchable.

    While saying that, both of them would be made available for a high price tag. In other words, if the Braves are going to deal either of them, it's almost a certainty that they'd be getting a top-caliber starting pitcher in return. In other words, I don't see them leaving unless somebody like Carlos Zambrano or Bartolo Colon is coming to Atlanta in return.

    With Zambrano and Colon in the final year of their contracts, the question from the Braves perspective would be, "Are we willing to give up either of these future superstars for a top starter that might be around only for two months and hopefully the postseason?" My feeling is that for Escobar, the answer would be "maybe" and for Saltalamachia, a resounding "no."

    If the Braves are going to compete for a World Series championship, they must add another quality starter. In actuality, the way things are currently shaping up, they must do so just to stay in the postseason hunt.

    One of the primary reasons Schuerholz was able to construct the improbable run of 14 consecutive division titles came from the fact that he never made a rash decision that would have hurt the future of the franchise.

    His desire to win on a yearly basis may tempt him to trade either Saltalamacchia or Escobar. But his ability to see the big picture will once again prevent him from doing something the organization would regret in the coming years.

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    Re: Where there is smoke there is fire

    I almost posted this in the thread about the Jr. Home Run Tracker Board that is now up in center field but it is more appropriate here. I wonder whether or not Krivsky would pull the trigger on a trade involving Griffey. Assuming the Reds continue their pathetic ways this season and assuming Jr. stays healthy, Griffey's chase for 600 and Homer Bailey will be the only thing that would put some butts in the seats for the duration of the summer. Unless the return is absolutely overwhelming, I don't see the Reds trading Griffey. Personally, for sentimental reasons, I would love to see Jr. pass 600, win a World Series (), and end his career with the Reds, but if I was running the club I wonder if it wouldn't be prudent to get whatever you can for him now. But I would definately want a lot in return and I'm not sure that's possible...
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  5. #4
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Where there is smoke there is fire

    I think this team is closer to contending than alot of people think. An offensive nucleus of Dunn, Hamilton, Encarnacion, Phillips is a good start. Griffey and our 1B combo will be gone, but Bruce and Votto should be able to keep a similar level of production. So catcher and shortstop are the biggest problems - and I think you can definitely compete with Gonzalez as the SS in 2008.

    For the first time in forever the rotation should be a strength. This is dependent on Arroyo getting closer to last's year's performance (around a 4.30 ERA seems reasonable for him) and Homer getting his growing pains out of the way this year. As you said, a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, ? will probably be one of the better ones in the NL.

    We all know about the bullpen. I also couldn't agree more about our bench - this is not the bench of a contending team. But with the extra salary that should be available next season (due to losses of Milton, Lohse, others) I think WK can put together something decent in those areas. Two or three guys from the pen will distinguish themselves this season not as relief aces, but as guys you can count on.

    Going in to next year, we would need a #5 starter (could come from within organization also), two or three bullpen arms, two or three bench guys, and maybe a catcher. This is why I don't want to trade Dunn - I sincerely think we have a chance in 2008, and I don't want to waste the window of Harang and Arroyo pitching well.

    As for Salty, I don't think there's any way the Braves trade him for Griffey and Lohse. Would love to see it happen, but I'm betting they can get much more than that.


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