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Thread: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

  1. #1
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    How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    You know, over the past few years, I've always felt the ONE issue that gets widely ignored at RZ is Adam Dunn's value to the organization. So, I thought I'd start a thread on it to see if any quality discussion could be generated

    OK, I'll cease with the sarcastic tone....

    Seriously, I am amazed at how the "Dunn argument" polarizes the fanbase. It's truly quite interesting.

    I have waffled on this issue so many times, and I think I've finally come to a conclusion. First, a few points:

    --Adam Dunn is "good." Of that, there is no doubt. The question is whether or not he's "pretty good, really good, great, or a cornerstone."

    --I also have no doubt that some of the criticism tossed his way is just a residual effect of playing for a lousy team. When a team stinks, like the Reds have during Dunn's career, it becomes natural to point fingers-- sometimes, those fingers get pointed in the wrong direction.

    --He has definitely been mis-used in terms of line-up placement throughout his career.

    Now, that that is out of the way....

    I have decided that I would be ACTIVELY trying to trade Adam Dunn, and here's why:

    --I am NOT saying that Adam Dunn is not "clutch." But one thing I can't grasp is that how at this point in his career his AB's are still so unpredictable. There seems to be no difference in his approach, no consistency to his results. If the Reds are down 3-2 in the 9th and Dunn comes to bat with a runner on base, I am not thinking, "well, Dunn isn't clutch, so this game is over." What I AM thinking is that I have NO idea what he's going to do. He could hit one 600 feet or he could flail wildly at look miserable doing so.

    IMO, in order for me to consider someone a "star" or a cornerstone, I have to at least get the feeling that the player is going to produce a high quality at bat/approach the majority of the time.

    I know many people here don't view the strikeout as a big deal, but what bothers me is this.....

    Dunn sets K records like they are going out of style. Right now, he has FIFTEEN more K's than the player in the NL with the second most K's. It bothers me that there is NO improvement in this area from Dunn. I understand-- he's a bopper and he gets on base-- and with that comes a higher K rate. OK, no problem. But a K rate THIS high with seemingly NO improvement from season to season? That bothers me.

    His RBI numbers have improved this year, but in the past, I don't think his production has matched his "potential." Again, RBI's have become one of those "grey are" statistics, but they still have some merit to me. If you have runners on first and second with two outs in the 9th, sometimes drawing a walk is NOT the best thing-- assuming of course there were some hittable pitches in the AB.

    I guess in the end, my biggest "problem" with Dunn is that I believe he has reached his ceiling. And I think his ceiling is one of a borderline all-star. His defense doesn't help him any. Borderline all-stars are good to have, no doubt. You can win a lot of games with rosters full of Adam Dunn type players.

    But for the Reds, I think Dunn has run his course. I certainly would not give him away. But I would ABSOLUTELY be shopping him to any team that wanted to part with a good pitching prospect-- preferrably one on the cusp of the majors-- not a major project.

    I would NOT be saying this if I felt Dunn was a star or was a potential star. As others have pointed out, his 3 RBI's in Sept. last year was far from star-worthy.

    Adam Dunn is a good player. We should use that "goodness" to help bolster the farm.

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  3. #2
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post

    Adam Dunn is a good player. We should use that "goodness" to help bolster the farm.
    Good post, Ed. I think Dunn is the best player on this team, even with his considerable flaws.

    IMO, a lot of the angst here and in Cincinnati in general towards Dunn all stems from expectations unmet. He came into the league absolutely on fire, and everyone thought he was the next coming of Bench, Perez, Foster, etc.

    There are actually a much higher percentage of Dunn fans here at RZ, it seems, than in the city. I saw a poll on Lance's site last week- 80% of the fans voted they'd rather have Hopper in LF than Dunn. ...sigh....

    Anyhow, when Dunn proved to be just very good, instead of all-world, a lot of folks in town turned on him. I think the constant losing, year after year, adds to that, to be honest. If this team were winning, Dunn would be considered a "key cog, with his 40 Hr's, 100 runs scored and 100 RBI", instead of a "strikeout machine who can't play LF." Just my 2 cents.

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    IMO, in order for me to consider someone a "star" or a cornerstone, I have to at least get the feeling that the player is going to produce a high quality at bat/approach the majority of the time.

    I would NOT be saying this if I felt Dunn was a star or was a potential star.

    Adam Dunn is a good player. We should use that "goodness" to help bolster the farm.
    Good post...

    Agree totally...

    Said it earlier this week...a talented supporting actor in position to be paid big-time lead actor money...

    This low-budget project cannot make such an investment...


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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    coach-- that is an excellent way of putting it.

    I totally disagree with the folks that put Dunn in the Rob Deer class.

    I also totally disagree with the folks that put Dunn in the consistent all-star class.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Adam Dunn = Vin Diesel

    He IS a leading man, you just have to put him in the right movie. If you cast him in a romantic comedy and expect tear jerking hilarity to ensue, the fault is yours. If you decide you don't want to produce that kind of movie, then fine, ship him elsewhere, but don't sell yourself short because he's Vince Vaughn.

    He is not core of a team that wants to win by preventing and playing small ball. If that's the sort of team Krivsky wants to build, then by all means, get rid of Dunn. However, that doesn't change the fact that Adam Dunn creates more runs offensively than any other person on this team (excluding a healthy KGJ) by a wide margin -- it's not really close. He does deficiencies and if WK is hell-bent on creating a team around him that exacerbates his weaknesses, then fine. But just because he can't make Jennifer Aniston swoon believably doesn't mean he can't carry a film.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-15-2007 at 05:01 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    coach-- that is an excellent way of putting it.

    I totally disagree with the folks that put Dunn in the Rob Deer class.

    I also totally disagree with the folks that put Dunn in the consistent all-star class.
    IMO, Dunn does go in the Deer class because of the "Three True Outcomes." I think Dunn will have a much longer career, mostly because he is more prolific at all three (Ks included, unfortunately).

    You've probably already read this stuff, but just in case you haven't...

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3799

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...true-outcomes/
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Adam Dunn = Vin Diesel

    He IS a leading man, you just have to put him in the right movie. If you cast him in a romantic comedy and expect tear jerking hilarity to ensue, the fault is yours. If you decide you don't want to produce that kind of movie, then fine, ship him elsewhere, but don't sell yourself short because he's Vince Vaughn.

    He is not core of a team that wants to win by preventing and playing small ball. If that's the sort of team Krivsky wants to build, then by all means, get rid of Dunn. However, that doesn't change the fact that Adam Dunn creates more runs offensively than any other person on this team (excluding a healthy KGJ) by a wide margin -- it's not really close. He does deficiencies and if WK is hell-bent on creating a team around him that exacerbates his weaknesses, then fine. But just because he can't make Jennifer Aniston swoon believably doesn't mean he can't carry a film.
    Absolutely LOVE this post. I would, however, like to point out that THE PACIFIER is a vastly underrated Diesel vehicle... not exactly a romantic comedy, but a comedy nevertheless.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    IMO, Dunn does go in the Deer class because of the "Three True Outcomes." I think Dunn will have a much longer career, mostly because he is more prolific at all three (Ks included, unfortunately).

    You've probably already read this stuff, but just in case you haven't...

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3799

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...true-outcomes/
    Actually Deer struck out at a greater rate than Adam Dunn.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Actually Deer struck out at a greater rate than Adam Dunn.
    Okay, well perhaps Adam's just got him beat in the record books as opposed to in the K rate.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Adam Dunn = Vin Diesel

    He IS a leading man, you just have to put him in the right movie. If you cast him in a romantic comedy and expect tear jerking hilarity to ensue, the fault is yours.
    If Adam Dunn = Vin Diesel, then...

    Albert Pujols = Tom Hanks / Solid, A-lister capable of headlining a film by himself with no other talent to speak of. Consistent, versatile and almost never turns in a bad performance.

    David Wright = Ryan Gosling / Talented newcomer with ability to be a leading man in time. With longevity, should be one of the greatest ever. Tantalizing talent.

    Jose Reyes = Jamie Foxx / Another talented newcomer who keeps surprising us with his range. He does multiple things better than most of us do one thing. We find ourselves anxiously awaiting his next move.

    Barry Bonds = Tom Cruise / He is, admittedly, crazy and a pretty unlikeable in person. However, he still headlines a blockbuster as well as anyone in the biz, and he's ultimately going to go down as one of the greats, whether we like it or not. Just check out his career for evidence of this. Almost no one has the track record in the box office that he does. Ever.

    David Eckstein = Adam Sandler / This guy has a very, very limited game, but he makes the most of what he's got. He is the definition of "scrappy" and somehow that makes people want to root for him despite his admittedly limited talent. He's shown remarkable staying power just because he manages to be likeable and funny in places.

    Jason Giambi = Robert Downey, Jr. / Ultimately one of the more talented and likeable actors of his generation, he just keeps succumbing to drugs over and over again. We like him because he's honest about his weakness, but the courts are not so sympathetic to his plight.

    Any others you all can think of?
    Last edited by RedEye; 06-16-2007 at 07:33 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Here's a quiz:

    Who has a higher batting average, Adam Dunn or Josh Hamilton?

    Which Red has made the most outs this year? (It's not Dunn, or Hamilton, for that matter.)

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Here's a quiz:

    Who has a higher batting average, Adam Dunn or Josh Hamilton?

    Which Red has made the most outs this year? (It's not Dunn, or Hamilton, for that matter.)
    Dunn = .268
    Hamilton = .258

    I'll bet Brandon Phillips has made the most outs this year. But it might be Junior.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Dunn = .268
    Hamilton = .258

    I'll bet Brandon Phillips has made the most outs this year. But it might be Junior.
    Brandon Phillips, then Alex Gonzalez.

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    IMO, Dunn does go in the Deer class because of the "Three True Outcomes." I think Dunn will have a much longer career, mostly because he is more prolific at all three (Ks included, unfortunately).

    You've probably already read this stuff, but just in case you haven't...

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3799

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...true-outcomes/
    Not really. Dunn gets lumped with the Deer and Kingman types all the time and it just isn't true. Deer only had 1 full season with an OBP > .340. Deer was more like 2 out of 3 true outcomes.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: How About a Thread About Adam Dunn?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not really. Dunn gets lumped with the Deer and Kingman types all the time and it just isn't true. Deer only had 1 full season with an OBP > .340. Deer was more like 2 out of 3 true outcomes.
    Yep, that's the biggest difference. Dunn has been consistently good at avoiding outs. It's just many of his outs are strikeouts, and those are more memorable than the obligatory pop-out or ground-out to second. And so he is reviled. This is not to say he is a player without faults. He is what he is and that is a major asset and contributor to this ballclub.

    That said, Adam Dunn is the opposite of everything Cincinnati loves in a player. Right or wrong, this town is largely under the impression that if a player simply tries harder, he can become Pete Rose. Pete Rose was a damn good hitter because of his talent, not because he simply tried hard.

    This town does not deserve Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn does not deserve this town. Maybe Adam would be better loved if he stayed at UT and played tight end instead.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

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