The more I think about a potential Dunn trade, the more I believe that the chances of Dunn actually being dealt this season are actually fairly low. I've taken a look at a bunch of teams in the race who may be able to use Dunn, and I actually don't see many fits at all. And of the teams who actually do have a great fit, their organization isn't the type to value a player of his skill set.
- I don't see the Reds dealing Dunn to an NL Central team. I could be wrong, but I just don't see that type of major deal happening between division rivals.
- The White Sox and Orioles are falling apart. Scratch them off the list.
- The Red Sox need a center fielder, not so much a corner outfielder (unless the corner outfielder is also a great defensive player whereby they'd shift Drew to center field). Unless Ortiz and/or Ramirez end up with a major injury, I don't see Dunn going to Boston.
- The Tigers need bullpen help.
- The Indians need all sorts of pitching help, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
- The Mariners offense isn't great shakes, but they need pitching and lots of it.
- The Phillies need all sorts of pitching help.
- The Mets already have Moises Alou and Shawn Green.
So who does that leave? The Dodgers, the Angels, the Padres, the Athletics, the Yankees, and the Braves?
The Dodgers may have a nice fit for Dunn. The problem is Dunn just isn't their type of player. The Dodgers used to maintain a front office that would have salivated over Dunn, but they managed to run those guys right out of town.
As for the Angels, they just got Garret Anderson back. It won't matter to them that Anderson has a lousy .265 on-base percentage, because Anderson is a proven Angel veteran. Stoneman won't have the stones to ante up for Dunn, and the Angels will be content with whatever Anderson provides. Plus, as long as Reggie Willits keeps on putting up a .400 on-base percentage in left field, the Angels may not need Dunn as much as some other people think they need him.
FWIW, if I've seen Ervin Santana's name on this forum once, I've seen it 1,000 times. As far as I'm concerned, Santana can stay in California because I have very little interest in him as a pitcher if the Angels actually do pony up an offer.
The Braves may be in on Dunn, but I have a sneaky feeling that Griffey could be a better fit for Atlanta than Dunn. Atlanta is one of the few places I could see Griffey waiving his no-trade clause for, and he'd presumably cost less than Dunn insofar as a return goes.
The Padres could use his bat, and they have an organization that would appreciate the type of bat Dunn provides. The problem is they could be petrified of Dunn's defense out in Petco, and it's one of a few stadiums where that fear could be legitimate. Peavy and Young accumulate nice strikeout numbers, but the rest of their rotation relies heavily on the San Diego defense.
The A's are in the same boat as the Padres; their strength has been their defense, and their pitching staff strikes out even less guys than San Diego's. I'm sure Beane would love to have Dunn, especially at a bargain price, but I'm not sure I see the fit here. Then again depending on the type of return Krivsky is asking, Beane could take Dunn and run, then work out a fit later. In a weird way, I actually see the A's as being the #2 potential suitor for Dunn right now.
And lastly, the Yankees, who I see as the #1 potential suitor for Dunn right now. Of course, the Yankees' problem is they could use more pitching rather than more offense, and I suspect that they'll go after pitching first and foremost. But if they can't find pitching, or if they're not happy with whatever pitching they do land, and if Giambi talked himself into not playing again in 2007, then I could see Yankees clamoring for Dunn as their big time acquisition this season.
Again, though, that's just my feeling on the Dunn take. If Krivsky wants to get rid of Dunn at whatever cost, he'll likely be gone. If Krivsky is actually looking for a legitimate return for Dunn, I envision Dunn being in a Reds uniform still on August 1st.
To me, guys like Kyle Lohse and David Weathers have a bunch of potential fits out there, because a lot of teams need pitching badly. If I'm Wayne Krivsky, I'm dangling Lohse and Weathers out there above everyone's heads trying to find some hidden gem.