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Thread: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

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    Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Trade Dunn for 2 middle relief pitchers? Good night, we were playing pretty well last year until the trade
    (worst one in recent history IMO) and now we want to trade Dunn for MRPs. I am still at a loss at why we traded away 2 starters for 2 MRPs. Was supposed to help us to contend and it sent us down the drain, haven't been the same since!
    Last edited by macro; 06-20-2007 at 08:35 AM. Reason: Clarification of thread title

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    Re: Didn't we learn ....

    anything but 2 top prospects will be a disaster

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigredfan#1 View Post
    Trade Dunn for 2 middle relief pitchers? Good night, we were playing pretty well last year until the trade
    (worst one in recent history IMO) and now we want to trade Dunn for MRPs. I am still at a loss at why we traded away 2 starters for 2 MRPs. Was supposed to help us to contend and it sent us down the drain, haven't been the same since!
    It was a RUMOR on 1530 Homer. I'd hardly say the Reds are set on such a deal.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    How are the players we gave up doing?

    Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
    Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

    What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

    What about players that took their spots?

    Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
    Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

    Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

    Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    How are the players we gave up doing?

    Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
    Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

    What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

    What about players that took their spots?

    Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
    Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

    Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

    Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.
    Well said. I am as unenamored with the trade last year as the next guy, but it's not like we gave up Ruth and Maris. Those guys each had their own individual red flags (each discussed here ad nauseum) and are not playing well this year. That limited, I am sure, what teams were willing to trade for them last year. In the end, the trade was as much about payroll flexibility this year than acquiring relief pitching.

    However, I expect Dunn to continue to be an offense force in the future and see no reason to sell him for $.30 on the dollar.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Anyone who objectively looks at last year's numbers cannot blame the lack of Kearns and Lopez in the lineup for failing to make the playoffs. I did a breakdown of the batting averages last year from late August (when the Reds had imrpoved on their pre-trade record and were in a dead heat with St. Louis) to the end of the season. Dunn, Griff., Hatte, Phillips, EE, and Ross were all in huge slumps - many batting below .200. Meanwhile, Aurilla (who got most of the SS starts during that period) and Denorfia (who split with Freel for the extra outfield spot) hit better than Kearns and Lopez before the trade.

    There is just no evidence to support the position that not having Kearns and Lopez cost us a playoff spot last year. It is one of those fallacies that gets repeated so often, it is taken as truth.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by muethibp View Post
    Well said. I am as unenamored with the trade last year as the next guy, but it's not like we gave up Ruth and Maris. Those guys each had their own individual red flags (each discussed here ad nauseum) and are not playing well this year. That limited, I am sure, what teams were willing to trade for them last year. In the end, the trade was as much about payroll flexibility this year than acquiring relief pitching.

    However, I expect Dunn to continue to be an offense force in the future and see no reason to sell him for $.30 on the dollar.
    Fair enough, that said however...what if as an organazation decision the Reds decided to part ways with Dunn. Would you rather the Reds sell him on the cheap, or go the JimB route ala Soriano. I hope for the best return/decision to be made with Dunn of course, but the fact is, if the Reds decide to part ways, the market will mainly dictate the return on Dunn. Krivsky just has to make the best move with the options at hand.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Fair enough, that said however...what if as an organazation decision the Reds decided to part ways with Dunn. Would you rather the Reds sell him on the cheap, or go the JimB route ala Soriano. I hope for the best return/decision to be made with Dunn of course, but the fact is, if the Reds decide to part ways, the market will mainly dictate the return on Dunn. Krivsky just has to make the best move with the options at hand.
    If the decision is that we don't want him to be a part of the future, then, of course, it's better to trade him than let him walk. That's uncontroversial. On balance I don't think we would make that decision at this point given the enormous hole that would be left in the middle of the lineup.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by muethibp View Post
    If the decision is that we don't want him to be a part of the future, then, of course, it's better to trade him than let him walk. That's uncontroversial. On balance I don't think we would make that decision at this point given the enormous hole that would be left in the middle of the lineup.
    Whether or not the Reds try to resign Dunn is a valid debate...no doubt. However...Dunn has some pull in this as well...if he wants out he is gone and if the Reds get a signal from him that he is a goner or if they decide to part ways, what people need to realize is this is a situation different from the Kearns/Lopez trade. It could be a situation where the Reds just have to get what they can for Dunn and leave it at that. In that case, it would be unfair to criticize the low return IF in fact that is what happens. Look around all the threads on the board and everyone is putting their stake in that the Reds have to get a good return...it all will depend on how bad Dunn is wanted by the other teams, not so much Wayne Krivsky...but as said before, Krivsky just has to make the best decision with the options availble.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Whether or not the Reds try to resign Dunn is a valid debate...no doubt. However...Dunn has some pull in this as well...if he wants out he is gone and if the Reds get a signal from him that he is a goner or if they decide to part ways, what people need to realize is this is a situation different from the Kearns/Lopez trade. It could be a situation where the Reds just have to get what they can for Dunn and leave it at that. In that case, it would be unfair to criticize the low return IF in fact that is what happens. Look around all the threads on the board and everyone is putting their stake in that the Reds have to get a good return...it all will depend on how bad Dunn is wanted by the other teams, not so much Wayne Krivsky...but as said before, Krivsky just has to make the best decision with the options availble.
    Again, you're right. With Dunn people are guilty, like always, of overvaluing your own player. With Dunn's contract situation, a team either has to resign him to a very big number (and how many teams out there would do that?) or be aware that he can walk at the end of the year. Teams are not in the habit of sacrificing a top level prospect, let alone multiple prospects that people seem to think he could bring for either (1) the right to pay a defensively and conditioning challenged slugger $75 million over 5 years or (2) a 3 month rent-a-player.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    How are the players we gave up doing?

    Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
    Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

    What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

    What about players that took their spots?

    Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
    Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

    Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

    Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.
    Look at where Lopez and Kearns are playing. RFK. They did well when Washington came to Cincinnati and I'm sure they'd be doing well right now if they were still here. Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors. Plus Lopez gave us a solid lead off hitter which we do not have one.
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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors.
    As has been mentioned before, errors is not the sole basis of judging a player's defense. Even when considering the errors, Lopez is nowhere near the defensive SS that Gonzo is. The left side of the infield is much stronger this season than it has been for several years because of Gonzo.

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    As has been mentioned before, errors is not the sole basis of judging a player's defense. Even when considering the errors, Lopez is nowhere near the defensive SS that Gonzo is. The left side of the infield is much stronger this season than it has been for several years because of Gonzo.
    I agree but Gonzo isn't having a good year in the field. He's made some awesome catches though.
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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    Look at where Lopez and Kearns are playing. RFK. They did well when Washington came to Cincinnati and I'm sure they'd be doing well right now if they were still here. Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors. Plus Lopez gave us a solid lead off hitter which we do not have one.
    OPS+ is park adjusted.

    AGon OPS+: 98
    FeLo OPS+: 67

    Getting on base.

    AGon OBP: .306
    FeLo OBP: .282

    note, FeLo OPS is 767 hitting second versus 606 when leading off. AGon hasn't hit lead off for the Reds this year but he's OPSing 1.084 in the two-spot.

    Errors at SS.

    AGon errors at SS (12) projected to 162 games (played 65): 27
    FeLo errors at SS (5) projected to 162 games (played 26): 30

    I dunno...Felipe is 6/12 compared to Alex's 0/1 in stolen bases.

    I _would_ like to have 2005 Felipe playing second base though!

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    Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    I agree but Gonzo isn't having a good year in the field. He's made some awesome catches though.
    Well, I just have to continue to disagree. There are a lot of aspects of playing SS and Gonzo is good at all of them. He is above average at turning a double play for example, something some fans don't recognize because all they see is 11 errors. The positives that Gonzo brings to the table at SS far outweigh the 11 errors he's made so far.


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