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Thread: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

    Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

    Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.
    Was it really DanO and Krivsky who actually made the real decisions?
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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Because I'm a Reds fan I hope the 2006 draft does turn out better than those of 2004 and 2005, and the 2007 one much better than all of the above--because if those things happen, we'll be good. But I really don't see how the 2006 draft can even be estimated yet as the players who seem strongest from that draft are only doing exactly what one would expect from them, given the relatively low levels at which they're playing. There's one exception, and he's actually starting to give me more hope in the 2006 draft than I had--and that's Dorn, who's hitting the ball hard at Sarasota. Watson had tremendous K-BB numbers at Dayton and is very promising. Let's see what he does at Sarasota. Valaika's success at Dayton really doesn't indicate a whole lot, Stubbs' struggles there mean a whole lot more (and, again, I hope Stubbs straightens it out and becomes an All-Star CF). On O'Brien's drafts, there's also danger in underestimating Craig Tatum, who has really started to hit, and it's worth pointing out that Travis Wood is pitching at Sarasota (and last night, I believe, pitching d--- well) two years out of high school (that's high school, not college). Don't forget such other O'Brien signees as Carlos Fisher and Johnny Cueto, and I for one certainly wish we had Zach Ward back (check out his ground outs to fly outs ratio) as well as Justin Germano, picked up of course by Dan. Just think how much sense it would have made last year to keep Germano and Ward, let the Twins pay 4 million to Lohse and the Phillies 2+ to Rheal Cormier.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Was it really DanO and Krivsky who actually made the real decisions?
    Not at all. From everything I have read, the general managers for nearly all teams have very little to do with the actual drafting of the players.

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

    Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.
    I highly doubt the 2006 draft will be looked upon as a better draft than the 2005 draft.
    2005 Draft went Jay Bruce (Top 5 prospect in baseball and no one in the 2006 draft will ever reach this status), Travis Wood (20 years old, A+, good strikeout numbers, solid hit per 9 numbers. inconsistant at times though), Zach Ward (traded, but 23 years old, A+, 3.18 ERA, fewer hits than ip, over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings, 3-1 groundball to flyball rate).

    2006 went Drew Stubbs (while even I am higher on him than most everyone on this board, he still wouldnt rank ahead of Wood or Bruce), Sean Watson (very good pitcher, still unsure if he gets bumped ahead of Travis Wood though on the prospect list given they are at the same level and if I were to look at each players arsenal Travis at least throws 3 pitches while Sean basically throws his fastball and his knuckle curve. Travis also has his change up, which is the best change up in the minor leagues. Sean can't say that about any of his pitches). Third round was Chris Valaika (who is performing very well, but is still in low A. He is probably somewhere in the 5-7 range on the Reds prospect list mixed in there with Wood and Watson).

    Give me Bruce, Wood and Ward easily over Stubbs, Watson and Valaika. Its not even a close race. Heck, to be honest give me Bruce over the 2006 first 3 round guys, because he is closer than them all, much better than them all and a lot more likely to pan out. Did I mention he is nearly a year and a half younger than them all?

    As for the 2005 draft.... Szymanski is the only one of the first 3 rounds that has not performed. Tatum is hitting .320 and slugging over .500 in the FSL and was just promoted to Chattanooga. I don't have to tell you about Homer Bailey, but again, the 2006 class doesn't have anyone in the same class as Homer Bailey in terms of talent, just like they didnt in the 2005 class with Bruce.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not at all. From everything I have read, the general managers for nearly all teams have very little to do with the actual drafting of the players.



    I highly doubt the 2006 draft will be looked upon as a better draft than the 2005 draft.
    2005 Draft went Jay Bruce (Top 5 prospect in baseball and no one in the 2006 draft will ever reach this status), Travis Wood (20 years old, A+, good strikeout numbers, solid hit per 9 numbers. inconsistant at times though), Zach Ward (traded, but 23 years old, A+, 3.18 ERA, fewer hits than ip, over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings, 3-1 groundball to flyball rate).

    2006 went Drew Stubbs (while even I am higher on him than most everyone on this board, he still wouldnt rank ahead of Wood or Bruce), Sean Watson (very good pitcher, still unsure if he gets bumped ahead of Travis Wood though on the prospect list given they are at the same level and if I were to look at each players arsenal Travis at least throws 3 pitches while Sean basically throws his fastball and his knuckle curve. Travis also has his change up, which is the best change up in the minor leagues. Sean can't say that about any of his pitches). Third round was Chris Valaika (who is performing very well, but is still in low A. He is probably somewhere in the 5-7 range on the Reds prospect list mixed in there with Wood and Watson).

    Give me Bruce, Wood and Ward easily over Stubbs, Watson and Valaika. Its not even a close race. Heck, to be honest give me Bruce over the 2006 first 3 round guys, because he is closer than them all, much better than them all and a lot more likely to pan out. Did I mention he is nearly a year and a half younger than them all?

    As for the 2005 draft.... Szymanski is the only one of the first 3 rounds that has not performed. Tatum is hitting .320 and slugging over .500 in the FSL and was just promoted to Chattanooga. I don't have to tell you about Homer Bailey, but again, the 2006 class doesn't have anyone in the same class as Homer Bailey in terms of talent, just like they didnt in the 2005 class with Bruce.
    Not to pick nits, but Tatum is 24 years old and still in A ball. I would hope a top 3 round pick could hit like that. That said, I agree with most of what you said. The 2005 draft is clearly the cream of the crop.
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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Tatum was promoted to Chattanooga?

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Not to pick nits, but Tatum is 24 years old and still in A ball. I would hope a top 3 round pick could hit like that. That said, I agree with most of what you said. The 2005 draft is clearly the cream of the crop.
    He is now in AA. He was promoted after yesterdays game according to a parent of a Sarasota Reds player.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    good to hear. Hopefully he can hit in AA too.
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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He is now in AA. He was promoted after yesterdays game according to a parent of a Sarasota Reds player.
    Thanks for that update Doug. Let's hope he continues hitting against better competition. The Reds could use a good hitting catcher or two in the system.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Thanks for that update Doug. Let's hope he continues hitting against better competition. The Reds could use a good hitting catcher or two in the system.
    They currently have two catchers hitting very well actually. Tatum as we have discussed and then Ryan Hanigan is currently in AA and has put up a .299/.404/.426 line which is very solid. He is going to turn 27 this year, but he is hitting very well.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    I was just about to ask you about Hanigan. What are the plans for him now that Tatum is in Chattanooga?

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    I would hope that he is heading to Louisville. The current catchers in Louisville are all pretty poor hitters.

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    Re: Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)

    My how Miguel Perez's stock has fallen. Once thought to be the catcher of the future for the Reds, now I'd imagine he'd have some work and growing to do just to be a MLB backup. Many raved about his defense (and still do), I didn't see it when I saw him play in Dayton. He had lazy footwork and seemed to take plays off and lose mental concentration. Admittedly that was a couple years ago (I wasn't that impressed with Felix Pie when he played in the Midwest league either), so Perez could have further developed and improved, I just never saw the love of his defensive game.
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