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Thread: Narron RIP and WORMs?

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Narron RIP and WORMs?

    There's been a growing cry for Narron to be replaced both from local sports talk radio and the fan base in general. The Orioles were the first team to pull the trigger on a beleaguered manager. Both that and the O's pursuit of Girardi have only turned up the heat on Narron. Perhaps Castro PHing for Hamilton in the 9th against the As perhaps may have been the last straw for Reds fans who were on the fence about Narron.

    In my mind, the calls for Narron to be fired beg the question that Narron has significantly impacted the Reds record. Basically it assumes Narron is an anchor and someone else could've righted the ship. Just how much impact does a manager have though? I'd be interested in knowing how many losses people think Narron should be on the hook for (this is an honest question). Or to ask it another way, how many wins better would the Reds be with any other manager available? Basically what is Narron's WORM (wins over replacement manager) and why do you think that?

    Obviously this isn't high powered sabermetrics. For the sake of this discussion assume that a replacement level manager would basically be roughly equal to the type of guy that fills the interim role following a managerial firing. If Narron is worse than that in your mind, give him a negative number of wins. If he's better, give him a positive number of wins etc. Hopefully this discussion will help develop a context in which to judge Narron rather than more of the usual venting that we often do.
    Last edited by jojo; 06-22-2007 at 11:46 AM.
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I think the difference is minimal, like 1 or 2 games. But I think in the future, it is costing us more and more. His inability to manage a young bullpen, or young players. Not letting Hamilton get experience vs. LH pitchers. Running Arroyo out there for 130 pitches, and Harang is around the top 3 in pitches per start. He is trying to kill our pitchers. The abuse they take this year, is going to be a huge factor in the remaining years of their contracts.

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    See, I think a 'good' manager can make a big difference here. I think Narron has a negative "WORM" [or a "WURM, Wins Under replacement Manager] and if we had a 'good' manager with a positive "WORM" it could be worth 5-7 wins.

    Ie Narrons costs the team 2 or 3 wins a year and a 'good' manager could gain the team 3 or 4 wins a year over a league average manager for a swing of 5-7 to the positive.

    I use the term good subjectively.

    Though that could be the 'idiot' in me.
    Last edited by Joseph; 06-22-2007 at 12:03 PM.

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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I don't think the issue is whether Narron costs wins in 2007. Narron tries very hard to win each game, often too hard, and this leads to overuse of pitchers, lefty/righty switches that may not benefit young players, etc.

    I think the fault has been the organization's failure to recognize that the mission now is to groom young talent for the future. Even Castellini's recent comment to the effect that "we'll be better with Guardado" conveys an incorrect perception of where this team is at. For weeks, now, Narron should have been principally focused on development of young players. The current team is obviously going nowhere.

    So, without lauding Narron's performance, I think the issue is less his personal managing style and more the organization's emphasis. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, the top brass will instruct Narron to manage for the future.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-22-2007 at 12:13 PM.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I've been thinking about this a little here and there so my opinion probably isn't very well developed yet. However, I'm not sure any manager could've won with this team. Chris Jaffe did a study on managers recently and he had favorable comments for Narron (here's a related thread). I think Narron probably is an average manager whose success like most managers depends upon his personnel.

    Being an Ms fan, I'd trade Hargrove for Narron in a heartbeat. The Reds fan in me wouldn't do that deal.

    Guess if forced too, I'd say Narron is a game or two better than an interim manager.

    I think there are far worse managers in the majors right now, and they are regarded more highly because their teams win inspite of them. Maybe Narron's bad luck is that he happens to have a roster that exposes his deficiencies.
    Last edited by jojo; 06-22-2007 at 12:19 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't think the issue is whether Narron costs wins in 2007. Narron tries very hard to win each game, often too hard, and this leads to overuse of pitchers, lefty/righty switches that may not benefit young players, etc.

    I think the fault has been the organization's failure to recognize that the mission now is to groom young talent for the future. Even Castellini's recent comment to the effect that "we'll be better with Guardado" conveys an incorrect perception of where this team is at. For weeks, now, Narron should have been principally focused on development of young players. The current team is obviously going nowhere.

    So, without lauding Narron's performance, I think the issue is less his personal managing style and more the organization's emphasis. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, the top brass will instruct Narron to manage for the future.
    I wish I had written that.

    The biggest thing a manager can do is have the right 8 guys in his starting lineup. After that have the right 5 guys in his rotation, then the right 25 guys on his roster and finally he can run his bullpen well.

    While I can quibble about the end of his bench, I have to really get down to the fourth option there and while I've been very critical of Narron's management of the pen.....That's not the reason they're 20 games below 500.

    The organization didn't understand where it was in the offseason.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I think the larger question the organization must ask itself is "Where do we go from here?"

    2007 ain't happening. Kiss it goodbye. Perhaps the club can recover to play a better brand of baseball in the second half, but the folks upstairs need to realize what they attempted this year didn't work and that it's likely a fool's errand to attempt it again.

    As for Narron, the determination needs to be made whether he's the guy to manage the club in whatever new direction it's taking. Chances are he isn't. If that's the determination, then it's time to can him and turn the team over to a caretaker until a permanent replacement can be found.

    From Krivsky's standpoint, keeping the manager he inherited wasn't particularly smart to begin with. GMs, particularly Reds GMs, have short shelf lives. Time to start hunting for your guy Wayne.
    Last edited by M2; 06-22-2007 at 12:37 PM.
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    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    I think the difference is minimal, like 1 or 2 games. But I think in the future, it is costing us more and more. His inability to manage a young bullpen, or young players. Not letting Hamilton get experience vs. LH pitchers. Running Arroyo out there for 130 pitches, and Harang is around the top 3 in pitches per start. He is trying to kill our pitchers. The abuse they take this year, is going to be a huge factor in the remaining years of their contracts.
    I agree. If John McGraw or Joe McCarthy or Sparky Anderson or Earl Weaver were managing the Reds, they would still probably have a losing record. My concern with Narron is more that he reduces the chances of the Reds being a contender in 2009.
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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I don't think Krivsky and BCasts inability to to recognize the lack of 'compete now' ability this team had is an excuse for Narron's mismanagement of whats there.

    Yes he couldn't help that WK wouldn't give him Homer when he wanted, but I'd wager dollars to donuts Narron was a driving force behind the acquisition of some of these veterans that aren't getting it done as well as the continued presence of Castro and Moeller on the bench.

    I'd even wager listening to Narron too much is one of WK's biggest faults. That's just my perception, gut feeling, what have you.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    I had a huge post written out with examples and all that. But I think I can sum it up quite easily.

    Macro > Micro.

    Create an environment where every player can excel to the best of their ability, don't get your players hurt, and don't overthink on a day to day basis.

    The gains on the margins from in-game management choices are minuscule compared to the influence of an injured ace or breakout rookie who was handled properly. Sure, on balance, I want the guy who puts OBP at the top of the lineup, who doesn't sacrifice in the first inning, takes a mid-level starter out after 97 pitches and a wild but scoreless 6th inning, and isn't afraid to throw his closer in the 8th inning of a tie game.

    But more than any of that, just don't screw things up. Give me a manager who can get along with team's best players, keeps them healthy and in the lineup, and doesn't cost me too many games with his micro level decisions. Given that, I'll spend the rest of my time trying to improve the team he has to work with.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    IMO I think Narron has cost the reds from 5-10 wins this season. The problem is its hard to measure a manager. You cant look at one event and point that to a loss. However you can look at a number of things as see how they put together make a club worse. Some of the things I dislike about Narron are his inability to back up his players on the field, especially the younger ones. For example when Edwin was struggling it seemed like he was getting a lot of marginal calls that went against him. Narron never went out and argued for him. This is one of my biggest complaints of Narron. The good managers are the ones that go out and are ejected for the mear fact of taking the side of his player.

    Another thing I hate about Narron is that he always makes excuses for why the team loses. I get sick and tired of hearing "Well they hit a good pitch" or "Thats just baseball". Enough with the excuses I would much rather have manager come out and go Leyland or Pinella on the team than make excuses like Narron.

    I think his management of the bullpen has been out right criminal. He seems to put his players in positions that they are uncomfortable with. How many times was Coffey run out in a close game only to fail over and over again? How many times was Count kept in the game for a rh batter too long?

    Your top run producer Dunn (whether you like him or not) hitting sixth protected by the likes of Ross, Castro, Gonzo, and Moeller give him absolutly no protection. Pitchers can pitch around Dunn to get to one of the many weak hitting 7 and 8 hole hitters.

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    Will Narron being fired improve this current team? No. Maybe somebody else could get the most out of them, but then again maybe not. Maybe Jerry is..don't know...don't really care.

    What getting rid of Narron does is allows this team to focus on the future....get somebody in here (Girardi?) to have "extra spring training" to see what currently is good, and what currently is not, so come this offseason, the Reds can make the right moves....part of this is on Krivsky being willing to have someone in here who may stand up to him and take charge....I don't think Jerry Narron is that guy.

    Honestly, watching Jerry Narron manage on Sunday was the last straw for me...pinch hitting Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton, and then giving the reasons he did as to why he did it, is a sure sign that he really has no business managing a major league baseball team.


    Jerry Narron is not part of the future of this baseball team....so it's time to stop pretending he is....pull the trigger, get a leader in here, and move on.


    Every day from here on out that Jerry Narron keeps his job is a waste of our time, this organizations time, and his time.
    Last edited by Matt700wlw; 06-22-2007 at 02:59 PM.

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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    As bad as Narron's been it's hard for a manager to have a 5-10 negative game effect in just under a half season. 3-4 games is probably more likely although i don't really have any specific instances to site. My worry is that he'll do something stupid with the pitchers and get one of them hurt.
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    Four games would put the Reds fourth instead of sixth, a game and a half out of second.

    It is hard to measure, but would a season-long lineup that had Griffey, Dunn and Encarnacion in a row performed better? I think so. Could the pitching be managed better in the seventh and eighth innings? I think he was doomed no matter what he did. Could the players have overachieved for someone else? Possibly.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Narron RIP and WORMs?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    IMO I think Narron has cost the reds from 5-10 wins this season. The problem is its hard to measure a manager. You cant look at one event and point that to a loss. However you can look at a number of things as see how they put together make a club worse. Some of the things I dislike about Narron are his inability to back up his players on the field, especially the younger ones. For example when Edwin was struggling it seemed like he was getting a lot of marginal calls that went against him. Narron never went out and argued for him. This is one of my biggest complaints of Narron. The good managers are the ones that go out and are ejected for the mear fact of taking the side of his player.

    Another thing I hate about Narron is that he always makes excuses for why the team loses. I get sick and tired of hearing "Well they hit a good pitch" or "Thats just baseball". Enough with the excuses I would much rather have manager come out and go Leyland or Pinella on the team than make excuses like Narron.

    I think his management of the bullpen has been out right criminal. He seems to put his players in positions that they are uncomfortable with. How many times was Coffey run out in a close game only to fail over and over again? How many times was Count kept in the game for a rh batter too long?

    Your top run producer Dunn (whether you like him or not) hitting sixth protected by the likes of Ross, Castro, Gonzo, and Moeller give him absolutly no protection. Pitchers can pitch around Dunn to get to one of the many weak hitting 7 and 8 hole hitters.

    I don't know. Five to ten wins implies his decisions have cost the Reds between 50 and 100 runs. I'm thinking that's getting close to the point where it's hyperbole to suggest even a GM can cause that much damage in less than half a season without something tantamount to a fire sale.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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