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Thread: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

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    Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    For a Reds club that is underperforming its Pythagorean projections by a substantial margin (roughly five to eight wins this year), the subject of Pythagoreans W/Ls has been barely broached on RedsZone, if at all.

    Compare this year to last, when there were a handful of daily threads from May through August using Pythagorean projections to describe the Reds and their chances. So why has this been a non-issue this year?

    Is it a tired subject?

    Or is it that Pythagorean projections are less meaningful when a sub-mediocre team looks good, as opposed to when a sub-mediocre team looks atrocious?

    Or is it that the stakes are lower this year, and therefore, it really doesn't matter at this point?

    Or have people accepted high Pythagorean variances (in either direction) as a fact of life in GABP?

    Or have Reds fans been conditioned to be skeptical and assume the worst-case scenario?

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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Last year the Pythagorean projestions indicated we were worse than our record. Many posters were quick to jump on that thread.

    This year, it shows were aren't as bad as we have looked. You are correct, most have no interest in hearing that.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Perhaps it's the nature of the beast - I've always struggled with the concept because the only thing that matters ultimately is what actually happens. And yet, I've taken some solace from the fact that the Phythag says we should be better - not that it does any good - we're still stinking up the universe!

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Last year the Pythagorean projestions indicated we were worse than our record. Many posters were quick to jump on that thread.

    This year, it shows were aren't as bad as we have looked. You are correct, most have no interest in hearing that.
    Yeah, no one here wants the Reds to win ballgames.

    They're currently 5 wins behind Pythag. If you discount the 16-1 blasting of the Mariners on Friday, they're 3 wins behind. At this point, it's the difference between being the worst team in baseball and being *among* the worst teams in baseball. Nothing to get too excited about either way.
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Perhaps it's the nature of the beast - I've always struggled with the concept because the only thing that matters ultimately is what actually happens. And yet, I've taken some solace from the fact that the Phythag says we should be better - not that it does any good - we're still stinking up the universe!
    In some small way, it's comforting to me as well. Whether it's rational or not, it allows me to have increased hope for next year. That could all change with a few poor deadline deals. For now, I'll take anything even remotely optimistic. An underperforming trainwreck of a team has to be better than an overperforming one, right?

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    I'll go back to what I said when the Reds' run differential was still in the plus column - "Sometimes you catch your pythag, sometimes your pythag catches you."

    The way this Reds team plays baseball it's pythag will be chasing it right down a rabbit hole for the rest of the season.
    Last edited by M2; 06-25-2007 at 04:53 PM.
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    They're currently 5 wins behind Pythag. If you discount the 16-1 blasting of the Mariners on Friday, they're 3 wins behind. .

    Can we discount when we lose by 10 runs also?

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'll go back to what I said when the Reds' run differential was still in the plus column - "Sometimes you catch your pythag, sometimes your pythag catches you."

    The way this Reds team plays baseball it's pythag will be chasing it right down a rabbit hole for the rest of the season.
    So this quote:

    "Sometimes you catch your pythag, sometimes your pythag catches you."
    basically means nothing. That's like saying "Sometimes the pythag is right and sometimes it's wrong." Sweet theory.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Can we discount when we lose by 10 runs also?
    Sure can. And it has nearly as much impact, which is little impact at all.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    The Reds' current pythag projection has them as pretty much an 89-90 loss team. Those types of teams are just bad teams no matter which way you look at it. Last season, they had a pythag projection of 86 losses, and while the pythag projections are somewhat close, it's still on a current pace to go 35 runs in the wrong direction.

    Granted, Bronson Arroyo was great last season. But for whatever reason, whether it's regression, Narron abuse, something else, or some combo, Arroyo stinks this season. But his level of stink so far was unexpected by most everyone, I'm sure.

    However, one thing the 2007 Reds do have that the 2006 Reds didn't have (and realistically, the 2008 Reds won't have) is an aging Hall of Famer putting up one of the best single seasons for an outfielder of his age in the history of baseball. Ken Griffey, Jr. created 63 runs last season, but this season he's on a pace to create nearly 120 runs (he already has 57 runs created). As great as it is to watch him hit, we know that it's unrealistic to expect him to keep performing at such an historic level. Griffey's production could drop into being merely "good" during the second half of 2007 and/or the 2008 season and the offense would lose a huge engine in run production (that's really a sign of how great he's been this season).

    Considering how great Griffey's been and how much offense he's generated this season that he didn't generate last season, it's mind boggling how this team is still managing to be 35 runs worse this season compared to last season.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    That's like saying "Sometimes the pythag is right and sometimes it's wrong." Sweet theory.
    I guess if you were to take what I said and reduce it to something that's not particularly what I meant, sure.
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    basically means nothing. That's like saying "Sometimes the pythag is right and sometimes it's wrong." Sweet theory.

    Blame Raisor. It's his theory.
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I guess if you were to take what I said and reduce it to something that's not particularly what I meant, sure.
    Yeah, but what does it mean? I don't think I reduced it to anything. The way I see it, it means that sometimes you are better than your pythag and sometime you aren't. With that in mind, it will even out by the end. Which means, to me, that it isn't a very good assessor of a team's success or future success. Which means it is semi-useless to useless.

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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Yeah, but what does it mean? I don't think I reduced it to anything. The way I see it, it means that sometimes you are better than your pythag and sometime you aren't. With that in mind, it will even out by the end. Which means, to me, that it isn't a very good assessor of a team's success or future success. Which means it is semi-useless to useless.
    Golly, any temptation I might have had to explain the concept has left me.
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    Re: Pythagorean Projected Wins and Losses

    The pythag will correct itself i suppose. A bigger problem is evaluating this team and where they are at on a macro level.

    Some evals have this team being middle of the road pitching wise with really poor hitting. If we were to grade it out -the pitching would be about 60 on a (1-100 scale-relative to other teams). The offense being about a 35 (1-100 scale).

    You factor in the DER and it's clear that the pitching is not the problem. If the pitching has an average DER to work with -they are pushed up to a 65-69 scale. That's not bad at all, yet if you look around here and listen to the radio/tv guys --it seems as if the pitching is the problem when in reality it's the offense and defense.

    It's going to take a smart GM to factor out all the haze and clearly evaluate this team -he/she will have to factor out the always extreme pythag based on a high park factor. It'll always be difficult to know what exactly is going on.

    Btw, it seems like pitchers go to other parks and do better-while the hitters leave and struggle...that ought to clue the gm in on what is happening.

    Lastly, i wish Narron would look at things on a macro level. He gets 12 stacks of stats and throws them all away except 1 (reported in the Dayton Daily News). He could look at things over a 3 yr. period, but from his quote it's clear he looks at this years numbers (with small, small sample sizes) and reports it's all too silly to look at anything else. This is the worst kind of analysis. The GM needs to explain to him how things look on a macro level. Can he?


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