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Thread: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Ross has certinally been stinking it up at the plate this year. No argument there (however, he's been warming up latley). I fully admit that this discussion is largely choosing death by hanging versus firing squad. Also, if we could wave a wand and bring Pudge to town, then this is mostly wasted bandwidth. But lets look at what we had to work with.

    But between Ross, Javy and LaRue, did we really give up the wrong guy? Let's start out behind the plate.

    Code:
            E   FPCT  RF    ZR   PB  SB  CS  CS%    Salary 
    Ross    3  .993  7.52 .867   5   18  17 .486    $1,600,000
    LaRue   1  .993  5.54 .000   1   13  5  .278    $5,450,000
    Javy V  1  .988  6.14 1.000  1   11  0  .000    $1,250,000
    LaRue was on a 15 day DL and has cost KC just under twice as much as Javy and Ross combined. Ross has 3 errors but considerably more playing time than either LaRue or Javy. Ross's biggest asset this year is gunning down 48.6% of attempted base runners this year. While I'm not sure what that's worth to the team with the reduced amount of stealing realitive to past eras, it's not a bad thing. LaRue's CS% is way down from his normal and Javy flat out sucks at nailing base runners. Ross has had a fair number of pass balls, and his FPCT refects his occasional inability to hold onto a ball when thrown to him. It's hard to compare Javy and LaRue to Ross because of their reduced playing times, so....how does this compare to other folks around the NL?

    Code:
            E   FPCT  RF    ZR   PB  SB  CS  CS%    Salary
    Ausmus  1  .998  8.01 1.000  1   22  10 .313    $4,000,000
    Paulino 5  .987  6.82 1.000  4   31  19 .380    $  401,000 
    Lo Duca 4  .990  6.98 1.000  1   34  13 .277    $6,600,823
    Estrada 5  .988  7.29 .875   0   37  9  .196    $3,400,000 
    Barrett 5  .989  7.63 .818   9   37  10 .213    $4,533,333
    In terms of CS% and sallary Ross is a steal. He's keeping the other teams running game in check and mostly holding his own in errors and FPCT. People claim Ross works well with the pitchers but I don't know how you would quantify that (not to mention, "they" seem to say that about most catchers who are going though a rough patch). Three other guys have higher ZR's than Ross, but his ZR isn't totally out of wack.

    At the plate, obviously, is a totally different story.

    Code:
               OBP  SLG  VORP
    Ross      .255 .394  -2.9
    LaRue     .247 .318  -3.9
    Javy      .317 .375   0.9
    It's pretty ugly, no doubt about that. Over the remainder of the year you are betting that LaRue, who is older and is starting to have injury problems is going to out-hit Ross who is younger and is able to go deep when he's in the groove. FWIW, Pecota predicts Ross to end up at a 8.6 VORP over 2007 while they have LaRue -.5. I'll still go with Ross at the plate over the course of the year. Javy has some value as a PH (not much, but some).

    When you look at the random folks I selected, forget it. At the plate, with the exception of one, they are all outproducing all three of Ross, LaRue and Javy combined.

    Code:
               OBP  SLG  VORP
    Ausmus    .341 .372   5.2
    Paulino   .270 .347  -4.3
    Lo Duca   .326 .363   6.3
    Estrada   .307 .437   9.1
    Barrett   .307 .427   5.2
    So I guess my point is, between the rat poison and the noose, I'd have to choose Ross and think Wayne made the right call. Contact extenison or no, he's cheeper, better behind the plate and better at the plate than LaRue.

    Defensivley, Ross is pretty decent compared to some other big name catchers around the NL, especially considering his salary. Offensivley...well, unless he gets last year's magic back, he's pretty offensive right now.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 06-27-2007 at 04:07 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    KC is only on the hook for $2.5M of Larue's salary in 2007. The Reds are paying the other nearly $3M. Ross is at $1.6M and Val is at $1.25M for 2007. The Reds are the ones paying nearly twice as much for the choice to keep Ross as KC is for taking Larue.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    all three of them.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    KC is only on the hook for $2.5M of Larue's salary in 2007. The Reds are paying the other nearly $3M. Ross is at $1.6M and Val is at $1.25M for 2007. The Reds are the ones paying nearly twice as much for the choice to keep Ross as KC is for taking Larue.
    You know what? I totally forgot about that. Don't I feal silly now.

    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    I was going to post that, in effect, the Reds are paying about $4.6M for Ross since they sent $3M to KC in the LaRue deal in order to keep Ross but I see someone beat me to it.

    So, not to beat up on ya' LilAbner, I will say this: Ross has performed much better than I expected, at least defensively. And, having seen him both with the Dodgers and Pads I didn't expect much. He's actually been fairly solid this year defensively. (Still needs work on blocking the plate.)

    Let's face it, catching is a crying need everywhere in the Reds system and all we can hope to do is find someone in a trade to fill that need in the immediate future.

    Rem

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    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Even though Ross has been disappointing at the plate, bottom line is Ross at $4.6M is better than LaRue at $5.5M this year. The deal still works out.

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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Yeah, don't forget to mention the power that Ross has in his bat. He may not connect often, but he's on pace to hit over 20 HR's this year, which isn't bad at all. If he can get his batting average up to 235 (which I believe is his career average), I'd be totally fine with Ross.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 06-27-2007 at 09:14 PM.

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    I'm not particularly enamored with any of the catchers that have been discussed in this thread. That said, Ross is probably the better bargain...which isn't saying much.
    Last edited by BRM; 06-27-2007 at 04:50 PM.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    I believe the Reds are still owed a PTBNL for LaRue, though. Maybe that will make a difference in this (but probably not).

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I'm not particluarly enamored with any of the catchers that have been discussed in this thread. That said, Ross is probably the better bargain...which isn't saying much.
    kind of like asking what type of shoes you want someone to put on before they kick you in the nuts.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    kind of like asking what type of shoes you want someone to put on before they kick you in the nuts.
    What catchers are floating around out there that would provide a better offensive and defensive output for a reasonable cost?

    I'm not saying there aren't any, but I don't recall any real FA's floating around last year that made sense. This year one would have to be acquired via trade. With pitching and a RH power bat being a higher priority, unless we pick up a "Brandon Philips" of the catching world as a throw in on a trade, I'm not sure it makes lots of sense to put catching high up on the priority list.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Member Red Heeler's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    From an offensive production standpoint, all three are aweful this year, so that is a wash. The Reds are saving about $1 million this year with Ross + Valentine versus Larue + ??? OTOH, they could have traded Val and Ross in the offseasons following their career years. Would Larue + ??? + return for Val and Ross be more valuable?

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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Heeler View Post
    From an offensive production standpoint, all three are aweful this year, so that is a wash. The Reds are saving about $1 million this year with Ross + Valentine versus Larue + ??? OTOH, they could have traded Val and Ross in the offseasons following their career years. Would Larue + ??? + return for Val and Ross be more valuable?
    Good post, RH. And, of course, therein lies the rub. Krivsky made a judgement call. Personally, I wouldn't have done it the way Wayne did but (shrug) at this point, it may not be a big deal. The Reds would still be very thin at catcher and still be in last place. The only "plus" I can see by moving Ross and 'Stach' is that we would probably have only two catchers on the roster but, in all honesty, that's just a guess.

    Rem

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I believe the Reds are still owed a PTBNL for LaRue, though. Maybe that will make a difference in this (but probably not).
    With the way LaRue has hit this year, the Reds might just end up owing the Royals a PTBNL???

    Actually, Jason has hit much better this month, .286 in 35 AB's thus far, bringing his season average up to .182. I think LaRue is at the end of his career, unless he wants to continue on in a Chad Moeller type of role with another team. Not sure if his ego could handle that, as he was put-off last year with his diminished role; not sure how he's handling it in KC this year.

    http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/sta...178&statType=1

    I'm OK with Ross's catching, throwing, and power. Less sure of his ability to call and manage a game, and am absolutely sure of his inability to not make an out.

    Ross is a good 2nd catcher/PH. This position needs an obvious upgrade.

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    Re: Did Wayne Really Keep the Wrong Catcher?

    I think (a large) part of LaReu's unhappiness last year was due to the fact that he felt that he lost his job because of injury and wasn't given the chance to win it back. I tend to agree with that perception but, OTOH, Ross was having the year of his life so I can understand going with the 'hot hand'.

    Rem


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