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Thread: Dunns a changin'?

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Dunns a changin'?

    anyone notice last night that Dunn swung(and put in play) the first strike he saw in each AB(I never recall seeing anything like that from him before). He has seemingly changed his approach in June and been much more aggressive early in the count.

    The numbers show it as well. He has halved his BB rate but has also dropped his K rate. His BA and SLG% are way up.

    Code:
    April   88    	 6  	12  	14  	32  	.363  	.511  	.261
    May     103      8      23      16      41      .355    .573    .252
    June  	78  	 7      15 	 7 	24 	.368 	.628 	.308
    Which Dunn is better?
    Last edited by flyer85; 06-27-2007 at 04:27 PM.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    If he can sustain those June rate stats after pitchers adjust to his new approach, I'm all about it. If they stop giving him hittable pitches to start and yet he keeps swinging, well, I think we'll have our answer. Good observation in any case.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Don't we say this every year and then over the course of a season, he still is what he is?

  5. #4
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Don't we say this every year and then over the course of a season, he still is what he is?
    in the years 2004-2006 the lowest BB total Dunn has had in any one month is 13. He has never had a single digit BB total in any non-injured month in his career. He has been only under 13 once, 10 in May of 2003.

    His BB rate this season is the lowest of his career(.119). The previous low was .158 on 2003. He still walks quite a bit but the drop has been noticeable.

    Has he turned a corner in modifying his approach to put more balls in play?
    If so, will it stick?
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.
    That's concerning considering when a player slumps the first stat to take a hit is bat avg, a player who can still walk will be better off during a slump.
    Go Gators!

  8. #7
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.
    that is the $64000 question
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  9. #8
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    that is the $64000 question
    Actually it's a $13 million question....

  10. #9
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Actually it's a $13 million question....
    It is an optionable question as well.
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    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    I think his OPs is significantly higher this year for 0-2 and after
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    With a revised approach such as this, what would you all consider acceptable numbers for Dunn? Assuming that his OBP would drop and his SLG and BA would increase, would you be looking for something like .260/.350/.600? That would put him at a .950 OPS and would be a remarkable improvement IMO, even if he did lose OBP.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #12
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    With a revised approach such as this, what would you all consider acceptable numbers for Dunn? Assuming that his OBP would drop and his SLG and BA would increase, would you be looking for something like .260/.350/.600? That would put him at a .950 OPS and would be a remarkable improvement IMO, even if he did lose OBP.
    If this GPA stuff has any validity then for every 1 point you lose in OBP you have to gain 1.8 points in SLG to break even. At the start of 2007 AD had an OBP of .380 and a SLG OF .513. If he was to OBP .350 this year he would have to slug at a .567 clip to be at his career run-creating norm according to GPA. In answer to your question a line of .260/.350/.600 would be an improvement.

    Code:
    year(s)	obp	slg	ops	gpa
    01--06	0.380	0.513	0.893	0.299
    2007	0.350	0.567	0.917	0.299
    2007	0.350	0.600	0.950	0.308
    For anyone not very familiar (like myself) with Gross Production Average, here is a good article by the person who created it. http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_11_...g_archive.html I am sure this has been on ORG before, but linking it here sure beats searching through past threads.

  14. #13
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Thanks, texasdave. Very informative.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    GPA? Grade Point Average?

    Rem

  16. #15
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    Re: Dunns a changin'?

    Actually, I've liked the 'new' Dunn approach/results. His numbers so far this year are very close to what I envisioned for him when he was in the high minors.

    I've not been a proponent of trading AD before and, if he can continue these results, I'd be even more reluctant about trading him now.

    Rem


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