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Thread: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

  1. #31
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Something else the dunn"Haters" seem incapable of realizing is the following: Using deductive reasoning, why do you think Dunn's BA is lower when there are RISP? Does he all of a sudden become a different player?!!!

    How often is Dunn given absolutely nothing to hit with a RISP in the hopes that he'll either get himself out or walk and allow the pitcher to raise the percentage of achieving a desired outcome SUBSTANTIALLY by facing a substantially weaker offensive player?!

    Dunn can't control what pitchers are willing to give him. They know how deadly he is. When there are runners in scoring position, the pitches that he will see and what the opposing pitcher views as a "desirable outcome" changes SUBSTANTIALLY.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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  3. #32
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Edit: ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASININE LINE-UPS JERRY NARRON TROTS OUT THERE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.

    THE POSITION IN THE BATTING ORDER IN WHICH HE PLACES DUNN IS, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, ABSOLUTELY BEGGING THE OPPOSING TEAM AND PITCHER TO DO EXACTLY WHAT I DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS POST.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  4. #33
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    I actually think the object of the game is to record WINS.
    Funny, I have never seen a batter hit a Win before.

    Adam Dunn has to hit Wins now or else he sucks? That is a new one.

    The fact is that Adam Dunn is underpaid for what he does. That is the state of baseball economics in reality right now. Players that produce runs at the level of Adam Dunn cost $15 million+ per year on the market. That is a fact and it isn't going to change.

    If the Reds want to contend for the World Series they simply have to pay the market rate for players. If they aren't willing to pay the market rate then we are just wasting our time by following the team. I for one am not willing to just passively allow my favorite team to get rid of their best player purely because they don't want to pay him the market rate for a player of his talent. There is no reason why the Reds can't afford to pay Adam Dunn $15 million per year. This city is not that small. The owner has hundreds of millions of dollars. Spend the money to be competitive or sell the team to someone who will. No excuses.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 06-28-2007 at 10:44 PM. Reason: fix quote

  5. #34
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    why do you think Dunn's BA is lower when there are RISP? Does he all of a sudden become a different player?!!!

    How often is Dunn given absolutely nothing to hit with a RISP in the hopes that he'll either get himself out or walk and allow the pitcher to raise the percentage of achieving a desired outcome SUBSTANTIALLY by facing a substantially weaker offensive player?!

    Dunn can't control what pitchers are willing to give him. They know how deadly he is. When there are runners in scoring position, the pitches that he will see and what the opposing pitcher views as a "desirable outcome" changes SUBSTANTIALLY.
    The stats just don't bear this out. His OBP drops with RISP too, from .363 overall to .325. His K rate shoots up from .353(!)overall, to .415(!!) with RISP. He strikes out 41.5% of the time with RISP! With RISP and 2 outs, he K'd 18 out of 33 chances(.545 K rate), ie. he struck out 54.5 % of the time with RISP and two outs!

    From the games I have watched on my MLB TV package (most of them) it looks to me like the pitchers go right after him with RISP. He has dropped in intentional walks from 12 last year with RISP, to only 1 this year. I don't think the other teams are exactly quaking in their boots with Dunn up and RISP.
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  6. #35
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    The stats just don't bear this out. His OBP drops with RISP too, from .363 overall to .325. His K rate shoots up from .353(!)overall, to .415(!!) with RISP. He strikes out 41.5% of the time with RISP! With RISP and 2 outs, he K'd 18 out of 33 chances(.545 K rate), ie. he struck out 54.5 % of the time with RISP and two outs!
    Yet despite this he still leads the team in RBI this year and every year.


    Why focus on the tiny subset of plate appearances you mention while ignoring the majority of Dunn's plate appearances?

    Zooming in on a statistically insignificant sample from one situational scenario serves merely to blind many observers to the big picture. The big picture shows that Dunn produces many more RBI and runs scored than any other Red every season.

    Obviously the situational scenarios in which Dunn excels far exceed the ones in which he fails.

  7. #36
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    The stats just don't bear this out. His OBP drops with RISP too, from .363 overall to .325. His K rate shoots up from .353(!)overall, to .415(!!) with RISP. He strikes out 41.5% of the time with RISP! With RISP and 2 outs, he K'd 18 out of 33 chances(.545 K rate), ie. he struck out 54.5 % of the time with RISP and two outs!

    From the games I have watched on my MLB TV package (most of them) it looks to me like the pitchers go right after him with RISP. He has dropped in intentional walks from 12 last year with RISP, to only 1 this year. I don't think the other teams are exactly quaking in their boots with Dunn up and RISP.
    Maybe because everyone and his brother--and our entire coaching staff--is in his ear telling him he's "a run producer."

    Don't get me even started on what the magnificent poofy haired one says on the matter every day or so.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  8. #37
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Therefore, he's forcing himself to chase pitches not nearly as "fat" even though, in a non-RISP type situation, he would accept the walk and take first base.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  9. #38
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Yet despite this he still leads the team in RBI this year and every year..
    I agree he has a large number of RBIs, and that has value:

    2003 Reds RBI leaders
    1. Sean Casey 80
    2. Aaron Boone 65
    3. Jose Guillen 63
    4. Austin Kearns 58
    5. Adam Dunn 57

    2004 Reds RBI leaders
    1. Adam Dunn 102
    2. Sean Casey 99
    3. D'Angelo Jimenez 67

    2005 Reds RBI leaders
    1. Adam Dunn 101
    2. Ken Griffey Jr. 92
    3. Felipe Lopez 85

    2006 Reds RBI leaders
    1. Adam Dunn 92
    2. Brandon Phillips 75
    3. Ken Griffey Jr. 72
    3. Edwin Encarnacion 72

    2007 Reds RBI leaders
    1. Adam Dunn 52
    2. Ken Griffey Jr. 49
    3. Brandon Phillips 39
    4. Alex Gonzalez 37

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Why focus on the tiny subset of plate appearances you mention while ignoring the majority of Dunn's plate appearances?
    Because Adam Dunn could be SO MUCH better. Even if he merely maintained his normal percentages with RISP, he would knock in 15 to twenty more runs per year....about two wins worth.

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Zooming in on a statistically insignificant sample from one situational scenario serves merely to blind many observers to the big picture.
    Sorry, but Dunn has 277 ABs this year, and 66 of them are with RISP. I don't think you can call 24% of his ABs insignificant. In those 66 ABs, he has 1 double, 3 HRs, and 10 singles. He has struck out 27 times, and he has walked 12 times. The other 13 times he made outs via groundout/ fly out.

    Again, I LIKE Adam Dunn, and think the Reds should only trade him for a great return. But we need to admit that his poor hitting with RISP hurts the Reds, and his trade value.

    One last note: look at his home/road splits:
    in GABP he is hitting .328/.432/.718. On the road he is htting .218/.294/.444. What's up with that? That has got to limit his trade value too.

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    he's forcing himself to chase pitches not nearly as "fat" even though, in a non-RISP type situation, he would accept the walk and take first base.
    Any data to back that up? I remember quite a few of those Ks being of the 'caught looking' variety....
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 06-29-2007 at 01:39 AM.
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Funny, I have never seen a batter hit a Win before.

    Adam Dunn has to hit Wins now or else he sucks? That is a new one.

    The fact is that Adam Dunn is underpaid for what he does. That is the state of baseball economics in reality right now. Players that produce runs at the level of Adam Dunn cost $15 million+ per year on the market. That is a fact and it isn't going to change.

    If the Reds want to contend for the World Series they simply have to pay the market rate for players. If they aren't willing to pay the market rate then we are just wasting our time by following the team. I for one am not willing to just passively allow my favorite team to get rid of their best player purely because they don't want to pay him the market rate for a player of his talent. There is no reason why the Reds can't afford to pay Adam Dunn $15 million per year. This city is not that small. The owner has hundreds of millions of dollars. Spend the money to be competitive or sell the team to someone who will. No excuses.

    C'mon, dude. Let's keep the conversation intelligent.

    You missed or chose to ignore my point entirely. Which was, to be brief, that baseball is about scoring more runs than your opponent. You can do that by focusing on offense and scoring more runs or you can spend all your money on pitching and defense and make the other team score less, or you can find the happy medium.

    My point was that Adam Dunn's salary might be better served - FOR THIS TEAM, FOR THIS PAYROLL - to be spent in other areas. Not on scoring runs. But on run prevention.

    And saying that an owner has to step up and spend 10s of millions more is just naive, at best. Sure he wants to win. But no owner can or frankly should overspend his budget. Not if he wants to be around for a while. So he's going to spend exactly what he can. With our media markets (TV/radio revenue) and stadium revenue (ticket sales/sponsorships), that will add up to about $70 million. Plus or minus some years. It's a fact.

    So should this club pay a good player 18 percent of it. Is he worth 18 percent? That's the question.

    I say no. We rode the Dunn train for as long as I think we financially can. Now's the time to jump off, when he's getting too expensive for our payroll. We turn our attentions to the next generation. Who can produce and fit in the $70 million budget without sacrificing in other facets of the club.

    Trading Dunn should (1) free payroll to better balance this team and (2) bring back more of those next generation players.

    Realize that if we don't trade Junior or Dunn, the 2008 Reds will be almost identical to the 2007 version. I say this is a poorly built club this year. So I certainly don't want to see it take the field again next year.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  11. #40
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    One last note: look at his home/road splits:
    in GABP he is hitting .328/.432/.718. On the road he is htting .218/.294/.444. What's up with that? That has got to limit his trade value too.
    Hey, grayson, I'd like to add that his 4-year home/road splits are the least-talked about topic on the board, but this season and 2005 heavily weight the career numbers:

    Career: .258/.395/.558 123 HR home, .238/.362/.482 98 HR away
    2007: .328/.432/.718 13 HR home, .219/.297/.459 10 HR away
    2006: .231/.362/.502 22 HR home, .236/.368/.479 18 HR away
    2005: .274/.418/.639 26 HR home, .221/.359/.446 14 HR away
    2004: .265/.390/.600 25 HR home, .266/.386/.539 21 HR away

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...unnad01&year=c

    Dunn is still a contributor on the road--he is not dominant, and a small sample this season makes 2007 seem an outlier compared to his proven track record.

    Interestingly enough, his home/road BABIP ratios like this in 2007:

    .435/.247

    ...

    the numbers will normalize over time.

  12. #41
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    The goal for an offensive player is to put runs on the board. Adam Dunn scores runs and drives them in better than any player the Reds have. It would be foolish to ditch him just because you are too cheap to pay him.

    If you want to save money you ditch guys that are overpaid, don't ditch the guys that are underpaid -- like Dunn.

    Ditch guys like Milton, Cormier (we are still paying him), LaRue (still paying him), Stanton, Castro, Ross and Arroyo. They are not earning their salaries. Most of that money will come off the books after this year. So the Reds should have plenty of money to spend on keeping Dunn and adding free agents next year.

    Combine that savings with an increase in payroll and you can make a competitive team. Factor in the good prospects close to the majors (Votto, Bailey, Bruce) and the team will be good. There is no reason why the Reds can't increase the payroll. You guys have been brainwashed by the Schott/Lindner years. The Reds are a profitable franchise. Castellini is rolling in cash. Put up the money to win or else sell the team to someone who will. No excuses.

    Payroll is not a good excuse to hate on Dunn.

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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    I agree that Dunn could produce a few more RBIs. But he averages nearly 100 per year, which isn't bad, so he does produce runs. If we're not judging his "clutch" abilities, it doesn't matter so much when he produces the runs. They all still add equally to the total in the boxscore. It's the pitchers' and defense's jobs to keep the other team from winning, not the hitters'. So in my opinion when Dunn hits his homeruns are neither here nor there, unless you argue that he's either not putting up enough RBI's or that he is not clutch.

  14. #43
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Because Adam Dunn could be SO MUCH better.
    This type of comment from fans who knock Dunn just irritate me to no end.

    This is the whole problem with the Dunn bashers, they dislike him because he isn't what they "want" or "think" he should be. They ignore his very productive yearly numbers because they aren't as good as they "could" be.

    I got an idea, why not appreciate Dunn for what he actually is? He is a run producer year in and year out. A guy who will consistantly hit 40+ HRs, 100+ RBIs, and score 100+ runs. Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who makes his salary, especially when compared to many other major league players making much more and producing a lot less.

  15. #44
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    This type of comment from fans who knock Dunn just irritate me to no end.

    This is the whole problem with the Dunn bashers, they dislike him because he isn't what they "want" or "think" he should be. They ignore his very productive yearly numbers because they aren't as good as they "could" be.

    I got an idea, why not appreciate Dunn for what he actually is? He is a run producer year in and year out. A guy who will consistantly hit 40+ HRs, 100+ RBIs, and score 100+ runs. Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who makes his salary, especially when compared to many other major league players making much more and producing a lot less.
    Music to my ears. Dunn is the cheapest power hitter in the game. He's consistant. And he puts up good numbers for the Reds.
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    Re: ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    Dunn is the cheapest power hitter in the game.
    This is not a factual statement, because several players of elite caliber have contracts signed to buy out their arbitration seasons:

    Albert Pujols will make 15MM next season as part of a 7/100 deal
    Travis Hafner: 3 years, 7 million, and a 4.75 MM club option for 2008
    Victor Martinez: 5 years, 15.5 million and a 7 MM club option for 2010
    Miguel Cabrera: 1 year, 7.4 MM (won his arbitration case)
    Paul Konerko: 5 years, 60 MM (12MM annually through 2010)
    Jermaine Dye: 2 years, 10.5 MM, 7 MM club option in 2007
    Mark Teixeira: 2 years, 15.4 MM (9 MM this season, FA in 2008)
    Jason Bay: 4 years, 18.5MM (5.75 MM in 2008 and 7.5 MM in 2009)

    I pretty much just selected these guys off the top of my head; Dye and Konerko are the only ones to have signed their deals once eligible for FA, so it may not be representative.

    I do agree that 13MM is pretty cheap compared to what run producers receive on the open market. In that context Dunn's production is afforded at below the going rate, which is why it is imperative to develop your own talent.


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