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Thread: Player A and Player B

  1. #46
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Last year, in what most considered a great year for him, Player A hit .274/.388/.569 with 41 HR, 118 RBI, and 18 SB. He was touted as one of the best all-around offensive players in the game and made $13,571,428 for his services.

    This year, Player B is on pace to hit .270/.359/.569 with 45 HR, 108 RBI, and 14 SB. He makes $ 10,500,000 this year and is due $13,500,000 in 2008. He has been routinely criticized for his strikeouts, lack of effort, and underachieving.

    My question is this: If Player B continues at his current level of offensive production, wouldn't he be well worth the salary he is due next year?

    Discuss.
    I'm gonna say that you should ask this question again in September, since Player B has a history of slowing down as the year goes on.

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  3. #47
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Actually, I got that player's OPS+ wrong. It's 131, not 135. Mea culpa.

    Anyway, here's some of his other full seasonal stats: 201 hits, 48 doubles, 8 triples, 14 home runs, 117 RBIs, 45 walks, 44 strikeouts, and 15 double plays. He totaled 667 plate appearances that season too.

    I'm just very curious how many people would much rather have that type of hitting performance than what Dunn provides. High batting average, lots of hits, lots of doubles, and very few strikeouts.

    My bet is most people who can't stand Dunn's game would gladly trade Dunn's stat line in for the above stat line, whereas in reality, they're both just about identical.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    He's a real player, not fictionalized, but he never played for the Reds.

    What I found interesting is the league run environment during that player's season is almost identical to the National League in 2007, and that player also played in a hitter's park for his home park, just like Dunn in 2007.
    Ah ha! Found him.

    This player B also had previous OPS years of 151, 156, 180, 140, 137, 131, and 123, had already won an MVP award and had finished in the top 5 in the voting 2 other years.

    His top 10 age 27 comps include 8 Hall of Famers (Aaron, Joe D., Goslin, Kaline, Musial, Hornsby, Snider, and Simmons).

    Dunn's age 26 comps include 2 (R. Jackson and Killebrew).

    If you'll also notice, this player B was traded during his age 28 season and only OPSed above 140 once more during his career, despite playing against "war era" talent.

    In this case, I'll take Player B...






    "Ducky" Joe Medwick.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  5. #49
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    It's Hall-of-Famer Joe Medwick.
    Correct.

    Now how many people would rather have Medwick's 1939 season over Dunn's 2007 season? How many people wouldn't really care because it'd be similar production?
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  6. #50
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Ah ha! Found him.

    This player B also had previous OPS years of 151, 156, 180, 140, 137, 131, and 123, had already won an MVP award and had finished in the top 5 in the voting 3 years.

    His top 10 age 27 comps include 8 Hall of Famers (Aaron, Joe D., Goslin, Kaline, Musial, Hornsby, Snider, and Simmons).

    Dunn's age 26 comps include 2 (R. Jackson and Killebrew).

    If you'll also notice, this player B was traded during his age 28 season and only OPSed above 140 once more during his career, despite playing against "war era" talent.

    In this case, I'll take Player B...






    "Ducky" Joe Medwick.
    I'm not talking about any previous seasons.

    I'm talking about Medwick's 1939 vs. Dunn's 2007.
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  7. #51
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm not talking about any previous seasons.

    I'm talking about Medwick's 1939 vs. Dunn's 2007.
    Looks like Medwick was right at about league average defensively, based on the limited info we have, which, with offensive stuff otherwise being equal, I'll take Ducky.

    Plus, it's unlikely that Dunn would ever do anything to so infuriate the fans of Detroit that they would pelt him with garbage. That's a plus in my book.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  8. #52
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Plus, it's unlikely that Dunn would ever do anything to so infuriate the fans of Detroit that they would pelt him with garbage. That's a plus in my book.

    Now, Cincinnati... that's another thing.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    For reference purposes only, some other Hall of Fame left fielders' age 27 OPS+ numbers:

    Stargell - 136
    Kiner - 156
    B. Williams - 157
    Simmons - 159
    Yaz - 195
    Musial - 200
    T. Williams - 215 (after missing the previous 3 seasons during WWII)
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  10. #54
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Looks like Medwick was right at about league average defensively, based on the limited info we have, which, with offensive stuff otherwise being equal, I'll take Ducky.

    Plus, it's unlikely that Dunn would ever do anything to so infuriate the fans of Detroit that they would pelt him with garbage. That's a plus in my book.
    As would I for those same exact reasons. But the only difference is a slight advantage for Medwick with the glove; i.e. there is no offensive difference. On one end you have a player who hits over .330 with 201 hits and rarely strikes out and on the other end you've got a guy hitting around .270 and striking out all the time. But add it up, and they're almost equals as an offensive player. That's what's fascinating.

    FWIW, Medwick had 24 win shares that season, which is actually a bit less than I figured he'd have.
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  11. #55
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Anybody who doesn't think a .900 OPS isn't worth 13M in market dollars hasn't seen the market recently. Is he a bargain for that price? Not at all. But in order to get the production you need to win, you sometimes have to pay market price for it. I'd much rather pay Adam Dunn 13M for 10M worth of production than pay Juan Castro 1.5M for -1.5M worth of production....

    The key though, as Cyclone points out, is that there are a number of ways to get to great production. There are very few perfect players (points at Albert Pujols, mid 90's Bonds, and Ted Williams). The level of production we're getting from Dunn, project over a 15 year career, is HoF worthy. That shouldn't be overlooked just because he does it in an "ugly" way or "could be better if...".

    By the way, given the choice between a Medwick style production and Dunn style production, I'd prefer Medwick's. I think it's more fun to watch and more flexible in terms of maximizing the value of it in the context of a surrounding lineup. But I'll take either 8 days a week.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-28-2007 at 06:52 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #56
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    As would I for those same exact reasons. But the only difference is a slight advantage for Medwick with the glove; i.e. there is no offensive difference. On one end you have a player who hits over .330 with 201 hits and rarely strikes out and on the other end you've got a guy hitting around .270 and striking out all the time. But add it up, and they're almost equals as an offensive player. That's what's fascinating.

    FWIW, Medwick had 24 win shares that season, which is actually a bit less than I figured he'd have.
    I was completely enamored by Medwick's age 27 comps (which also included Hal Trosky and Vada Pinson, BTW).

    Lot's talked about Dunn's possible decline, due to "old player skills," but Medwick's a guy that doesn't fall into that category, but declined (though was still above average) anyway, despite playing what should have been 3 peak years against wartime competition.

    I'd never really looked at his career before. Now I can't wait to get my Historical Abstract out and see what it says.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  13. #57
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    RedsManRick and I are on completely the same page here. Dunn... er... Player B is no bargain, but he's not exactly an albatross either. I can't understand why people complain about overpaying for Dunn by 1 or 2 million when we are currently throwing that amount at players who have little to no value at all (Cormier, Castro).

    If we are going to give Player B up, GM WK better have a darn good plan in place to either replace his offensive production or compensate for it by improving other parts of the team. Right now I'm just not confident that a plan like that is in place. I hope I'm wrong.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  14. #58
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I'm gonna say that you should ask this question again in September, since Player B has a history of slowing down as the year goes on.
    That's a valid point, and I'd like to see the FO wait that long to ask the question. The only problem is that most are talking about dealing him in little over a month...
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  15. #59
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Anybody who doesn't think a .900 OPS isn't worth 13M in market dollars hasn't seen the market recently. Is he a bargain for that price? Not at all. But in order to get the production you need to win, you sometimes have to pay market price for it. I'd much rather pay Adam Dunn 13M for 10M worth of production than pay Juan Castro 1.5M for -1.5M worth of production....
    Good points, but until management is able to put together a 25 man roster that is even close to playoff caliber, paying Dunn (or anybody else) 13M for one season (and I hate to say it, but he's gone after that) doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  16. #60
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    Re: Player A and Player B

    Here's a point that I don't think someone directly brought up though there was a comment earlier about streakiness. This of course is a generalization (i.e. it might simply be a unsupported belief). Guys like a Dunn, Howard, or Sexson tend to be very streaky. Whereas production like Medwick's tends to be a little more even keeled.

    While both types of players get the same production ultimately, I wonder if one isn't more valuable if indeed it's a more consistent, steady production (i.e. spreading it out might impact more games than bursts of production might).

    One of my all time favorite players is John Olerud. I would take him over Dunn any day of the week. Interestingly, another firstbaseman beat him out in the MVP voting in 1993 and it was a complete hose job IMHO owing to the power and influence of the long ball. Factor in the defense of Olerud vs Thomas and that year Olerud was clearly superior.
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