I'm no Bill James, so forgive me if I've stumbled across something totally unremarkable.
Our offensive numbers are not bad this year at all. However, watching the games, I've felt all season like this team was not getting any "clutch" hits or coming through when needed most.
But I had no way of backing up this "feeling."
So, I did a little research. I think I may have found a problem.
Check out these numbers:
--The Reds have played 39 games this year decided by 2 runs or less
--The Reds record in those games is 13-26
--I am defining "late innings" as 7th innning on. I am including extra innings and factoring in the couple of times we did not bat in the 9th
--In 18 of those 39 games, the Reds failed to score any runs in the late innings.
--In only 11 of those 39 games did the Reds score more than one run in the late innings.
--In those 39 games, the Reds have played (offense) in 131 innings. They have a TOTAL of 35 runs in those innings.
--This is an average of .27 runs per game over the late innings.
These are not impressive numbers.
I used both wins and losses by the way.
Now, one flaw in this could be the few instances where we were tied in the late innings and wound up scoring a bunch of runs to take it out of the 2 runs or less category.
But overall, by narrowing it down to games with close final scores, I do believe you get a decent view of some of the broader problems at work here.
2007 has been a TOTAL team collapse.