Reds should promote two starting pitchers and more

[Kc61]

Reds should trade Lohse promptly and should make Belisle the long reliever. Livingston and Dumatrait should be promoted and moved into the rotation. Alternative -- make Livingston a rotation starter and Dumatrait in long relief.

Livingston is questionable as a starter because he doesn't throw hard, but he seems to "know how to pitch" well and could be a fourth or fifth starter. Dumatrait hasn't been great and he walks too many, but he is of age now and we might as well see how he does against the big guys. Both have ERAs in the "3"s, have done reasonably well at AAA. I don't think Reds need to wait for them to "dominate" AAA -- move on this now.

Lohse is obviously not going to be re-signed so there is no reason to keep him. As for Belisle, well, I don't see him as a successful starting pitcher and his numbers are starting to show it. We can debate this, but Belisle was more successful, and perhaps can be successful, as a multi-inning reliever. And the Reds can use multi-innings relievers.

In the pen, room must soon be made for Burton and for Bray. Likely Gosling will go down. Stanton or Weathers should be moved to make room for the other, although I wouldn't move Weathers without a good return coming back. (Wouldn't mind Reds keeping Weathers since the team can only win games he pitches.)

Livingston, Dumatrait, Bray, Burton. Then, ultimately, when ready Medlock, although let him conquer AAA first.

P.S. -- Position player side -- Votto, Keppinger, Freel (when ready) and . . . Chris Dickerson. All should come up pretty soon. Hatteberg should be moved to give Votto his shot. Castro seems ready to move on, Keppinger should come up. (Give him some AAA games at shortstop!) Freel, of course, should be ready soon. I would move Moeller to give Ryan his place on the bench. Finally, I would find a place for Dickerson as the fifth outfielder. I think the Reds can use a guy like him for late inning defense in centerfield. Actually, probably makes sense to deal Conine to make room for him. Bench would be Valentin, Freel, Keppinger, Hopper, Dickerson. (Maybe Freel can play some first base against lefties in this scheme.)

All this helps point to the future. And if Dunn or Griffey is dealt, more new blood can join in.

[BearcatShane]

I wouldn't give up on Belisle just yet. I did some research this morning and look at these numbers I found.

In about 230 career innings Matt Belisle has a 4.56 ERA.

In Aaron Harang's first 315 career innings his ERA was 4.97.

You just have to let Belisle learn and adjust. I'd bet his ERA is in the low 4's in 2008.

[Kc61]

I wouldn't give up on Belisle just yet. I did some research this morning and look at these numbers I found.

In about 230 career innings Matt Belisle has a 4.56 ERA.

In Aaron Harang's first 315 career innings his ERA was 4.97.

You just have to let Belisle learn and adjust. I'd bet his ERA is in the low 4's in 2008.

Really disagree. Belisle's major league innings before this year were in the bullpen. He gives up so many hits, gets hit so steadily, that it's hard to see him being a sub 5 ERA starter.

[PuffyPig]

Really disagree. Belisle's major league innings before this year were in the bullpen. He gives up so many hits, gets hit so steadily, that it's hard to see him being a sub 5 ERA starter.

His DIPS ERA this year is 4.37, so he's pitching better than his stats indicate. It's easy to image him with an ERA sub 5, because he's pitching that well now.

He has way more potential than Livingston. Let him start for the rest of the year.

[bucksfan2]

Here is what I do. Livingston and Dumatrait are brought up to the big club. Dumatrait is inserted in Belisle's slot and Livingston pitches long relief. Keppinger and Votto are brought up with the hopes of Hatty being traded and maybe Castro released. I look at trading both Valentine and Conine to teams that may want their tools. I bring up Dickerson and see if he could be usefull as a defensive replacement and also a pinch runner. I stick Lohse in the pen as a set up man or maybe even the closer. I see what I can get in return for Weathers. I also look for the best deal I can get for Dunn or Freel (probably nothing for Freel becasue of the injury). I am sick of seing this team playing the way it is and if they are going to lose 100 games then I want to see the young guys doing it.

[TStuck]

In the scenario above, if you move Hatte, Conine & Valentin....who backs up Votto at first? Also, while I didn't think it possible to have a weaker hitting bench than we currently have, the bench proposed above may just be that.

[Kc61]

In the scenario above, if you move Hatte, Conine & Valentin....who backs up Votto at first? Also, while I didn't think it possible to have a weaker hitting bench than we currently have, the bench proposed above may just be that.

It would not be a powerful bench. But with Keppinger, Freel, Hopper and Valentin you have four guys who can get on base and get base hits. Dickerson's role would be defense and speed in the outfield -- Reds can use that and I'd like to see if he has a future.

As I said in my post, the righty first baseman is an issue, but perhaps Freel or Keppinger could fill in there. Or Hopper.

The point is not to have a fully formed bench for a contending type team. You may have noticed -- the Reds' chances for the World Series this year are not overly strong. The idea is to get a group of bench players who could potentially help in the future and see how they do. They are available, and I think ready. And some of these new faces could actually bring some excitement.

[Redmachine2003]

Belisle has had 8 good starts out of his 16 this year. I would leave him in the Rotation the rest of the year to see if he has what it takes to be a starter.

[bucksfan2]

As I said in my post, the righty first baseman is an issue, but perhaps Freel or Keppinger could fill in there. Or Hopper.

No one platoons at 1b with Votto. I don't care how bad he is doing I dont want to see some manager bench Votto because they dont know if he can handle lefties yet. That could be one of the dumbest ideas to do to one of your best prospects. When Votto comes up the job should be his.

[Red Leader]

No one platoons at 1b with Votto. I don't care how bad he is doing I dont want to see some manager bench Votto because they dont know if he can handle lefties yet. That could be one of the dumbest ideas to do to one of your best prospects. When Votto comes up the job should be his.

Completely agree.

The Reds won't be able to trade EVERYBODY. Likely one of Conine or Valentin will still be on the team and probably both of them. One of those two should be released and the other kept as Votto's BACKUP. No guarantee of playing time for the backup, no platoon, just strictly maybe a once a week or once every two week start for the backup. Let Votto get his cuts in against RH and LH pitchers and learn.

[Benihana]

I leave Belisle in the rotation. I really believe he has what it takes to be a pretty good back-of-the-rotation starter. I call up Dumatrait to take Lohse's place once he is traded. I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff. I do everything I can to trade Hatteberg (package him with Weathers?) and bring up Votto by the end of the month to be the EVERYDAY 1B for the rest of the year.


For the rest of the year, I go with a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Dumatrait
Belisle
Livingston

I also call up Calvin Medlock and Jared Burton to pitch in the bullpen alongside McBeth, Coffey, and Coutlangous for the rest of the year. Let's use this worthless season to see what we got.

[Reds Freak]

I leave Belisle in the rotation. I really believe he has what it takes to be a pretty good back-of-the-rotation starter. I call up Dumatrait to take Lohse's place once he is traded. I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff. I do everything I can to trade Hatteberg (package him with Weathers?) and bring up Votto by the end of the month to be the EVERYDAY 1B for the rest of the year.


For the rest of the year, I go with a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Dumatrait
Belisle
Livingston

I also call up Calvin Medlock and Jared Burton to pitch in the bullpen alongside McBeth, Coffey, and Coutlangous for the rest of the year. Let's use this worthless season to see what we got.

I like these ideas. People forget that Belisle is starting full time for the first time since the minor leagues. I don't think it's realistic to expect a guy to adjust from pitching 70-80 innings a year to 150-200 innings a year in one off season without taking some lumps. Coming into spring training he still didn't know if he was going to start or come out of the bullpen. I'm sure he is feeling that "dead arm" right now, I would even consider skipping a few starts the rest of the way with him to give him a little rest. I leave him in the rotation the rest of the year, give him the off season to work on his stamina, and stick him in the back of the 08 rotation...

[Kc61]

I like these ideas. People forget that Belisle is starting full time for the first time since the minor leagues.... I would even consider skipping a few starts the rest of the way with him to give him a little rest. I leave him in the rotation the rest of the year, give him the off season to work on his stamina, and stick him in the back of the 08 rotation...

Matt Belisle's last starting season was at AAA in 2004. Here are some of his numbers from that season -- 5.26 ERA. 162.2 IP. 192 hits allowed.

I don't know why people think he is going to be an effective starter at the major league level.

[dougdirt]

Matt Belisle's last starting season was at AAA in 2004. Here are some of his numbers from that season -- 5.26 ERA. 162.2 IP. 192 hits allowed.

I don't know why people think he is going to be an effective starter at the major league level.

He is older, has a better idea of what he is doing, has the experience and has better stuff now than he did 3 years ago?

[Kc61]

He is older, has a better idea of what he is doing, has the experience and has better stuff now than he did 3 years ago?

He is also is facing major league hitters, rather than the AAA guys to whom he gave up a 5.26 ERA and 192 hits in 162 innings.